The belief system and national images: a case study

Holsti, Ole R.

doi:10.1177/002200276200600306

Cited by 238 publications

(77 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…"national role conceptions", also der Vorstellung, wie der eigene Staat und ihm gegenüberste-hende Staaten verfasst sind, geprägt. Diese Denkmuster wirken wie ein Prisma, dass die eintreffende Information filtert und ihr eine gewisse Bedeutung zuschreibt (Holsti, 1962(Holsti, , 1970a(Holsti, , 1976Holsti und Rosenau, 1979 Alexander L. George gilt als Pionier auf dem Gebiet der Außenpolitik-analyse und als Brückenbauer zwischen den Disziplinen der Psychologie und der außenpolitischen Entscheidungsfindung (Stein, 1994). Auch wenn George zwar nicht den Begriff der operational codes als solchen erfunden hat, so hat er ihn doch geprägt und um diese Bezeichnung ein theoretisches Rahmenwerk aufgebaut, das als Grundlage für eine der erfolgversprechendsten Forschungstraditionen in der Außenpolitikanalyse gesehen werden kann.…”

Section: Vergleicht Dieunclassified

Der Irakkrieg 2003

Eder¹

2015

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Section: Vergleicht Dieunclassified

Der Irakkrieg 2003

Eder¹

2015

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“…Lord et al, 1979) and that disconfirming evidence is typically undervalued relative to confirming evidence (Snyder & Cantor, 1979;Wason, 1966). Research also suggests that positive behavior which violates prior expectations or comes from a disliked source tends to be explained as a result of situational demands, whereas positive behavior that confirms prior expectations or comes from a liked source is more often explained in terms of character (Holsti, 1969;Kulik, 1983;Regan et al, 1974). As a consequence, cooperative gestures made by an adversary seldom lead to large changes in how that adversary is perceived.…”

Section: Factors That Sustain Misperceptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Nuclear Arms Race: Prisoner's Dilemma or Perceptual Dilemma?

Plous

1993

Journal of Peace Research

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Traditionally, the most common game-theoretic model of the Soviet-US nuclear arms race has been an iterated Prisoner's Dilemma. According to such a model, on any given trial both superpowers are better off arming regardless of what the other side chooses, but if both sides arm the outcome is less desirable than had both sides reduced their supply of weapons. Although Soviet and US preferences resembled a Prisoner's Dilemma throughout much of the Cold War, recent evidence suggests that the arms race is now more accurately modeled by a 'Perceptual Dilemma'. In a Perceptual Dilemma, both sides: (1) prefer mutual arms reductions to all other outcomes; (2) want above all to avoid disarming while the other side arms; and (3) perceive the other side as preferring unilateral armament to all other outcomes. This article presents empirical evidence that the nuclear arms race is more appropriately modeled by a Perceptual Dilemma than by a Prisoner's Dilemma, including new survey data in which members of the Australian Parliament and the Israeli Knesset were asked to estimate the preferences of Soviet and US leaders. The paper concludes by reviewing several factors which sustain misperception and by suggesting that a Perceptual Dilemma can be solved with a clear, time-limited series of disarmament initiatives.A great deal in the development of relations between the USSR and the US depends on how each of the sides perceives the world.Mikhail Gorbachev, 22 November 1985

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“…(Simon 1955: 99-118). Until the 1990s, the field in which the most attention has been focused on cognitive processes has not been public administration studies (March and Simon 1958) but foreign policy decision-making (Holsti 1962: 244-252, Snyder et al 1962, Rosati 1995, Sylvan and Strathman 2006.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Uses of Cognition in Policy Analysis: A First Appraisal

Gouin¹,

Harguindéguy

2012

jpag

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Cognitive approaches have become very fashionable in the field of policy analysis. Nevertheless, despite a common label, cognitive policy analyses vary greatly from one author to the next. So, are policy analysts talking about the same thing? Drawing on the dichotomy established by Sperber between soft cognition and hard cognition, we guess that not all authors seek to transfer theoretical assumptions from one scientific discipline to another. In order to demonstrate this hypothesis, we propose to round out these formal categories with additional sub-divisions based on the degree of conceptual transfer from cognitive science to policy analysis.

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The belief system and national images: a case study

Cited by 238 publications

References 8 publications

Der Irakkrieg 2003

Der Irakkrieg 2003

The Nuclear Arms Race: Prisoner's Dilemma or Perceptual Dilemma?

The Uses of Cognition in Policy Analysis: A First Appraisal

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