The Brazilian Bombshell? The Long-Term Impact of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic the South American Way

Guimbeau, Amanda; Menon, Nidhiya; Musacchio, Aldo

doi:10.2139/ssrn.3381800

Cited by 11 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 50 publications

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“…We might expect similar outcomes in the context of COVID-19 given that a large share of those dying have one or more co-morbidities, though the distinct age profile of 1918 pandemic deaths versus COVID-19 deaths may complicate these dynamics. Studying Brazil, Guimbeau et al (2020) likewise find rather larger reductions in sex ratios at birth following the 1918 influenza pandemic, consistent with the greater vulnerability of male fetuses to adverse in utero shocks-a phenomenon often seen in the literature on famines and environmental disasters. Such changes in the sex ratio, or in sex-specific survival, may well have had long-run implications for marriage and labor markets.…”

Section: Iiib Demographic Effectssupporting

confidence: 78%

“…These include substantial reductions in high school completion rates, wages, and socioeconomic status, alongside large increases in the probability of living in poverty, the receipt of welfare payments, the likelihood of incarceration, and-particularly among men-the probability of physical disability. That these adverse outcomes exist in spite of a pandemic-induced increase in miscarriages, stillbirths, and infant mortality rates (see, e.g., Guimbeau et al, 2020;Mamelund, 2004)-all culling forces which likely resulted in a pool of survivors if anything positively selected on health-is a testament to the catastrophic extent of pandemic scarring.…”

Section: Iiic Long-run Effectsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Disease, downturns, and wellbeing: Economic history and the long-run impacts of COVID-19

Arthi¹,

Parman²

2021

Explorations in Economic History

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How might COVID-19 affect human capital and wellbeing in the long run? The COVID-19 pandemic has already imposed a heavy human cost—taken together, this public health crisis and its attendant economic downturn appear poised to dwarf the scope, scale, and disruptiveness of most modern pandemics. What evidence we do have about other modern pandemics is largely limited to short-run impacts. Consequently, recent experience can do little to help us anticipate and respond to COVID-19’s potential long-run impact on individuals over decades and even generations. History, however, offers a solution. Historical crises offer closer analogues to COVID-19 in each of its key dimensions—as a global pandemic, as a global recession—and offer the runway necessary to study the life-course and intergenerational outcomes. In this paper, we review the evidence on the long-run effects on health, labor, and human capital of both historical pandemics (with a focus on the 1918 Influenza Pandemic) and historical recessions (with a focus on the Great Depression). We conclude by discussing how past crises can inform our approach to COVID-19—helping tell us what to look for, what to prepare for, and what data we ought to collect now.

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Section: Iiib Demographic Effectssupporting

confidence: 78%

Section: Iiic Long-run Effectsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Disease, downturns, and wellbeing: Economic history and the long-run impacts of COVID-19

Arthi¹,

Parman²

2021

Explorations in Economic History

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“…Much research has been conducted into its consequences for the health of survivors, even when experienced in‐utero (Almond, 2006; Bengtsson & Helgertz, 2015; Myrskylä, Mehta, & Chang, 2013). Fewer studies exist on the way in which experiencing the Spanish Flu‐shaped individual behavior and human societies at large (Almond, 2006; Bengtsson & Helgertz, 2015; Carillo & Jappelli, 2020; Cohn, 2018; Galletta & Giommoni, 2020; Guimbeau, Menon, & Musacchio, 2019; Karlsson, Nilsson, & Pichler, 2014; Lin & Liu, 2014). Yet a growing literature argues that the second‐worst pandemic in human history, the Black Death, had long‐term economic, social and cultural consequences, shaping behavior well into the 20th century (Alfani, 2020; Alfani & Murphy, 2017; Jedwab, Johnson, & Koyama, 2016; Richardson & McBride, 2009; Voitgländer & Voth, 2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It is also worth mentioning that an estimation of the Spanish flu mortality is also available for Brazil from a specific administrative source and it has been employed in Guimbeau et al. (2019), but such estimation cannot be used in our study since it regards only a specific region within the country (i.e., the state of São Paulo), thus not comparable with those at the country level provided in Johnson and Mueller (2002).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Epidemics and trust: The case of the Spanish Flu

et al. 2021

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Recent studies argue that major crises can have long‐lasting effects on individual behavior. While most studies focused on natural disasters, we explore the consequences of the global pandemic caused by a lethal influenza virus in 1918–19: the so‐called “Spanish Flu.” This was by far the worst pandemic of modern history, causing up to 100 million deaths worldwide. Using information about attitudes of respondents to the General Social Survey, we find evidence that experiencing the pandemic likely had permanent consequences in terms of individuals' social trust. Our findings suggest that lower social trust was passed on to the descendants of the survivors of the Spanish Flu who migrated to the United States. As trust is a crucial factor for long‐term economic development, our research offers a new angle from which to assess current health threats.

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“…As identified from the key considerations ( Table 3 ), 88.9% (281/316) of the participants stated that long-term objectives should be considered. As pandemics can have long term impacts [ 28 , 29 ], the framework should focus on both short-term (as adopted in the current National eHealth Strategy) and long-term objectives. In addition, it is necessary to consider and review the current health care system.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Applying eHealth for Pandemic Management in Saudi Arabia in the Context of COVID-19: Survey Study and Framework Proposal

Alsharif

2020

JMIR Med Inform

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Background The increased frequency of epidemics such as Middle East respiratory syndrome, severe acute respiratory syndrome, Ebola virus, and Zika virus has created stress on health care management and operations as well as on relevant stakeholders. In addition, the recent COVID-19 outbreak has been creating challenges for various countries and their respective health care organizations in managing and controlling the pandemic. One of the most important observations during the recent outbreak is the lack of effective eHealth frameworks for managing and controlling pandemics. Objective The aims of this study are to review the current National eHealth Strategy of Saudi Arabia and to propose an integrated eHealth framework that can be effective for managing health care operations and services during pandemics. Methods A questionnaire-based survey was administered to 316 health care professionals to review the current national eHealth framework of Saudi Arabia and identify the objectives, factors, and components that are key for managing and controlling pandemics. Purposive sampling was used to collect responses from diverse experts, including physicians, technical experts, nurses, administrative experts, and pharmacists. The survey was administered at five hospitals in Saudi Arabia by forwarding the survey link using a web-based portal. A sample population of 350 was achieved, which was filtered to exclude incomplete and ineligible samples, giving a sample of 316 participants. Results Of the 316 participants, 187 (59.2%) found the current eHealth framework to be ineffective, and more than 50% of the total participants stated that the framework lacked some essential components and objectives. Additional components and objectives focusing on using eHealth for managing information, creating awareness, increasing accessibility and reachability, promoting self-management and self-collaboration, promoting electronic services, and extensive stakeholder engagement were considered to be the most important factors by more than 80% of the total participants. Conclusions Managing pandemics requires an effective and efficient eHealth framework that can be used to manage various health care services by integrating different eHealth components and collaborating with all stakeholders.

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The Brazilian Bombshell? The Long-Term Impact of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic the South American Way

Cited by 11 publications

References 50 publications

Disease, downturns, and wellbeing: Economic history and the long-run impacts of COVID-19

Disease, downturns, and wellbeing: Economic history and the long-run impacts of COVID-19

Epidemics and trust: The case of the Spanish Flu

Applying eHealth for Pandemic Management in Saudi Arabia in the Context of COVID-19: Survey Study and Framework Proposal

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