1.5 °C degrowth scenarios suggest the need for new mitigation pathways

Abstract

Abstract1.5 °C scenarios reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) rely on combinations of controversial negative emissions and unprecedented technological change, while assuming continued growth in gross domestic product (GDP). Thus far, the integrated assessment modelling community and the IPCC have neglected to consider degrowth scenarios, where economic output declines due to stringent climate mitigation. Hence, their potential to avoid reliance on negative emissions and speculative rates of technological change remains unexplored. As a first step to address this gap, this paper compares 1.5 °C degrowth scenarios with IPCC archetype scenarios, using a simplified quantitative representation of the fuel-energy-emissions nexus. Here we find that the degrowth scenarios minimize many key risks for feasibility and sustainability compared to technology-driven pathways, such as the reliance on high energy-GDP decoupling, large-scale carbon dioxide removal and large-scale and high-speed renewable energy transformation. However, substantial challenges remain regarding political feasibility. Nevertheless, degrowth pathways should be thoroughly considered.

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“…Instead, it implies that something needs to happen to reinforce and enable controlled changes to the levels of consumption and waste. Although Chan et al accurately argue that total volumes of consumption and production must decrease among the wealthier countries and economic classes and increase among the more disadvantaged [24,29,30], they specified no actions or processes that could allow these changes to take place, beyond changes in values.…”

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“…Tartalmát illetően ennek a vitának -a normatív álláspontok tisztázása után -arról kell folynia, hogy melyik eszköztől mit remélhetünk. Egyáltalán nem biztos, hogy van olyan megoldás, amely egyszerre teljesíti a fenntarthatóság és a megvalósíthatóság követelményeit; biztosat erről senki sem tud (Keyßer és Lenzen 2021). Hogy a jelenleginél alaposabb mérlegelés alapján válasszunk stratégiát, érdemes megvizsgálni és megvitatni többek között a következő kérdéseket:…”

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“…There are also other decarbonization roadmaps for limiting warming to 1.5°C beyond the model scenarios analysed and discussed here. For example, other researchers have explored pathways that do not assume continued growth in gross domestic production and do not rely on CDR technologies (Keyßer & Lenzen, 2021).…”