The avoidable disease burden associated with overweight and obesity in Kenya: A modelling study

Wanjau, Mary Njeri; Aminde, Léopold Ndemnge; Veerman, J. Lennert

doi:10.1016/j.eclinm.2022.101522

Cited by 10 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 47 publications

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“…These reductions in general obesity indicators (BMI and BFP) and abdominal obesity indicators (WC and WHR) can decrease the risk of cardiovascular diseases (31) and chronic diseases (32). Many studies indicated that the burden of chronic diseases is mainly contributed by overweight and obesity (32)(33)(34)(35)(36)(37). Even a slight reduction in populationaveraged BMI can significantly decrease the chronic disease burden (32).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The most effective exercise to prevent obesity: A longitudinal study of 33,731 Taiwan biobank participants

Lin

2022

Front. Nutr.

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Regular physical exercise is recommended to reduce the risk of obesity. However, it remains unclear which activities are more effective in preventing obesity. In this study, five obesity indices and lifestyle factors of 33,731 Taiwan Biobank adults were measured/collected twice with a mean time interval of 4.06 years. A linear mixed effects model was fitted to assess the associations of exercises with obesity indices, in which a random intercept term was used to account for individual differences. The five obesity indices included body mass index (BMI), body fat percentage (BFP), waist circumference (WC), hip circumference (HC), and waist-hip ratio (WHR). Among 23 exercises, jogging and yoga were consistently the most effective choices across all five obesity indices. One more weekly hour to jog was associated with a 0.093 kg/m2 decrease in BMI (p = 4.2E-20), a 0.297% decrease in BFP (p = 3.8E-36), a 0.398 cm decrease in WC (p = 1.6E-21), and a 2.9E-3 decrease in WHR (p = 1.3E-17). One more weekly hour to perform yoga was associated with a 0.225 cm decrease in HC (p = 6.4E-14). Jogging is an exercise for the entire body. Arms swing, waist turn, legs and feet run, and shoulders and abdomen are also involved in this act. By contrast, many yoga poses use muscles around the hips and pelvis, and therefore yoga is the most effective exercise to reduce HC.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The most effective exercise to prevent obesity: A longitudinal study of 33,731 Taiwan biobank participants

Lin

2022

Front. Nutr.

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“…We modelled the 2019 population from age zero years to avoid the missing cohort effect, meaning that we capture the impact of the interventions on the younger age groups once they are 20 years and more into the future. Details of the Kenya Obesity Model are published in our previous works [ 11 , 67 ]. The pMSLT model has been used in previous evaluation studies to estimate health and economic impacts and cost effectiveness of various obesity-related preventive strategies [ 20 , 59 , 77 , 78 ].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The PIF is a measure of effect that calculates the proportional change in average disease incidence (or prevalence or mortality) after a change in the exposure of a related risk factor [ 79 ]. The distribution shift method assumes a continuous risk-factor (BMI) distribution (modelled as lognormally distributed [ 11 ]) with continuous relative risks (RRs) from GBD 2019 [ 80 ] modelled as normally distributed [ 81 ]. The RR estimates (mean, lower and upper levels) by age and sex are the relative risk of morbidity (incidence in our model) from a high-BMI-related disease, per 5 BMI-unit (5 kg/m 2 ) increase.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The changes in incidence of the disease subsequently lead to changes in morbidity and mortality rates. Changes in disease-related quality of life at every age were calculated using disease-specific disability weights [ 2 , 11 , 82 ]. The new disease specific mortality and morbidity rates and changes in costs from the disease sections are fed into a life table to calculate the number of HALYs and total cost savings.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…If the current trends continue unabated, it will lead to increased rise in the NCD burden putting further strain on the health system. In our recent study, we found that over the lifetime of the 2019 Kenyan population, high BMI could cause losses of approximately 83.5 million health-adjusted life years (HALYs) (~ 1.7 HALYs per person) and decrease health-adjusted life expectancy by 2.3 years for females and 1.0 years for males [ 11 ]. The magnitude of the avoidable high BMI-related disease burden underscores the need to prioritise the control and prevention of overweight and obesity.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The health and economic impact and cost effectiveness of interventions for the prevention and control of overweight and obesity in Kenya: a stakeholder engaged modelling study

Wanjau,

Kivuti-Bitok,

Aminde

et al. 2023

Cost Eff Resour Alloc

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Background The global increase in mean body mass index has resulted in a substantial increase of non-communicable diseases (NCDs), including in many low- and middle-income countries such as Kenya. This paper assesses four interventions for the prevention and control of overweight and obesity in Kenya to determine their potential health and economic impact and cost effectiveness. Methods We reviewed the literature to identify evidence of effect, determine the intervention costs, disease costs and total healthcare costs. We used a proportional multistate life table model to quantify the potential impacts on health conditions and healthcare costs, modelling the 2019 Kenya population over their remaining lifetime. Considering a health system perspective, two interventions were assessed for cost-effectiveness. In addition, we used the Human Capital Approach to estimate productivity gains. Results Over the lifetime of the 2019 population, impacts were estimated at 203,266 health-adjusted life years (HALYs) (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 163,752 − 249,621) for a 20% tax on sugar-sweetened beverages, 151,718 HALYs (95% UI 55,257 − 250,412) for mandatory kilojoule menu labelling, 3.7 million HALYs (95% UI 2,661,365–4,789,915) for a change in consumption levels related to supermarket food purchase patterns and 13.1 million HALYs (95% UI 11,404,317 − 15,152,341) for a change in national consumption back to the 1975 average levels of energy intake. This translates to 4, 3, 73 and 261 HALYs per 1,000 persons. Lifetime healthcare cost savings were approximately United States Dollar (USD) 0.14 billion (USD 3 per capita), USD 0.08 billion (USD 2 per capita), USD 1.9 billion (USD 38 per capita) and USD 6.2 billion (USD 124 per capita), respectively. Lifetime productivity gains were approximately USD 1.8 billion, USD 1.2 billion, USD 28 billion and USD 92 billion. Both the 20% tax on sugar sweetened beverages and the mandatory kilojoule menu labelling were assessed for cost effectiveness and found dominant (health promoting and cost-saving). Conclusion All interventions evaluated yielded substantive health gains and economic benefits and should be considered for implementation in Kenya.

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Health gains from achieving optimal body mass index in Australia: a simulation study

Bohora,

Mishra,

Wilson

et al. 2024

The Lancet Regional Health - Western Pacific

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The avoidable disease burden associated with overweight and obesity in Kenya: A modelling study

Cited by 10 publications

References 47 publications

The most effective exercise to prevent obesity: A longitudinal study of 33,731 Taiwan biobank participants

The most effective exercise to prevent obesity: A longitudinal study of 33,731 Taiwan biobank participants

The health and economic impact and cost effectiveness of interventions for the prevention and control of overweight and obesity in Kenya: a stakeholder engaged modelling study

Health gains from achieving optimal body mass index in Australia: a simulation study

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