The decline of Western European social democracy: Exploring the transformed link between welfare state generosity and the electoral strength of social democratic parties, 1975–2014

Abstract

Social democratic parties are crumbling at the polls. Surprisingly, however, the causes of this demise remain largely unexplored. This article contributes to filling this gap in the research by studying the long-term impact of welfare state generosity on the vote share of social democratic parties in 16 Western European democracies. If the welfare state indeed was a key factor behind social democratic growth in the past, we ask whether the recent plight of these parties is down to a reversal of their previously dominant success factor? The article makes three principal findings. First, we show that social democratic parties primarily benefited electorally from expansive reforms at lower levels of welfare state generosity. Second, we find that this dynamic of diminishing returns also helps explain the demise of the Social Democratic party family in the whole of Western Europe. Lastly, our results reveal that programmatic turns to the right predict electoral losses in the least generous welfare states, whereas such shifts either pass unnoticed or predict vote gains in the most generous ones. We conclude by arguing that the structure of welfare state institutions is one important explanation for variations in the demise of the once powerful Social Democratic party family.

The rightward shift and electoral decline of social democratic parties under increasing inequality

“…We see an equivalent substantive effect to the inequality interaction of a 1 percentage point swing per standard deviation, except that a left-wing economic position provides roughly a 0.5 percentage point greater increase in SD vote under higher levels of inequality, than when combined with a right-wing socio-cultural position. The finding provides support for Hypothesis 3 b and is in line with the recent results of Loxbo et al (2019).…”

“…Social investment policies such as education, skills training, and childcare funding are popular with the public, but moving left on the second dimension may alienate the working class unless combined with greater redistribution. Hence, Loxbo et al (2019) examine the extent that welfare state generosity conditions the electoral impact of shifts to the right on the second dimension. They find that Social Democratic parties only lose votes from rightward turns on the second dimension, when combined with low levels of welfare generosity.…”

“…Initially, this 'Third Way' party strategy seemed to be achieving strong election results in the late 1990s and early 2000s, however, there is much evidence that it has achieved the opposite effect, with substantially declining vote shares across Europe (Arndt 2013;Horn 2020;Karreth et al 2013;Loxbo et al 2019). Many of these parties typically achieved over 40 percent vote share but have recently collapsed into the low 20 s and some even into single digits (see Figure 2).…”

When free choice turns into a pitfall: conditional social protection for immigrants in voluntary unemployment insurance systems

“…This form of social protection has its origins in the workers’ movements of the late 19th century and is still largely in the hands of trade unions (Vandaele, 2006). Some scholars even argue that it is the primary source of legitimacy for trade union membership in Denmark, Finland and Sweden (Lind, 2009; Loxbo et al, 2019). This strong focus on a self-organised solution to the problem of unemployment forms a collective identity among workers into what Ahlquist and Levi (2017) refer to as a ‘community of fate’.…”

Analyzing the Role of Social Media in Strengthening Democracy in Pakistan

“…Many political movements of the world like Ankara, Cairo, Tripoli, Moscow, Kiev, Athens, Madrid, New York, Ferguson, Missouri, Los Angeles, Hong Kong and Istanbul these political movements utilized Facebook and Twitter to spread their voices with the rest of the area (Jost et al, 2018). Facebook pages and groups work throughout conflicts, and Twitter was used to connect politicians and citizens for political electoral information (Loxbo, Hinnfors, Hagevi, Blombäck & Demker, 2019;Borah, 2014;Cogburn & Espinoza-Vasquez, 2011;Johnson, 2011;Pole & Xenos, 2011;Ronzhyn,2016). Obama's Political movement used Facebook for personality upgrading and to engage the followers in a political campaign (Gerodimos & Jakup, 2014).…”