The Association of Weather Variability and Under Five Malaria Mortality in KEMRI/CDC HDSS in Western Kenya 2003 to 2008: A Time Series Analysis

Sewe, Maquins; Rocklöv, Joacim; Williamson, John; Hamel, Mary J.; Nyaguara, Amek; Odhiambo, Frank; Laserson, Kayla F.

doi:10.3390/ijerph120201983

Cited by 26 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 33 publications

(29 reference statements)

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“…Similar results were also found in Mozambique [4] and South Africa [18]. Increased precipitation can provide more breeding sites for mosquitoes, however excess rain can also destroy breeding sites [26]. …”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 76%

Malaria mortality characterization and the relationship between malaria mortality and climate in Chimoio, Mozambique

Ferrão

Mendes

Paìnho

et al. 2017

Malar J

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BackgroundThe United Nation’s sustainable development goal for 2030 is to eradicate the global malaria epidemic, primarily as the disease continues to be one of the major concerns for public health in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2015, the region accounted for 90% of malaria deaths. Mozambique recorded a malaria mortality rate of 42.75 (per 100,000). In Chimoio, Mozambique’s fifth largest city, malaria is the fourth leading cause of death (9.4%). Few data on malaria mortality exists in Mozambique, particularly in relation to Chimoio. The objective of this study was to characterize malaria mortality trends and its spatial distribution in Chimoio.MethodsMalaria mortality data and climate data were extracted from the Chimoio Civil Registration records, and the Regional Weather station, from 2010 to 2014. The malaria crude mortality rate was calculated. ANOVA, Tukey’s, Chi square, and time series were carried out and an intervention analysis ARIMA model developed.ResultsA total of 944 malaria death cases were registered in Chimoio, 729 of these among Chimoio residents (77%). The average malaria mortality by gender was 44.9% for females and 55.1% for males. The age of death varied from 0 to 96 years, with an average age of 25.9 (SE = 0.79) years old. January presented the highest average of malaria deaths, and urban areas presented a lower crude malaria mortality rate. Rural neighbourhoods with good accessibility present the highest malaria crude mortality rate, over 85 per 100,000. Seasonal ARMA (2,0)(1,0)12 fitted the data although it was not able to capture malaria mortality peaks occurring during malaria outbreaks. Intervention effect properly fit the mortality peaks and reduced ARMA’s root mean square error by almost 25%.ConclusionMalaria mortality is increasing in Chimoio; children between 1 and 4 years old represent 13% of Chimoio population, but account for 25% of malaria mortality. Malaria mortality shows seasonal and spatial characteristics. More studies should be carried out for malaria eradication in the municipality.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12936-017-1866-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 76%

Malaria mortality characterization and the relationship between malaria mortality and climate in Chimoio, Mozambique

Ferrão

Mendes

Paìnho

et al. 2017

Malar J

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“…Weekly malaria deaths were assumed to follow a quasi-Poisson process allowing for over-dispersion. In each model, a natural cubic spline function of time trend allowing one degree of freedom per year of data was included to capture long-term time trends of malaria mortality based on previous estimation[ 11 ]. The model equations used for estimating the effect of each environmental variable on malaria mortality were: …”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Rainfall results in pools of water, which provide suitable breeding sites for vectors while temperature determines development of the anopheles mosquitoes, adult mosquito biting and mortality rates [ 9 , 10 ]. In a previous analysis [ 11 ], lagged values of weekly mean temperature and total rainfall up to 16 weeks were assessed for their association with malaria mortality among children in KEMRI/CDC HDSS area. Rainfall and temperature data were obtained from Kisumu airport weather station which is approximately 60 km from the study area.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Remotely Sensed Environmental Conditions and Malaria Mortality in Three Malaria Endemic Regions in Western Kenya

