An assessment of global and regional climate change based on the EH5OM climate model ensemble

Branković, Čedo; Srnec, Lidija; Patarčić, Mirta

doi:10.1007/s10584-009-9731-y

Cited by 19 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 52 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…If the warming trend continues over the next 30 years similarly to the studied period 1980-2009, it can be expected, that the studied growing area may proceed to the third climatic maturity group. This was presented with different models (Jones et al 2005, Branković et al 2010, which represent an increase of GDD of around 12 units or more per year. Our results show the same trends.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Reactions of grape varieties to climate changes in North East Slovenia

Vršič¹,

Vodovnik²

2012

Plant Soil Environ.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This work examined the trend of changes in temperature from 1950 to 2009 recorded by the Maribor meteorological station, and from 1980 to 2009 the dynamics of grape ripening of early-, medium late-, and late-ripening vine varieties in the Slovenian Styria wine-growing region in North East Slovenia. Based on the data associated with the content of soluble solids, total acidity, and the recommended date of harvest in a particular year, the trends towards shortening of the grapevine growing period were calculated. In general, temperature changes were more significant since 1980 than between 1950 and 1979. The mean annual and seasonal temperature significantly increased, i.e. 0.06°C per year. The growing season was shortened in all studied varieties from 15 to 27 days. Trends showed significantly decreasing content of total acidity, which can be considered explicitly as a consequence of higher temperatures during the growth period and ripening of grape berries. Grapes now ripen at temperatures which are approximately by 2°C higher than 30 years ago. Regarding the total acidity content of the late-ripening varieties, the influence of higher temperatures is positive. Minor changes were found in precipitations rates.

show abstract

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Climate models forecast that the average global temperature will rise in the next 50 years (Branković et al 2010). Milder winters and warmer summers are expected and extremely high temperatures will occur more often, although the risk of low temperatures is expected to be lower (Kohler 2009).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Reactions of grape varieties to climate changes in North East Slovenia

Vršič¹,

Vodovnik²

2012

Plant Soil Environ.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Because the positive precipitation bias in the winter over western Europe is reduced in RegCM(ERA40), it can be argued that the errors from lateral boundaries influence the regional model biases; the excessive westerlies from the Atlantic in the global model (cf. Bran ković et al 2010) are probably responsible for the overestimation of precipitation observed in the RegCM over western Europe during the winter. EOF analyses revealed that the observed T2m pattern of interannual variation is best reproduced by RegCM EOF1 in the winter.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Near-future climate change over Europe with focus on Croatia in an ensemble of regional climate model simulations

Branković¹,

Patarčić²,

Güttler³

et al. 2012

Clim. Res.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The RegCM climate model was used at a 35 km resolution to downscale the 3-member global ECHAM5/MPI-OM ensemble based on the IPCC A2 scenario covering the EuropeanMediterranean domain. Within the reference climate (1961−1990), the model high 2 m temperatures (T2m) were reduced and low temperatures were increased relative to verification in a large portion of the domain. Precipitation was underestimated in summer over the Mediterranean region but was overestimated over western Europe in winter, probably due to excessive westerlies in the global model. When RegCM was forced by ERA-40, the dominant errors in the summer T2m appear to be genuine RegCM errors, but a large fraction of errors in winter precipitation was imported from the lateral boundaries. In the near future (2011−2040), the summer T2m is projected to increase by +1.8°C over southwest Europe. The simulated change in precipitation is small and is significant only in regions around the Mediterranean. The wetter north and drier south, a major feature in projections of the European winter climate in the late 21st century, is not predicted for the near future. Similarly, summer drying is confined to western Europe in contrast to nearly continental scale drying observed in projections of the late 21st century. This finding may influence the approaches for adaptation to climate change in the first half and at the end of this century. The effects of downscaling at small scales are analysed for the case of Croatia. The spatial distribution of the number of days with extreme T2m and precipitation in RegCM is consistent with observations. However, this metric is generally underestimated, indicating that over complex orography, even higher horizontal resolution is needed to better resolve climate extremes.

show abstract

“…Warming in western and northern Europe is projected to increase between 2.5 and 4.5°C by the end of the 21st century, and most climate models predict an increase in precipitation rates during winter (Schultz & Lebon 2005). In the last 20 yr, warming trends have been noted in all periods of the year (Brankovi ć et al 2010). In the Northern Hemisphere warming will be stronger in the cooler half of the year.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trends in climate parameters affecting winegrape ripening in northeastern Slovenia

Vrič¹,

utar²,

Pulko³

et al. 2014

Clim. Res.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This study examined the structure and trends in climate parameters that were important for grapevine growing between 1950 and 2009 in the wine-growing region of Styria in NE Slovenia. The study also included the dynamics of grape ripening and the timing of harvest for 4 varieties grown in the region between 1980 and 2009. Temperature and precipitation characteristics from 3 stations (Celje, Jeruzalem, and Maribor) in the region were organized into annual and growing-season periods and were used to assess the effects on the different varieties and on wine quality. Based on the data associated with the content of soluble solids, total acidity, and the recommended date of harvest for a particular year, trends towards earlier maturity of 12−25 d were observed. In general, temperature changes were more significant after 1980 than between 1950 and 1979. The mean annual and seasonal temperatures (1980−2009) increased significantly, by 0.4 to 0.6°C per decade. The average growing-season warming rates were driven particularly by changes in maximum temperatures, with significant increases in the number of days with T max > 30°C. Growing-season warming has also resulted in changes in heat accumulation indices, with significant increases since 1980. Changes in temperature parameters show strong correlations with harvest dates and fruit composition. Trends toward higher sugar levels and lower total acidity are a consequence of higher temperatures during the ripening of the berries. Grapes now ripen at temperatures that are approximately 1.2−1.8°C higher than 30 yr ago. For varieties that ripen early, the temperatures are predicted to become too hot to produce high-quality wines.

show abstract

An assessment of global and regional climate change based on the EH5OM climate model ensemble

Cited by 19 publications

References 52 publications

Reactions of grape varieties to climate changes in North East Slovenia

Reactions of grape varieties to climate changes in North East Slovenia

Near-future climate change over Europe with focus on Croatia in an ensemble of regional climate model simulations

Trends in climate parameters affecting winegrape ripening in northeastern Slovenia

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About