The China Factor in the U.S. “Reengagement” With Southeast Asia: Drivers and Limits of Converged Hedging

Abstract

This article argues that the U.S.–Southeast Asia relations under Obama have been driven and limited by a “partially converged hedging” process between the two sides. On the one hand, the United States has sought to push back and hedge against the longer‐term risks of a rising challenger by mobilizing its alignment and diplomatic assets in Asia. The structural imperative, however, has been conditioned by a calculation of not wanting to be rigidly locked in any regional problems. On the other hand, the ASEAN states have correspondingly hedged against the uncertainty surrounding China's rise by leveraging on the United States' enhanced engagement. This driver, nonetheless, has also been conditioned by a fundamental concern of not wanting to confront the rising power in an outright manner. Unless China's actions have posed an immediate threat that leaves the states no choice but balancing, such a partially converged hedging process is likely to endure in the years to come.

The Favourable Partner: An Analysis of Lianhe Zaobao’s Representation of China in Southeast Asia

“…For example, Singapore has taken the view that the region being dominated by any single superpower is to be avoided and this has led to the policy of hedging being adopted both by the citystate but also by the region through ASEAN. Singapore has also, through ASEAN, been a crucial contributor to the direction regional co-operation has taken and how ASEAN engages with other states (see for example discussion of hedging and Singapore's role in Chung, 2004;Kuik, 2008;Kuik et al, 2012;Medeiros, 2005).…”

Analisis sekatan bilateral Amerika Syarikat terhadap Myanmar

“…Perspektif Realisme Neo-klasik menghujahkan bahawa skop dan matlamat dasar luar sesebuah negara adalah disebabkan oleh kuasa material relatifnya. Impak keupayaan kuasa dalam dasar luar adalah secara tidak langsung dan kompleks kerana terdapatnya tekanan sistemik yang perlu diterjemahkan menerusi unit-level perantara domestik seperti persepsi pembuat dasar dan struktur negara (Rose, 1998;Lobell et al, 2009;Kuik et al, 2012;Kuik, 2016;Abdul Muien, 2017). Bagi isu hubungan Amerika Syarikat dan Myanmar, daripada segi faktor sistemik kajian ini akan memfokuskan faktor pengukuhan hubungan China-Myanmar.…”