The current cyclone early warning system in Bangladesh: Providers' and receivers' views

Roy, Chandan; Sarkar, Saroje Kumar; Åberg, Johan; Kovordanyi, Rita

doi:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2015.02.004

Cited by 61 publications

(46 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…Survey data from two Bangladeshi islands show that around 98 % of residents have trust in the early warning system (Paul and Rahman, 2006). More recently a survey of 200 households in coastal areas affected by Cyclone Sidr in 2007 and the less severe Cyclone Mahasen in 2013 found that 90.5 % of the 200 respondents received warnings during Sidr, and this number increased to 96 % during Mahasen (Roy and Kovordanyi, 2015;. It also found that 83 % of the respondents claimed the warnings to be understandable .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Enhancing resilience to coastal flooding from severe storms in the USA: international lessons

Lumbroso

Suckall

Nicholls

et al. 2017

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Recent events in the USA have highlighted a lack of resilience in the coastal population to coastal flooding, especially amongst disadvantaged and isolated communities. Some low-income countries, such as Cuba and Bangladesh, have made significant progress towards transformed societies that are more resilient to the impacts of cyclones and coastal flooding. To understand how this has come about, a systematic review of the peer-reviewed and grey literature related to resilience of communities to coastal flooding was undertaken in both countries. In both Cuba and Bangladesh the trust between national and local authorities, community leaders and civil society is high. As a consequence evacuation warnings are generally followed and communities are well prepared. As a result over the past 25 years in Bangladesh the number of deaths directly related to cyclones and coastal flooding has decreased, despite an increase of almost 50 % in the number of people exposed to these hazards. In Cuba, over the course of eight hurricanes between 2003 and 2011, the normalized number of deaths related to cyclones and coastal floods was an order of magnitude less than in the USA. In low-income countries, warning systems and effective shelter/evacuation systems, combined with high levels of disaster risk-reduction education and social cohesion, coupled with trust between government authorities and vulnerable communities can help to increase resilience to coastal hazards and tropical cyclones. In the USA, transferable lessons include improving communication and the awareness of the risk posed by coastal surges, mainstreaming disaster risk reduction into the education system and building trusted community networks to help isolated and disadvantaged communities, and improve community resilience.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Enhancing resilience to coastal flooding from severe storms in the USA: international lessons

Lumbroso

Suckall

Nicholls

et al. 2017

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…Without vulnerable condition natural hazard will not appear as disaster. In this case defensible capacity building of community as well as long-term preparedness and effective early warning system are very crucial for reducing the losses of lives and property (Roy et al 2015). Therefore, an attempt has been made in this study to examine the effectiveness of disaster mitigation measures undertaken by individuals, GOs and NGOs to minimize the impacts of cyclones in the coastal areas of Bangladesh.…”

Section: _####_ Page 2 Of 11mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Similarly, Hoque et al (2018) depicts the risks of the cyclone for present and future climate change scenarios using geospatial techniques. Correspondingly, a number of papers also have been written focusing community response and coping strategies (Paul and Routray 2010;Islam et al 2017), influencing factors (Hossain 2015), cyclone forecast and warning dissemination (Roy et al 2015) and preparedness aspects of cyclone disaster (Mallick and Vogt 2013). Although many studies have been conducted in Bangladesh on cyclones but the thorough and exhaustive study on the role of vulnerability factors and effectiveness of disaster mitigation measures in coastal Bangladesh is just about limited.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Vulnerability Factors and Effectiveness of Disaster Mitigation Measures in the Bangladesh Coast

