The Consequences of Not Knowing Low- and High-Latitude Climate Sensitivity

Rind, David

doi:10.1175/2007bams2520.1

Cited by 32 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 143 publications

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“…The temperature gradient is strengthened at upper levels and weakened at lower levels, though the spread between models is still very large due to uncertainty over the temperature in both the tropical and polar regions (Rind 2008). In general, the AR4 models predict that the storm tracks will shift polewards in the future, in line with the change in the jet streams (Yin 2005).…”

Section: (B) Storm Tracksmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamical influences on European climate: an uncertain future

Woollings

2010

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A.

143

116

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Climate science is coming under increasing pressure to deliver projections of future climate change at spatial scales as small as a few kilometres for use in impacts studies. But is our understanding and modelling of the climate system advanced enough to offer such predictions? Here we focus on the Atlantic-European sector, and on the effects of greenhouse gas forcing on the atmospheric and, to a lesser extent, oceanic circulations. We review the dynamical processes which shape European climate and then consider how each of these leads to uncertainty in the future climate. European climate is unique in many regards, and as such it poses a unique challenge for climate prediction. Future European climate must be considered particularly uncertain because (i) the spread between the predictions of current climate models is still considerable and (ii) Europe is particularly strongly affected by several processes which are known to be poorly represented in current models.

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Section: (B) Storm Tracksmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamical influences on European climate: an uncertain future

Woollings

2010

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A.

143

116

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“…In the long-term projections described above, there is a wellknown conflict which limits the change in midlatitude circulation; in the lower troposphere the meridional temperature gradient decreases due to amplified Arctic warming, while in the upper troposphere it increases due to amplified tropical warming [38]. In recent years, the rapid Arctic warming has been conspicuous against the backdrop of the hiatus in global mean warming.…”

Section: Amplified Arctic Warming and Emerging Changes? Recent Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

Persistent Extratropical Regimes and Climate Extremes

Hoskins

Woollings

2015

Curr Clim Change Rep

142

122

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Some studies have suggested a recent increase in high-impact persistent circulation regimes in the extratropics. In this brief review paper, we discuss some aspects of this work and also consider more broadly how regimes such as blocking and stationary Rossby wave patterns may be altered under climate change. The amplified Arctic warming is discussed as one of several factors influencing the atmospheric dynamics from the equator to the poles. Some theoretical arguments are given alongside discussion of observational and modelling results. We include consideration of climate model skill and statistical aspects of the problem linking the distribution of climate variables to the extremes.

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“…This is in contrast with weather forecasting where such an approach yields better results (e.g. Krishnamurti et al 2000), because according to Rind (2008), the model response here is dominated by atmospheric dynamics. Thus, errors in numerical weather prediction models, that are solving the same dynamical equations, are bound to be minimised when averaged.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 85%

“…Furthermore, Rind (2008) doubts that uncertainties in climate model responses, which are largely due to different model physics, will be reduced by a multi-model approach. Different physical parameterisations imply solving different equations and "averaging different formulations" may not produce an improved result.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An assessment of global and regional climate change based on the EH5OM climate model ensemble

2009

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An analysis of climate change for global domain and for the European/ Mediterranean region between the two periods, (representing the twentieth century or "present" climate) and 2041-2070 (representing future climate), from the three-member ensemble of the EH5OM climate model under the IPCC A2 scenario was performed. Ensemble averages for winter and summer seasons were considered, but also intra-ensemble variations and the change of interannual variability between the two periods. First, model systematic errors are assessed because they could be closely related to uncertainties in climate change. A strengthening of westerlies (zonalization) over the northern Europe is associated with an erroneous increase in MSLP over the southern Europe. This increase in MSLP is related to a (partial) suppression of summer convective precipitation. Global warming in future climate is relatively uniform in the upper troposphere and it is associated with a 10% wind increase in the subtropical jet cores. However, spatial irregularities in the low-level temperature signal single out some regions as particularly sensitive to climate change. For Europe, the largest near-surface temperature increase in winter is found over its north-eastern part (more than 3 • C), and the largest summer warming (over 3.5 • C) is over south Europe. For south Europe, the increase in temperature averages is almost an order of magnitude larger than the increase in interannual variability. The magnitude of the warming is larger than the model systematic error, and the spread among the three model realisations is much smaller than the magnitude of climate change. This further supports the significance of estimated future temperature change. However, this is not the case for precipitation, implying therefore larger uncertainties for precipitation than for temperature in future climate projections.C. Branković (B) · L. Srnec · M. Patarčić Croatian Meteorological and Hydrological Service (DHMZ),

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The Consequences of Not Knowing Low- and High-Latitude Climate Sensitivity

Cited by 32 publications

References 143 publications

Dynamical influences on European climate: an uncertain future

Dynamical influences on European climate: an uncertain future

Persistent Extratropical Regimes and Climate Extremes

An assessment of global and regional climate change based on the EH5OM climate model ensemble

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