The KEMRI/Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) is located in Rarieda, Siaya and Gem Districts (Siaya County), lying northeast of Lake Victoria in Nyanza Province, western Kenya. The KEMRI/CDC HDSS, with approximately 220 000 inhabitants, has been the foundation for a variety of studies, including evaluations of insecticide-treated bed nets, burden of diarrhoeal disease and tuberculosis, malaria parasitaemia and anaemia, treatment strategies and immunological correlates of malaria infection, and numerous HIV, tuberculosis, malaria and diarrhoeal disease treatment and vaccine efficacy and effectiveness trials for more than a decade. Current studies include operations research to measure the uptake and effectiveness of the programmatic implementation of integrated malaria control strategies, HIV services, newly introduced vaccines and clinical trials. The HDSS provides general demographic and health information (such as population age structure and density, fertility rates, birth and death rates, in- and out-migrations, patterns of health care access and utilization and the local economics of health care) as well as disease- or intervention-specific information. The HDSS also collects verbal autopsy information on all deaths. Studies take advantage of the sampling frame inherent in the HDSS, whether at individual, household/compound or neighbourhood level.
We report and explore changes in child mortality in a rural area of Kenya during 2003–2009, when major public health interventions were scaled-up. Mortality ratios and rates were calculated by using the Kenya Medical Research Institute/Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Demographic Surveillance System. Inpatient and outpatient morbidity and mortality, and verbal autopsy data were analyzed. Mortality ratios for children less than five years of age decreased from 241 to 137 deaths/1,000 live-births in 2003 and 2007 respectively. In 2008, they increased to 212 deaths/1,000 live-births. Mortality remained elevated during the first 8 months of 2009 compared with 2006 and 2007. Malaria and/or anemia accounted for the greatest increases in child mortality. Stock-outs of essential antimalarial drugs during a time of increased malaria transmission and disruption of services during civil unrest may have contributed to increased mortality in 2008–2009. To maintain gains in child survival, implementation of good policies and effective interventions must be complemented by reliable supply and access to clinical services and essential drugs.
Summary The Network for Analysing Longitudinal Population-based HIV/AIDS data on Africa (ALPHA Network, http://alpha.lshtm.ac.uk/) brings together ten population-based HIV surveillance sites in eastern and southern Africa, and is coordinated by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM). It was established in 2005 and aims to (i) broaden the evidence base on HIV epidemiology for informing policy, (ii) strengthen the analytical capacity for HIV research, and (iii) foster collaboration between network members. All study sites, some starting in the late 1980s and early 1990s, conduct demographic surveillance in populations that range from approximately 20 to 220 thousand individuals. In addition, they conduct population-based surveys with HIV testing, and verbal autopsy interviews with relatives of deceased residents. ALPHA Network datasets have been used for studying HIV incidence, sexual behaviour and the effects of HIV on mortality, fertility, and household composition. One of the network's substantive focus areas is the monitoring of AIDS mortality and HIV services coverage in the era of antiretroviral therapy. Service use data are retrospectively recorded in interviews and supplemented by information from record linkage with medical facilities in the surveillance areas. Data access is at the discretion of each of the participating sites, but can be coordinated by the network.
BackgroundDengue outbreaks are increasing in frequency over space and time, affecting people’s health and burdening resource-constrained health systems. The ability to detect early emerging outbreaks is key to mounting an effective response. The early warning and response system (EWARS) is a toolkit that provides countries with early-warning systems for efficient and cost-effective local responses. EWARS uses outbreak and alarm indicators to derive prediction models that can be used prospectively to predict a forthcoming dengue outbreak at district level.MethodsWe report on the development of the EWARS tool, based on users’ recommendations into a convenient, user-friendly and reliable software aided by a user’s workbook and its field testing in 30 health districts in Brazil, Malaysia and Mexico.Findings34 Health officers from the 30 study districts who had used the original EWARS for 7 to 10 months responded to a questionnaire with mainly open-ended questions. Qualitative content analysis showed that participants were generally satisfied with the tool but preferred open-access vs. commercial software. EWARS users also stated that the geographical unit should be the district, while access to meteorological information should be improved. These recommendations were incorporated into the second-generation EWARS-R, using the free R software, combined with recent surveillance data and resulted in higher sensitivities and positive predictive values of alarm signals compared to the first-generation EWARS. Currently the use of satellite data for meteorological information is being tested and a dashboard is being developed to increase user-friendliness of the tool. The inclusion of other Aedes borne viral diseases is under discussion.ConclusionEWARS is a pragmatic and useful tool for detecting imminent dengue outbreaks to trigger early response activities.
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