The composite link between technological change and employment: A survey of the literature

Abstract

The role played by technological change in employment trends has long been debated and investigated, but the evidence has proven to be inconclusive. This paper aims to shed light on this topic by critically reviewing a broad and heterogeneous body of literature on the employment implications of technical progress. To this purpose, it briefly discusses the main theories and models that underpin the empirical analysis and reviews the literature following two main criteria, namely, the proxy for technological change and the level of analysis. It also accounts for the effect of technical progress on both overall employment and on distinct occupational, educational and demographic groups. Particular attention is devoted to the results of some very recent studies that attempt to unfold the impact of complex automation technologies, especially robots, and to provide a preliminary account of the evolution, distribution, challenges and potential of Artificial Intelligence.

Technological interdependencies and employment changes in European industries

“…3 A literature review and a summary of the theoretical debate on the different compensation mechanisms at work can be found in Vivarelli (2007Vivarelli ( , 2014, Calvino and Virgillito (2018), Heijs et al (2019), Staccioli and Virgillito (2020) and Mondolo (2021). Reviews highlight that R&D expenditures is one of the most common proxies for innovation, that sectoral and firm level analysis are both widely performed and that, concerning the results obtained, there is a general tendency towards a positive effect of R&D innovation on employment, even if it is mainly found with respect to High-Tech sectors (Bogliacino and Vivarelli, 2012).…”

Robotization, employment, and income: regional asymmetries and long-run policies in the Euro area

“…Undoubtedly, industrial robots allow to produce more (when not even to perform tasks otherwise impossible for humankind) in less time, with fewer errors and lower costs than human labor (Dauth et al 2019 ; Graetz and Michaels 2018 ). However, the literature does not agree on the possible economic and social consequences of the adoption of such technology in all productive activities currently performed by humans (see Mondolo 2021 for a comprehensive discussion of the relevant literature).…”

People versus machines: The impact of being in an automatable job on Australian worker’s mental health and life satisfaction

“…Given these changes researchers have sought to identify what makes work automatable and which segments of the workforce are especially vulnerable. Over recent years, the prevailing theory has shifted from the so-called 'skills-biased technological change' hypothesis (SBTC) to the 'routine-biased technological change' (RBTC) hypothesis (Goos, Manning, & Salomons, 2014;Mondolo, 2020). Early empirical evidence initially supported the SBTC hypothesis, which theorises that technological innovations are disproportionately automating work which requires no, or limited, formal education and training (Katz & Murphy, 1992;Katz & Autor, 1999;Acemoglu, 2002;Katz & Goldin, 2009).…”