The Climate of the Mediterranean Region in Future Climate Projections

Planton, Serge; Lionello, Piero; Artale, V.; Aznar, R.; Carrillo, Adriana; Colin, Jeanne; Congedi, Letizia; Dubois, Clotilde; Elizalde, Alberto; Gualdi, Silvio; Hertig, Elke; Jacobeit, Jucundus; Jordà, Gabriel; Li, Laurent; Mariotti, Annarita; Piani, C.; Ruti, Paolo; Sánchez-Gómez, Emilia; Sannino, Gianmaria; Sevault, Florence; Somot, Samuel; Tsimplis, Michael

doi:10.1016/b978-0-12-416042-2.00008-2

Cited by 58 publications

(55 citation statements)

References 84 publications

(57 reference statements)

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“…Significant progresses has been made on climate projections for the Mediterranean region, both through new models (e.g., Li et al 2012) and new simulations (e.g., Planton et al 2012;Gualdi et al, 2013). Besides dynamical downscaling by regional climate models, statistical downscaling is a major tool to derive climate change projections at regional or even local scales.…”

Section: Climate Projectionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The climate of the Mediterranean region: research progress and climate change impacts

et al. 2014

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Section: Climate Projectionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The climate of the Mediterranean region: research progress and climate change impacts

et al. 2014

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“…Several studies state that the Mediterranean region is very likely to become dryer and warmer in future, as global warming continues (e.g., [5][6][7][8][9]). In consequence, the area is expected to face serious problems, such as agricultural production losses, land degradation and habitat losses [10].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Combined Impacts of Medium Term Socio-Economic Changes and Climate Change on Water Resources in a Managed Mediterranean Catchment

Stefanova

Hesse

Krysanova

2015

Water

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Abstract:Climate projections agree on a dryer and warmer future for the Mediterranean. Consequently, the region is likely to face serious problems regarding water availability and quality in the future. We investigated potential climate change impacts, alone (for three scenario periods) and in combination with four socio-economic scenarios (for the near future) on water resources in a Mediterranean catchment, whose economy relies on irrigated agriculture and tourism. For that, the Soil and Water Integrated Model (SWIM) was applied to the drainage area of the Mar Menor coastal lagoon, using a set of 15 climate scenarios and different land use maps and management settings. We assessed the long-term average seasonal and annual changes in generated runoff, groundwater recharge and actual evapotranspiration in the catchment, as well as on water inflow and nutrients input to the lagoon. The projected average annual changes in precipitation are small for the first scenario period, and so are the simulated impacts on all investigated components, on average. The negative trend of potential climate change impacts on water resources (i.e., decrease in all analyzed components) becomes pronounced in the second and third scenario periods. The applied socio-economic scenarios intensify, reduce or even reverse the climate-induced impacts, depending on the assumed land use and management changes. OPEN ACCESSWater 2015, 7 1539

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“…Later on, Carillo et al (2012) analysed an ensemble of models and found a large spread on the steric component of the Mediterranean sea level rise which depends on Atlantic boundary conditions. A review of the studies dealing with Mediterranean climate projections is presented in Planton et al (2012). The regional coupled models intercomparison study by Dubois et al (2012) presented Mediterranean Sea projections under A1B scenario for 1950-2050 and found a decrease in the heat loss and an increase in water loss over the ocean, which may strongly impact the Mediterranean water masses and the associated MTHC.…”

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“…Thorpe and Bigg 2000;Somot et al 2006;Planton et al 2012). Mediterranean regional climate projections have also been already performed in the frame of the FP5 PRUDENCE project (Christensen et al 2007) with the A2 scenario in the study by Somot et al (2006), who found an increase of water loss and a decrease of the heat loss over the basin associated to a warming and salting of Mediterranean waters.…”

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Mediterranean Sea response to climate change in an ensemble of twenty first century scenarios

et al. 2015

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to quantify the socio-economic uncertainty. Our 6-member scenario simulations display a warming and saltening of the Mediterranean. For the 2070-2099 period compared to , the sea surface temperature anomalies range from +1.73 to +2.97 °C and the SSS anomalies spread from +0.48 to +0.89. In most of the cases, we found that the future Mediterranean thermohaline circulation (MTHC) tends to reach a situation similar to the eastern Mediterranean Transient. However, this response is varying depending on the chosen boundary conditions and socio-economic scenarios. Our numerical experiments suggest that the choice of the near-Atlantic surface water evolution, which is very uncertain in General Circulation Models, has the largest impact on the evolution of the Mediterranean water masses, followed by the choice of the socio-economic scenario. The choice of river runoff and atmospheric forcing both have a smaller impact. The state of the MTHC during the historical period is found to have a large influence on the transfer of surface anomalies toward depth. Besides, subsurface currents are substantially modified in the Ionian Sea and the Balearic region. Finally, the response of thermosteric sea level ranges from +34 to +49 cm (2070-2099 vs. 1961-1990), mainly depending on the Atlantic forcing.

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The Climate of the Mediterranean Region in Future Climate Projections

Cited by 58 publications

References 84 publications

The climate of the Mediterranean region: research progress and climate change impacts

The climate of the Mediterranean region: research progress and climate change impacts

Combined Impacts of Medium Term Socio-Economic Changes and Climate Change on Water Resources in a Managed Mediterranean Catchment

Mediterranean Sea response to climate change in an ensemble of twenty first century scenarios

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