2016

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BackgroundMalaria is an important cause of morbidity and mortality in malaria endemic countries. The malaria mosquito vectors depend on environmental conditions, such as temperature and rainfall, for reproduction and survival. To investigate the potential for weather driven early warning systems to prevent disease occurrence, the disease relationship to weather conditions need to be carefully investigated. Where meteorological observations are scarce, satellite derived products provide new opportunities to study the disease patterns depending on remotely sensed variables. In this study, we explored the lagged association of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NVDI), day Land Surface Temperature (LST) and precipitation on malaria mortality in three areas in Western Kenya.Methodology and FindingsThe lagged effect of each environmental variable on weekly malaria mortality was modeled using a Distributed Lag Non Linear Modeling approach. For each variable we constructed a natural spline basis with 3 degrees of freedom for both the lag dimension and the variable. Lag periods up to 12 weeks were considered. The effect of day LST varied between the areas with longer lags. In all the three areas, malaria mortality was associated with precipitation. The risk increased with increasing weekly total precipitation above 20 mm and peaking at 80 mm. The NDVI threshold for increased mortality risk was between 0.3 and 0.4 at shorter lags.ConclusionThis study identified lag patterns and association of remote- sensing environmental factors and malaria mortality in three malaria endemic regions in Western Kenya. Our results show that rainfall has the most consistent predictive pattern to malaria transmission in the endemic study area. Results highlight a potential for development of locally based early warning forecasts that could potentially reduce the disease burden by enabling timely control actions.

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“…Anopheles mosquitoes including A. gambiae found in Sub-Saharan Africa are the most efficient and predominant vectors, responsible for about 90% of malaria-related deaths [2]. Malaria continues to be a major global public health problem with about half of the global population (3.2 billion people) at risk in more than 106 endemic countries [3].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cytochrome P450s in Anopheles gambiae (Diptera: Culicidae) and Insecticide Resistance in Africa: A Mini Review

Mohammed¹,

Mailafia²,

Malang³

et al. 2017

Entomol Ornithol Herpetol

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Cytochrome P450s are known to be critical for the detoxification and/or activation of xenobiotics such as insecticides in all living organisms including Anopheles gambiae. Many studies have demonstrated the role of P450s in insecticide resistance in A. gambiae. However, little is known about the impact of distribution in the African subcontinent. In this paper therefore, we analyse the P450 clans, the CYP6 family, localisation and function of A. gambiae CYPs, their insecticide substrates, regional distribution in the African continent and their role in insecticide resistance. This investigation from published data revealed that in the Central region; CYP6Z3, CYP6Z1, CYP12F2, CYP6P4, CYP6GA1, CYP6Z3 (Yaoundé, Cameroun) have bendiocarb, DDT and pyrethroids as substrates; in the Eastern region: CYP314A1 and CYP12F1 (Tanzania and Zanzibar) have DDT as a substrate, CYP32A3, CYP6Z1 and CYP6Z2 (Western Kenya) have DDT, carbaryl and permethrin; whilst in the Western region: CYP6AG1, CYP6Z2, CYP6Z3, CY6P3, CYP6P4, CYP6M2 (Ghana), CYP6M2, CYP6P3 (Benin), CYP325A3, CYP6P3 and CYP6M2 (Nigeria) all have DDT, carbaryl, permethrin, trans-and cis-permethrin, deltamethrin, bendiocarb as substrates. Additionally, CYP6M2, CYP6P3, CYP6Z3 (Côte d'Ivoire), CYP6P3, CYP6Z2 and CYP9J5 (Burkina Faso) have bendiocarb, DDT plus pyrethroids and only pyrethroids as substrates respectively. Interestingly, CYP6P3 is observed to metabolize all the available insecticides (DDT, pyrethroid, trans-and cis-permethrin, deltamethrin and bendiocarb), indicating possible insecticide cross resistance across all the three regions of Africa. A more detailed understanding of the substrate specificities of various P450s and the geographical distribution of insecticide resistance in Africa is quintessential for an effective resistance management.

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The Association of Weather Variability and Under Five Malaria Mortality in KEMRI/CDC HDSS in Western Kenya 2003 to 2008: A Time Series Analysis

Cited by 26 publications

References 33 publications

Malaria mortality characterization and the relationship between malaria mortality and climate in Chimoio, Mozambique

Malaria mortality characterization and the relationship between malaria mortality and climate in Chimoio, Mozambique

Remotely Sensed Environmental Conditions and Malaria Mortality in Three Malaria Endemic Regions in Western Kenya

Cytochrome P450s in Anopheles gambiae (Diptera: Culicidae) and Insecticide Resistance in Africa: A Mini Review

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