The Arctic Ocean in CMIP6 Models: Biases and Projected Changes in Temperature and Salinity

Khosravi, Narges; Wang, Qiang; Koldunov, Nikolay; Hinrichs, Claudia; Semmler, Tido; Danilov, Sergey; Jung, Thomas

doi:10.1029/2021ef002282

Cited by 31 publications

(37 citation statements)

References 64 publications

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“…Despite a reasonable model performance, model biases relative to observations do exist in the simulation employed in this paper. Model biases in Arctic Ocean simulations in state-of-the-art models (e.g., Jahn et al, 2012;Aksenov et al, 2016;Ilicak et al, 2016;Wang et al, 2016;Khosravi et al, 2022) suggest a need for concerted efforts in future development of numerical models, which are important tools for understanding and predicting the ocean and climate.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Synthesis of the Upper Arctic Ocean Circulation During 2000–2019: Understanding the Roles of Wind Forcing and Sea Ice Decline

Wang

Danilov

2022

Front. Mar. Sci.

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Major changes have occurred in the Arctic Ocean during 2000–2019, including the unprecedented spin-up of the Beaufort Gyre and the emergence of Arctic Atlantification in the eastern Eurasian Basin. We explored the main drivers for these changes by synthesizing numerical simulations and observations in this paper. The Arctic atmospheric circulation was unusual in some years in this period, with strongly negative wind curl over the Canada Basin. However, the wind-driven spin-up of the Beaufort Gyre would have been much weaker had it not been for Arctic sea ice decline. The sea ice decline not only fed the ocean with meltwater, but also made other freshwater components more available to the Beaufort Gyre through mediating the ocean surface stress. This dynamical effect of shifting surface freshwater from the Eurasian Basin towards the Amerasian Basin also resulted in the Arctic Atlantification in the eastern Eurasian Basin, which is characterized by halocline salinification and the uplift of the boundary between the halocline and the Atlantic Water layer. Contemporarily, the sea ice decline caused a strong warming trend in the Atlantic Water layer. The Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis of Arctic annual sea surface height for this period reveals that the first two modes of the upper ocean circulation have active centers associated with the Arctic Oscillation and Beaufort High variability, respectively. In the presence of sea ice decline the first two EOFs can better distinguish the ocean variability driven by the two atmospheric circulation modes. Therefore, the major changes in the Arctic Ocean in the past two decades are indicators of climate change as is the sea ice retreat. Our synthesis could help assess how the Arctic Ocean might change in future warming climate.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Synthesis of the Upper Arctic Ocean Circulation During 2000–2019: Understanding the Roles of Wind Forcing and Sea Ice Decline

Wang

Danilov

2022

Front. Mar. Sci.

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“…Here, we offer some systematic insights that can help in building a comprehensive picture for the entire Barents Sea shelf and foster further investigations to interrogate other biogeochemical drivers. Our study can help to develop an informed Pan-Arctic picture of processes governing pH and Ω, as well as carbonate burial and feedbacks to bottom waters for the near future (e.g., end of century), which would complement currently available pelagic assessments (Bindoff et al, 2019;Khosravi et al, 2022;Luo et al, 2016;Meredith et al, 2019;Terhaar et al, 2019;.…”

Section: Implications For a Changing Arctic Oceanmentioning

confidence: 84%

“…Mechanistically understanding how these processes will critically tip the delicate balance of pH and carbonate dynamics in Arctic Ocean sediments is crucial. The Arctic Ocean is rapidly changing and will continue to do so (Huntington et al., 2022; Khosravi et al., 2022; März et al., 2022; Thomas et al., 2022; Tuerena et al., 2022). Here, we offer some systematic insights that can help in building a comprehensive picture for the entire Barents Sea shelf and foster further investigations to interrogate other biogeochemical drivers.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Benthic Organic Matter Transformation Drives pH and Carbonate Chemistry in Arctic Marine Sediments

Freitas

Arndt

Hendry

et al. 2022

Global Biogeochemical Cycles

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The Arctic Ocean, and in particular its seasonally ice-free areas, is highly vulnerable to ocean acidification (OA) due to its large carbon dioxide ( 𝐴𝐴 𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴2) uptake capacity. It acts as a global hotspot of atmospheric 𝐴𝐴 𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴2 drawdown due to its permanently cold surface waters, its undersaturation with respect to 𝐴𝐴 𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴2 , and brine rejection during sea-ice formation that mixes surface 𝐴𝐴 𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴2 into deeper water layers (Chen & Borges, 2009;Kaltin et al., 2002). Air-sea 𝐴𝐴 𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴2 exchange exerts an important control on seawater pH and its carbonate saturation state (Ω) (Millero, 2000;Zeebe & Wolf-Gladrow, 2001). An increase in atmospheric 𝐴𝐴 𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴2 level (e.g., by anthropogenic emissions) can induce negative shifts in pH and Ω (Bindoff et al., 2019;Friedlingstein et al., 2019), leading to OA (Doney et al., 2020; Gattuso & Hansson, 2011). In addition to air-sea 𝐴𝐴 𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴2 fluxes, the carbonate chemistry of the Arctic Ocean is further modulated by the distribution of water masses with contrasting physico-chemical

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“…In addition to the notable warming, the Arctic Ocean will also store more fresh water in a warming climate ( 46 , 47 ). Consequently, the potential density of the Arctic Ocean will decrease substantially at both the upper and intermediate depths (in the upper 1500 m; Fig.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Arctic Ocean Amplification in a warming climate in CMIP6 models

et al. 2022

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Arctic near-surface air temperature warms much faster than the global average, a phenomenon known as Arctic Amplification. The change of the underlying Arctic Ocean could influence climate through its interaction with sea ice, atmosphere, and the global ocean, but it is less well understood. Here, we show that the upper 2000 m of the Arctic Ocean warms at 2.3 times the global mean rate within this depth range averaged over the 21st century in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 585 scenario. We call this phenomenon the “Arctic Ocean Amplification.” The amplified Arctic Ocean warming can be attributed to a substantial increase in poleward ocean heat transport, which will continue outweighing sea surface heat loss in the future. Arctic Amplification of both the atmosphere and ocean indicates that the Arctic as a whole is one of Earth’s regions most susceptible to climate change.

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The Arctic Ocean in CMIP6 Models: Biases and Projected Changes in Temperature and Salinity

Cited by 31 publications

References 64 publications

A Synthesis of the Upper Arctic Ocean Circulation During 2000–2019: Understanding the Roles of Wind Forcing and Sea Ice Decline

A Synthesis of the Upper Arctic Ocean Circulation During 2000–2019: Understanding the Roles of Wind Forcing and Sea Ice Decline

Benthic Organic Matter Transformation Drives pH and Carbonate Chemistry in Arctic Marine Sediments

Arctic Ocean Amplification in a warming climate in CMIP6 models

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