Hossain¹,

Paul

2018

Earth Syst Environ

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The major objective of this paper is to identify the vulnerability factors and examine the effectiveness of disaster mitigation measures undertaken by individuals, government and non-government organisations to mitigate the impacts of cyclones in the Bangladesh coast experiencing from Cyclone Aila. The primary data were collected from two villages of southwestern coastal areas of Bangladesh using questionnaire survey and interviews of the key informants. The data were analysed using the descriptive and inferential statistics. This paper reveals that the disaster management measures have a significant role to lessen the impacts of the cyclonic event, especially in pre-disaster preparedness, cyclone warning message dissemination, evacuation and post-disaster rehabilitation. The households, who have access to shelter, find weather forecast regularly and adopted pre-disaster awareness measures are relatively less susceptible to hazard's impacts. The disaster management measures undertaken by individuals and GOs and NGOs help coastal people to save their lives and property from the negative impacts of cyclones. The analysis shows that the NGOs' role is more effective and efficient than the GOs in cyclone disaster management. This paper identifies distance to shelter, participation in disaster training, efficient warning, etc. as the influential factors of vulnerability cyclones. The analysis finds the households as less affected who have adopted disaster preparedness measures. However, this paper concludes that the effective and proper disaster management and mitigation measures are very crucial to shield the lives and properties of the Bangladeshi coastal people.

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“…• Roy, C., Sarkar, S. K., Åberg, J., & Kovordanyi, R. (2015). The current cyclone early warning system in Bangladesh: Providers' and receivers ' views.…”

Section: Studies Conducted In This Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…First study: Evaluation of the efficiency of a cyclone early warning system. The primary goal of this study was to elicit the views both of the meteorologists at the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) and of the residents in the coastal areas of Bangladesh on the current cyclone early warning system in Bangladesh.Research article published on the basis of the findings of this study:• Roy, C., Sarkar, S. K., Åberg, J., & Kovordanyi, R. (2015). The current cyclone early warning system in Bangladesh: Providers' and receivers' views.…”

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confidence: 99%

An Informed System Development Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity Forecasting

Roy

2016

Linköping Studies in Science and Technology. Dissertations

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Introduction: Tropical Cyclones (TCs) inflict considerable damage to life and property every year. A major problem is that residents often hesitate to follow evacuation orders when the early warning messages are perceived as inaccurate or uninformative. The root problem is that providing accurate early forecasts can be difficult, especially in countries with less economic and technical means. Aim:The aim of the thesis is to investigate how cyclone early warning systems can be technically improved. This means, first, identifying problems associated with the current cyclone early warning systems, and second, investigating if biologically based Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) are feasible to solve some of the identified problems.Method: First, for evaluating the efficiency of cyclone early warning systems, Bangladesh was selected as study area, where a questionnaire survey and an in-depth interview were administered. Second, a review of currently operational TC track forecasting techniques was conducted to gain a better understanding of various techniques' prediction performance, data requirements, and computational resource requirements. Third, a technique using biologically based ANNs was developed to produce TC track and intensity forecasts. Systematic testing was used to find optimal values for simulation parameters, such as feature-detector receptive field size, the mixture of unsupervised and supervised learning, and learning rate schedule. Five types of 2D data were used for training. The networks were tested on two types of novel data, to assess their generalization performance. Results:A major problem that is identified in the thesis is that the meteorologists at the Bangladesh Meteorological Department are currently not capable of providing accurate TC forecasts. This is an important contributing factor to residents' reluctance to evacuate. To address this issue, an ANN-based TC track and intensity forecasting technique was developed that can produce early and accurate forecasts, uses freely available satellite images, and does not require extensive computational resources to run. Bidirectional connections, combined supervised and unsupervised learning, and a deep hierarchical structure assists the parallel extraction of useful features from five types of 2D data. The trained networks were tested on two types of novel data: First, tests were performed with novel data covering the end of the lifecycle of trained cyclones; for these test data, the forecasts produced by the networks were correct in 91-100% of the cases. Second, the networks were tested with data of a novel TC; in this case, the networks performed with between 30% and 45% accuracy (for intensity forecasts). Conclusions:The ANN technique developed in this thesis could, with further extensions and up-scaling, using additional types of input images of a greater number of TCs, improve the efficiency of cyclone early warning systems in countries with less economic and technical means. The thesis work also creates opportunities for furthe...

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The current cyclone early warning system in Bangladesh: Providers' and receivers' views

Cited by 61 publications

References 42 publications

Enhancing resilience to coastal flooding from severe storms in the USA: international lessons

Enhancing resilience to coastal flooding from severe storms in the USA: international lessons

Vulnerability Factors and Effectiveness of Disaster Mitigation Measures in the Bangladesh Coast

An Informed System Development Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity Forecasting

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