The Arctic and Antarctic oscillations and their projected changes under global warming

Fyfe, John C.; Boer, G. J.; Flato, Gregory M.

doi:10.1029/1999gl900317

Cited by 408 publications

(388 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…The AAO index presents only a weak positive trend over the period, as the SAM's main increasing polarity (based on both reanalysis and station data) has been observed during the SH summer (Fyfe et al, 1999;Thompson and Solomon, 2002;Marshall, 2003). The results shown in Figure 3 were also calculated over several different domains between 30°S and 30°N and for all seasons (figures not shown), and the basic patterns are the same reinforcing their robustness as a global pattern for the genesis parameters.…”

Section: Some Climate Aspects Of Hurricane Formationmentioning

confidence: 89%

“…McDonald et al, 2005;Oouchi et al, 2006). Pezza and Simmonds (2005) suggested that SA transitioning events like Catarina could be made more likely under circulation changes, partially those associated with the significant increased positive polarity of Southern Annular Mode (SAM) during the warmer months in the SH (Fyfe et al, 1999;Kwok and Comiso, 2002;Thompson and Solomon, 2002;Marshall, 2003;Renwick, 2004;Cai et al, 2005).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate perspective on the large‐scale circulation associated with the transition of the first South Atlantic hurricane

Pezza

Simmonds

Filho

2008

Intl Journal of Climatology

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ABSTRACT:The landfall of Cyclone Catarina on the Brazilian coast in March 2004 became known as the first documented hurricane in the South Atlantic Ocean, promoting a new view on how large-scale features can contribute to tropical transition. The aim of this paper is to put the large-scale circulation associated with Catarina's transition in climate perspective. This is discussed in the light of a robust pattern of spatial correlations between thermodynamic and dynamic variables of importance for hurricane formation. A discussion on how transition mechanisms respond to the present-day circulation is presented. These associations help in understanding why Catarina was formed in a region previously thought to be hurricane-free.Catarina developed over a large-scale area of thermodynamically favourable air/sea temperature contrast. This aspect explains the paradox that such a rare system developed when the sea surface temperature was slightly below average. But, although thermodynamics played an important role, it is apparent that Catarina would not have formed without the key dynamic interplay triggered by a high latitude blocking. The blocking was associated with an extreme positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) both hemispherically and locally, and the nearby area where Catarina developed is found to be more cyclonic during the positive phase of the SAM. A conceptual model is developed and a 'South Atlantic index' is introduced as a useful diagnostic of potential conditions leading to tropical transition in the area, where large-scale indices indicate trends towards more favourable atmospheric conditions for tropical cyclone formation.

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Section: Some Climate Aspects Of Hurricane Formationmentioning

confidence: 89%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate perspective on the large‐scale circulation associated with the transition of the first South Atlantic hurricane

Pezza

Simmonds

Filho

2008

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…Ozone depletion and greenhouse gasses have increased the strength of the Summer Annual Mode (SAM), which in its positive phase contracts the westerly wind belt southwards and increases their velocity. Ironically, these humaninduced changes to the atmosphere have mitigated the southward penetration of global warming around Antarctica (Fyfe et al, 1999;Marshall, 2003;Turner et al, 2009;Swart and Fyfe, 2012). However, the continuing release of greenhouse gasses and the recovery of the ozone hole will inevitably cause future climate-induced warming and ecosystem change in Antarctic waters (Smetacek and Nicol, 2005;Boyd et al, 2008;Constable et al, 2014).…”

Section: Climate-driven Changes To the Southern Oceanmentioning

confidence: 99%

Southern Ocean phytoplankton physiology in a changing climate

Petrou

Kranz

Trimborn

et al. 2016

Journal of Plant Physiology

104

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Please cite this article in press as: Petrou, K., et al., Southern Ocean phytoplankton physiology in a changing climate. J Plant Physiol (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jplph.2016.05.004 ARTICLE IN PRESS a b s t r a c tThe Southern Ocean (SO) is a major sink for anthropogenic atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), potentially harbouring even greater potential for additional sequestration of CO 2 through enhanced phytoplankton productivity. In the SO, primary productivity is primarily driven by bottom up processes (physical and chemical conditions) which are spatially and temporally heterogeneous. Due to a paucity of trace metals (such as iron) and high variability in light, much of the SO is characterised by an ecological paradox of high macronutrient concentrations yet uncharacteristically low chlorophyll concentrations. It is expected that with increased anthropogenic CO 2 emissions and the coincident warming, the major physical and chemical process that govern the SO will alter, influencing the biological capacity and functioning of the ecosystem. This review focuses on the SO primary producers and the bottom up processes that underpin their health and productivity. It looks at the major physico-chemical drivers of change in the SO, and based on current physiological knowledge, explores how these changes will likely manifest in phytoplankton, specifically, what are the physiological changes and floristic shifts that are likely to ensue and how this may translate into changes in the carbon sink capacity, net primary productivity and functionality of the SO.

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“…An analysis of SH climate shows significant changes in the Southern Annular Mode over recent decades [Thompson and Solomon, 2002;Son et al, 2008]. These changes have been attributed mainly to stratospheric ozone loss [Yang et al, 2007] but also to increases in greenhouse gases [Fyfe et al, 1999]. One manifestation of this trend is the intensification of spring and summer westerly winds.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Aerosol climate feedback due to decadal increases in Southern Hemisphere wind speeds

Korhonen

Carslaw

Forster

et al. 2010

Geophysical Research Letters

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[1] Observations indicate that the westerly jet in the Southern Hemisphere troposphere is accelerating. Using a global aerosol model we estimate that the increase in wind speed of 0.45 ± 0.2 m s À1 decade À1 at 50-65°S since the early 1980s caused a higher sea spray flux, resulting in an increase of cloud condensation nucleus concentrations of more than 85% in some regions, and of 22% on average between 50 and 65°S. These fractional increases are similar in magnitude to the decreases over many northern hemisphere land areas due to changes in air pollution over the same period. The change in cloud drop concentrations causes an increase in cloud reflectivity and a summertime radiative forcing between at 50 and 65°S comparable in magnitude but acting against that from greenhouse gas forcing over the same time period, and thus represents a substantial negative climate feedback. However, recovery of Antarctic ozone depletion in the next two decades will likely cause a fall in wind speeds, a decrease in cloud drop concentration and a correspondingly weaker cloud feedback. Citation: Korhonen, H., K. S. Carslaw, P. M.Forster, S. Mikkonen, N. D. Gordon, and H. Kokkola (2010), Aerosol climate feedback due to decadal increases in Southern Hemisphere wind speeds, Geophys. Res. Lett.,

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The Arctic and Antarctic oscillations and their projected changes under global warming

Cited by 408 publications

References 14 publications

Climate perspective on the large‐scale circulation associated with the transition of the first South Atlantic hurricane

Climate perspective on the large‐scale circulation associated with the transition of the first South Atlantic hurricane

Southern Ocean phytoplankton physiology in a changing climate

Aerosol climate feedback due to decadal increases in Southern Hemisphere wind speeds

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