The contribution of reduced COVID-19 test time in controlling the spread of the disease: A simulation-based approach

Abstract

The novel coronavirus COVID-19 has known a large spread over the globe threatening human health. Recommendations from WHO and specialists insist on testing on a mass scale. However, health systems do not have enough resources. The current process requires the isolation of testees in the hospitals’ isolation rooms for several hours until the test results are revealed, limiting hospitals’ capacities to test large numbers of cases. The aim of this paper was to estimate the impact of reducing the COVID-19 test time on controlling the pandemic spread, through increasing hospitals’ capacities to test on a mass scale. First, a discrete-event simulation was used to model and simulate the COVID-19 testing process in Morocco. Second, a mathematical model was developed to demonstrate the effect of accurate identification of infected cases on controlling the disease’s spread. Simulation results showed that hospitals’ testing capacities could be increased six times if the test duration fell from 10 hours to 10 minutes. The reduction of test time would increase testing capacities, which help to identify all the infected cases. In contrast, the simulation results indicated that if the infected population is not accurately identified and no precautionary measures are taken, the virus will continue to spread until it reaches the total population. Reducing test time is a vital component of the response to the COVID-19 pandemic. It is essential for the effective implementation of policies to contain the virus.

Using simulation modelling and systems science to help contain COVID‐19: A systematic review

“…The simulation models were mainly used to assess the impact of COVID‐19 on an organization's workflow and emphasized its optimization (Allen, Bhanji, et al, 2020 ; Das, 2020 ; de Brito Jr et al, 2021 ; Kim et al, 2021 ; VanDeusen et al, 2021 ; Zeinalnezhad et al, 2020 ). Meanwhile, DES was also applied to process analysis and optimization of service facilities that had effects on COVID‐19 spread, including testing facility (Çaglayan et al, 2022 ; El Hage et al, 2021 ; Gowda et al, 2021 ; Saidani et al, 2021 ; Saidani & Kim, 2021 ), vaccination centres (Pilati et al, 2021 ) and COVID‐19‐related hospitals (Frichi et al, 2021 ; Melman et al, 2021 ). DES research was also used to investigate different interventions for minimizing transmission risk in lab facilities (Lim et al, 2020 ).…”

SARS-CoV-2 computer simulation of sterilization via electrical resistance in air conditioning

“…As airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is still being studied, the concentration of airborne contaminated particles has not been defined (ZHOU et al, 2021). However, it is known that there is enough risk to generate a probable infection, making confined environments a reasonable degree of risk (FRICHI et al, 2022). Thus, an enclosed environment with refrigeration is suitable place that favors the spread of viruses (CHAN et al, 2011).…”

“…Studies have shown that the higher the humidity, the greater are the chances of these micro droplets colliding with other micro droplets of water, present in the air, thus becoming heavier and falling to the ground faster (MIGUEL e BABAK, 2020;CHAN, 2011;PRUSSIM, 2018;WAYMER, 2020). Obviously, this decreases the probability of spreading the disease through the air, which is one of the most important modes of dissemination (FRICHI et al, 2022).…”