The core‒periphery pattern of European business cycles: A fuzzy clustering approach

Historical decoupling in the EU: Evidence from time-frequency analysis

“…Moreover, these conclusions are also consistent with Ahlborn and Wortmann (2018) who discuss whether Germany should be used as a reference country of the EU cycle and emphasise the important role of the French business cycle. In Figure 4, we also focus on the southern European countries (Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain) and the comovement of their business cycles with that of the EU countries.…”

“…Moreover, we confirm the conclusions of Ahlborn and Wortmann (2018) about the decoupling of Germany after the Hartz reforms were applied and the conclusions of Aguiar-Conraria and Soares (2011) who identify France as a country leading the common euro area business cycle. Secondly, we apply frequency domain techniques to assess the dynamic properties of times series and their comovements including phase shift enabling to identify spill-over effect directions and asymmetries of business cycle shocks of causal relationships which is quite unique in this field.…”

“…find cyclical divergence between the UK regions and the Euro cycle and Barrios and Lucio (2003), as well as Montoya and de Haan (2008) find regional business cycle convergence in the EU. However, Artis et al (2011) find no signs of cyclical convergence among the EU15 regions, Landesmann (2003) points out that differentiation across regions and countries is particularly large in the Central and Eastern Europe due to the industrial 'up-grading' and remaining 'locked in' in low-skill areas of production and Monfort et al 2013, Bandrés et al (2017) or Ahlborn and Wortmann (2018) show that asymmetries have remained unchanged up to now. In addition, Ahlborn and Wortmann (2018) point out the decoupling of Germany and provide evidence that the German business cycle cannot be used as a proxy for the euro area cycle.…”

Fiscal policy, government size and EMU business cycle synchronization

“…This may be troubling for the operation of EMU policy, as Germany's size allows great influence; however, despite Germany's size, it is not highly influential in synchronizing with the cycle of other European countries, provoking the idea that is not only Greece that is not suitable for the common currency but Germany also. Ahlborn and Wortmann () also found evidence of a lack of synchronization between Germany and other countries’ business cycles. They suggest that France would be a better candidate as an exemplar of a core EMU business cycle.…”

¿es Diferente El Ciclo Económico De La Región De Magallanes Respecto Del Ciclo Económico Nacional?

“…No es de extrañar esta preocupación, si se considera el gran impacto que tienen las crisis económicas en el tejido productivo y en el mercado laboral, efectos que se han podido ver con claridad en la última gran crisis económica vivida el año 2008, la cual afectó a muchos países del mundo, revitalizando el interés por su estudio a nivel internacional (Ahlborn & Wortmann, 2017;Mayer et al 2016).…”