The desirability of transitions in demand: Incorporating behavioural and societal transformations into energy modelling

Abstract

Quantitative systems modelling in support of climate policy has tended to focus more on the supply side in assessing interactions among technology, economy, environment, policy and society. By contrast, the demand side is usually underrepresented, often emphasising technological options for energy efficiency improvements. In this perspective, we argue that scientific support to climate action is not only about exploring capacity of “what”, in terms of policy and outcome, but also about assessing feasibility and desirability, in terms of “when”, “where” and especially for “whom”. Without the necessary behavioural and societal transformations, the world faces an inadequate response to the climate crisis challenge. This could result from poor uptake of low-carbon technologies, continued high-carbon intensive lifestyles, or economy-wide rebound effects. For this reason, we propose a framing for a holistic and transdisciplinary perspective on the role of human choices and behaviours in influencing the low-carbon transition, starting from the desires of individuals and communities, and analysing how these interact with the energy and economic landscape, leading to systemic change at the macro-level. In making a case for a political ecology agenda, we expand our scope, from comprehending the role of societal acceptance and uptake of end-use technologies, to co-developing knowledge with citizens from non-mainstream and marginalised communities, and to defining the modelling requirements to assess the decarbonisation potential of shifting lifestyle patterns in climate change and action.

1.5 °C degrowth scenarios suggest the need for new mitigation pathways

“…More plural economic perspectives would need to be taken into account to gain a fuller picture of socioeconomic reality 22,59,60 , e.g., post-Keynesian, ecological and Marxian economics. Such modelling would also need to broaden the considered portfolio of demand-side measures and behavioural changes 4,61,62 . At last, it is clear that the biophysical foundation of economic activity and energy efficiency rebound effects need to be considered in much greater detail 8,23,27 .…”

“…At last, it is clear that the biophysical foundation of economic activity and energy efficiency rebound effects need to be considered in much greater detail 8,23,27 . The necessary detailed discussion of how exactly IAMs would need to change to incorporate some of these features is beyond the scope of this paper, but such discussions are already under way in the literature 8,27,58,61,62 and could be further inspired by current efforts in ecological macroeconomic modelling 59 . Promising developments in these directions are put forward by the MEDEAS IAM modelling framework, which connects biophysical economic insights, system dynamics and input-output analysis 23,34 .…”

The Green Versus Green Trap and a Way Forward

“…Our perspective focuses on the lack of societal buy-in on environmental grounds and their perceptions among society, hindering renewable energy expansion and climate action. It, therefore, comes with a caveat: it focuses on the societal desirability of transitions [29], rather than resistance to change from the energy oligopoly and respective hurdles instead of motives for small investors and local actors, as evident for example in the UK [30], Germany [31], Greece [32], and Spain [33], which renders abandoning pharaonic clean energy projects harder.…”

The UK and German Low-Carbon Industry Transitions from a Sectoral Innovation and System Failures Perspective

“…As transition of the energy-intensive industries progresses in the near future, focus can later be given on specific technological processes, by applying the TIS framework [48] and expand the system failures framework to include the transitional failures proposed by [96]. Finally, Systems of Innovation frameworks have been gaining attention both as climate policy support frameworks [216] and as part of integrative approaches [217,218]: policy implications provided in this study can be coupled with modelled future mitigation pathways [219] to highlight bottlenecks in the industrial sectors examined in this research, and to formulate recommendations on designing transformative policy pathways overcoming them [220,221], as has recently been the case with other qualitative frameworks in relevant industrial case studies [222,223] or otherwise [224,225]. is calcium carbonate, obtained by limestone or chalk [238], which are usually mined from a quarry near the cement plant [236].…”