The Decline in Diffuse Support for National Politics

Abstract

This research note considers how to track long-term trajectories of political discontent in Britain. Many accounts are confined to using either survey data drawn from recent decades or imperfect behavioral measures such as voting or party membership as indicators of political disengagement. We instead develop an approach that provides the long view on political disaffection. We first consider time-series data available from repeated survey measures. We next replicate historic survey questions to observe change in public opinion relative to earlier points in time. Finally, we use Stimson’s (1991) dyad-ratios algorithm to construct an over-time index of political discontent that combines data from multiple poll series. This reveals rising levels of political discontent for both specific and diffuse measures of mass opinion. Our method and findings offer insights into the rising tide of disillusionment afflicting many contemporary democracies.

The recession generation? Age-period-cohort dynamics of political trust in six countries severely affected by the 2008 crisis

“…Two recent empirical studies of individual-level panel data also suggest that people's political trust judgements are most susceptible to change in their formative years-and mostly stable after that (Kiley and Vaisey, 2020;Devine and Valgarðsson, 2023). However, studies have long documented aggregate changes in levels of political trust over time within societies: for instance, concerns about declining political trust in the United States date back at least to the 1970s (Miller, 1974;Lipset and Schneider, 1983;Dalton, 2004Dalton, , 2017Citrin and Stoker, 2018) and the same appears to apply at least to several other established democracies (Dalton, 2004(Dalton, , 2017Torcal, 2014;Jennings et al, 2017;Dassonneville and McAllister, 2021).…”

“…A bit of a puzzle has started to emerge in the study of political trust dynamics: on one hand, aggregate levels of trust have been gradually declining in many countries in recent decades (Dalton, 2004(Dalton, , 2017Torcal, 2014;Jennings et al, 2017;Dassonneville and McAllister, 2021) and took a particular dive in many countries following the 2008 financial crisis (Armingeon and Guthmann, 2014;Kroknes et al, 2015;Önnudóttir et al, 2021). On the other hand, individuals appear to be very reluctant to substantially change their trust judgements over time, even during times of political turmoil (Kiley and Vaisey, 2020;Devine and Valgarðsson, 2023).…”

Feelings of Trust, Distrust and Risky Decision-Making in Political Office. An Experimental Study With National Politicians in Three Democracies

“…In 2022, Canadians' trust in all levels of government was below 40% (Proof, 2022). In the UK, Will Jennings et al (2017;Clarke et al, 2018) have drawn on a bricolage of longitudinal survey items to paint a bleak picture of declining trust (and rising distrust) in incumbent politicians, governments and political institutions between 1944 and present day. And in South Africa, declining levels of specific and diffuse political trust have been linked to worrying features of democratic deconsolidation (Booysen, 2015;Gouws & Schulz-Herzenberg, 2016).…”

The (Anti-)Politics of the General Election: Funnelling Frustration in a Divided Democracy

“…It is a thin and dangerous political strategy to obtain and retain power. The paradox, however, is that in adopting explicitly negative, cynical and populist anti-political platforms in order to secure power politicians may themselves unwittingly serve to advance the deconsolidation of democracy (see, for example, Mounk, 2016, 2017;Jennings et al 2017). The challenge for democratic politics is to resist the temptations of shallow populism and instead to take the more difficult path that seeks to redefine, reinvigorate and most of all reimagine the theory and practice of democratic politics in order to close the worrying gap that appears to be growing between the governors and the governed.…”