The Association of Respiratory Viruses, Temperature, and Other Climatic Parameters with the Incidence of Invasive Pneumococcal Disease in Sydney, Australia

Watson, Michael; Gilmour, Robin; Menzies, Robert; Ferson, Mark J; McIntyre, Peter

doi:10.1086/498897

Cited by 72 publications

(84 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…Increased relative humidity was associated with increased IPD incidence in New Zealand, but not in Australia 12, 13 . Low sunlight and temperature are consistently associated with high pneumonia incidence in time series studies in temperate settings, where annual peaks of lower respiratory infections occur during the short days of winter 10,[12][13][14][15][16] . The association between temperature and respiratory infections in children is inconsistent in time series studies from tropical settings, suggesting temperature is unlikely to be an important driver of pneumonia incidence in the tropics [6][7][8][9][10][11] .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 85%

“…Rainfall is not convincingly associated with pneumonia incidence in time series studies from temperate settings 10,12,13 . Relative humidity is not consistently associated with RSV incidence in temperate settings, however dew point temperature is more consistently (negatively) associated 10 .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 95%

“…Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infections were positively correlated with the number of rainy days and relative humidity in Indonesia and Malaysia, positively correlated with relative humidity and dew point in Mexico, and positively correlated with relative humidity in Hong Kong, although in Singapore a negative correlation with relative humidity was found [6][7][8][9][10][11] . In temperate settings where pneumonia peaks in winter, time series analyses have consistently found peaks of RSV and invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) to be inversely correlated with temperature and daylight hours 10,[12][13][14][15][16] . Although daylight hours vary less in tropical latitudes, sunshine hours can vary seasonally according to cloud cover (and hence are generally lowest in the rainy season).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Sunshine, rainfall, humidity and child pneumonia in the tropics: time-series analyses

et al. 2012

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3 SummaryFew studies have formally examined the relationship between meteorological factors and the incidence of child pneumonia in the tropics, despite the fact that most child pneumonia deaths occur here. We examined the association between four meteorological exposures (rainy days, sunshine, relative humidity and temperature) and the incidence of clinical pneumonia in young children in the Philippines using three time series methods: correlation of seasonal patterns, distributed lag regression, and case-crossover. Lack of sunshine was most strongly associated with pneumonia in both lagged regression (RR for a 1 hour increase in sunshine per day was 0.67 (95%CI 0.51 to 0.87)) and case-crossover analysis (OR for a 1 hour increase in mean daily sunshine 8 to 14 days earlier was 0.95 (95%CI 0.91 to 1.00)). This association is well known in temperate settings but has not been noted previously in the tropics. Further research to assess causality is needed.4

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 85%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 95%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Sunshine, rainfall, humidity and child pneumonia in the tropics: time-series analyses

et al. 2012

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“…RSV and IPD are associated in infants/children,5, 17, 26, 29, 30 and influenza and IPD in the elderly 26, 28, 30. The strongest associations between respiratory viruses and pneumococcal disease occur among the older age groups 18, 20, 22, 26.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The strength of the interaction between influenza or influenza‐like illness (ILI) and IPD at population level, however, varies across studies from non‐existent to significant 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27. Studies looking at specific respiratory viruses also showed inconsistent results 5, 28, 29, 30. In addition, most studies did not control for seasonality of the pathogens or used a sine/cosine function to adjust for it 27.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Temporal cross‐correlation between influenza‐like illnesses and invasive pneumococcal disease in The Netherlands

Hendriks

Boshuizen

Dekkers

et al. 2017

Influenza Resp Viruses

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BackgroundWhile the burden of community‐acquired pneumonia and invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) is still considerable, there is little insight in the factors contributing to disease. Previous research on the lagged relationship between respiratory viruses and pneumococcal disease incidence is inconclusive, and studies correcting for temporal autocorrelation are lacking.ObjectivesTo investigate the temporal relation between influenza‐like illnesses (ILI) and IPD, correcting for temporal autocorrelation.MethodsWeekly counts of ILI were obtained from the Sentinel Practices of NIVEL Primary Care Database. IPD data were collected from the Dutch laboratory‐based surveillance system for bacterial meningitis from 2004 to 2014. We analysed the correlation between time series, pre‐whitening the dependent time series with the best‐fit seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model to the independent time series. We performed cross‐correlations between ILI and IPD incidences, and the (pre‐whitened) residuals, in the overall population and in the elderly.ResultsWe found significant cross‐correlations between ILI and IPD incidences peaking at lags ‐3 overall and at 1 week in the 65+ population. However, after pre‐whitening, no cross‐correlations were apparent in either population group.ConclusionOur study suggests that ILI occurrence does not seem to be the major driver of IPD incidence in The Netherlands.

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Association of Influenza Activity and Environmental Conditions With the Risk of Invasive Pneumococcal Disease

et al. 2020

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Key Points Question What is the association of influenza activity and environmental conditions with invasive pneumococcal disease risk in temperate countries, and are these associations generalizable? Findings In this case-crossover study of 19 566 patients from Australia, Canada, and the United States, influenza activity was associated with a short-term increase in risk of invasive pneumococcal disease, while absolute humidity was associated with a short-term decrease in invasive pneumococcal disease risk. These results were generalizable across the 3 temperate countries. Meaning This study’s finding that influenza was associated with increased risk of invasive pneumococcal disease has important implications for disease control policy and practice.

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The Association of Respiratory Viruses, Temperature, and Other Climatic Parameters with the Incidence of Invasive Pneumococcal Disease in Sydney, Australia

Abstract: This study suggests that RSV infection and influenza contribute to IPD incidence peaks differently for children than for adults. Data from other geographic areas and more rigorous study designs are required to confirm these findings.

Cited by 72 publications

References 20 publications

Sunshine, rainfall, humidity and child pneumonia in the tropics: time-series analyses

Sunshine, rainfall, humidity and child pneumonia in the tropics: time-series analyses

Temporal cross‐correlation between influenza‐like illnesses and invasive pneumococcal disease in The Netherlands

Association of Influenza Activity and Environmental Conditions With the Risk of Invasive Pneumococcal Disease

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