The Diffusion and Permeability of Political Violence in North and West Africa

Abstract

This paper explores the spatial and temporal diffusion of political violence in North and West Africa. It does so by endeavoring to represent the mental landscape that lives in the back of a group leader's mind as he contemplates strategic targeting. We assume that this representation is a combination of the physical geography of the target environment, and the mental and physical cost of following a seemingly random pattern of attacks. Focusing on the distance and time between attacks and taking into consideration the transaction costs that state boundaries impose, we wish to understand what constrains a group leader to attack at a location other than the one that would seem to yield the greatest overt payoff. By its very nature, the research problem defies the collection of a full set of structural data. Instead, we leverage functional data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data project (ACLED) dataset that, inter alia, meticulously catalogues violent extremist incidents in North and West Africa since 1997, to generate a network whose nodes are administrative regions. These nodes are connected by edges of qualitatively different types: undirected edges representing geographic distance, undirected edges representing borders, and directed edges representing consecutive attacks by the same group at the two endpoints. We analyze the resulting network using novel spectral embedding techniques that are able to account fully for the different types of edges. The result is a "map" of North and West Africa that depicts the permeability to violence. A better understanding of how location, time, and borders condition attacks enables planning, prepositioning, and response.3 group at two locations. We analyze the resulting network using novel spectral embedding techniques that combines these different edge types into a "map" of North and West Africa that depicts the permeability to attacks from the perspective of a violent group. When distributions are highly skewed, statistical measures such as averages are useless for planning effective counterinsurgency deployment. This map of permeability reflects the impact of distance, borders, and time and violent group actions, and so provides a first step towards principled planning, prepositioning, and response.The article proceeds as follows. The next section outlines existing literature on the two geographic features that are most likely to influence how attacks are conducted across space and time: the distance between places, and the impediment of state boundaries. Section 3 describes the geographical and temporal distribution of attacks in the region. Section 4 develops novel spectral techniques that model the effects of border costs and analyzes attack location over time. Section 5 discusses the main implications of our work before concluding.

Uncovering the internal structure of Boko Haram through its mobility patterns

“…In recent years, Boko Haram has relocated to Chad, Cameroon and Niger (Matfess 2019). Our results confirm this trend by showing that cross-border crossings have become more frequent (Skillicorn et al 2019).…”

“…Therefore, a frequent approach in terrorism studies is to detect spatially dependent events and selfreinforcing hotspots (Bahgat and Medina 2013). This approach focuses on how different events are linked or how spatial proximity can influence the formation of social networks (Skillicorn et al 2019).…”

“…In recent years, particular emphasis has been given to radical Islamist organisations, whose structure has been found to be resilient even if important social nodes were removed (Medina 2014). In West Africa, network studies have shown that Islamist organisations were capable of travelling long distances (Skillicorn et al 2019), relied on a limited number of key brokers able to establish links with other rebel groups (Walther and Christopoulos 2015), and had a destabilising effect on regional political stability (Dorff et al, 2020). There is little agreement as to the organisational structure of Boko Haram.…”

Femmes et conflits en Afrique de l'Ouest

“…La géographie des attaques menées par les organisations extrémistes affiliés à Al-Qaida et à l'EI a connu de profondes transformations au cours des deux dernières décennies. Dans les premières années qui suivirent l'installation de ces organisations dans la bande sahélo-saharienne, les attaques étaient séparées par de très grandes distances, allant de la Mauritanie au Tchad (Skillicorn et al, 2019). Durant cette période, qui s'étend jusqu'au déclenchement de la guerre civile malienne en 2012, les organisations extrémistes étaient relativement peu contraintes dans leurs déplacements régionaux.…”

Introducing the Spatial Conflict Dynamics Indicator of Political Violence

“…Modern conflicts have a tendency to spill across state boundaries (Salehyan 2009). Faced with increasing pressure from government forces, armed groups often relocate to countries where there is less military capacity or political inclination to fight them (Skillicorn et al 2019). Where borders are porous, borderlands are used as safe havens from which attacks can be conducted, new recruits can be found, and civilians can be targeted.…”