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AbstractThis paper makes three contributions to our understanding of the price discovery process in currency markets. First, it provides evidence that this process cannot be the familiar one based on adverse selection and customer spreads, since such spreads are inversely related to a trade's likely information content. Second, the paper suggests three potential sources for the pattern of customer spreads, two of which rely on the information structure of the market. Third, the paper suggests an alternative price discovery process for currencies, centered on inventory management strategies in the interdealer market, and provides preliminary evidence for that process.
PRICE DISCOVERY IN CURRENCY MARKETSThis paper investigates the price discovery process in the foreign exchange market. Understanding exactly how information becomes embedded in exchange rates is central to current efforts to understand exchange-rate dynamics (see, for example, Evans and Lyons (2002), (2004)). Within microstructure per se there is also a powerful incentive to study foreign exchange trading, since the currency market dwarfs all others. Nonetheless, the overall contours of price discovery in foreign exchange remain murky.Our paper makes three contributions, all of which build on the observation that the foreign exchange market has two tiers, similar to the London Stock Exchange and some bond markets. In one, dealers trade with each other; in the other, dealers trade with (non-dealer) customers. The paper first provides evidence that spreads in the customer market are inversely related to a trade's likely information content, which implies that price discovery in FX cannot be determined by adverse selection. Second, the paper suggests three potential sources for this pattern of customer spreads, two of which are based on the information structure of the market. Finally, the paper proposes a price discovery process centered on dealers' inventory management strategies in the interbank market and provides evidence for that process. Since this process reflects the foreign exchange market's two-tiered structure it has the potential to be relevant in liquid two-tiered markets for other assets.The adverse-selection-based price discovery process, articulated in Glosten and Milgrom (1985) and Easley and O'Hara (1987), among other important works, asserts that dealers build into their price quotes the potential information revealed by a given cu...