The anticipatory paradigm

Amos-Binks, Adam; Dannenhauer, Dustin; Gilpin, Leilani H.

doi:10.1002/aaai.12098

Cited by 4 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 37 publications

(63 reference statements)

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“…Yet, there is still indirect evidence supporting this inference. In Amos‐Binks and Dannenhauer (2019), the authors define how anticipatory thinking can take place within the MIDCA cognitive architecture (Cox et al. 2016).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Amos‐Binks and Dannenhauer (2019) also state that another requirement for successful anticipatory thinking is to have a high recall rate, where the actual future is present in the set of identified possible futures. Priming can provide the context to relate the current situation to future ones, even if they have not been directly connected in the past.…”

Section: Contextmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Anticipatory thinking is a rich and versatile capability of the human mind. In it, people identify problems that may arise in the future, whether likely or unlikely, and prepare for them in order to manage the risk of anything undesirable happening (Klein, Snowden, and Pin 2011; Amos‐Binks and Dannenhauer 2019). As such, it is an important part of both people's more mundane daily lives, such as allowing extra time for unexpected traffic if it is important to make it to the airport by a certain time for a flight, as well as impacting critical domains such as business, medicine, and social services (Geden et al.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The role of priming in anticipatory thinking

Hiatt

2023

AI Magazine

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Anticipatory thinking is the act of identifying problems that may arise in the future, and preparing for them in order to mitigate the risk of (or opportunity for) positive or negative impacts occurring. In this paper, we argue that a critical underlying process of anticipatory thinking is cognitive priming, where one's current thoughts influence the next without conscious intention. We make this argument in terms of two aspects of human cognition that are related to anticipatory thinking: context and creativity. We then use the parallels between context, creativity, and anticipatory thinking to support our belief that cognitive priming plays a key role in various aspects of anticipatory thinking. As part of this analysis, we also discuss its broader implications, including how it can be used to improve computational systems that do anticipatory thinking, as well as how it can be leveraged to improve anticipatory thinking in people.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Contextmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The role of priming in anticipatory thinking

Hiatt

2023

AI Magazine

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“…Although there is a long history of AI research on the ability to plan current and future actions to achieve current active goals, there has been little research on how to implement the overlapping capability of anticipatory thinking (AT)—the ability of autonomous agents to think about alternative futures so as to take action now in preparation for possible future goals and situations (Geden et al. 2018; Amos‐Binks and Dannenhauer 2019). A simple example of AT is when a human decides to bring an umbrella on a trip in case of rain.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A cognitive architecture theory of anticipatory thinking

Jones¹,

Laird²

2023

AI Magazine

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We theorize that anticipatory thinking (AT) uses the same computational infrastructure as general cognition as described in the Common Model of Cognition. We extend the Common Model with results from research on event cognition. Using these building blocks, we present a five‐step process model of AT as realized in cognitive architecture components. We then revisit simplifying assumptions underlying our model and expand our theory in response. Finally, we make predictions that are entailed by our account of AT, focusing on how computational limits in both natural and artificial cognitive systems can impact support for AT.

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Anticipating impacts: using large-scale scenario-writing to explore diverse implications of generative AI in the news environment

Kieslich,

Diakopoulos,

Helberger

2024

AI Ethics

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The tremendous rise of generative AI has reached every part of society—including the news environment. There are many concerns about the individual and societal impact of the increasing use of generative AI, including issues such as disinformation and misinformation, discrimination, and the promotion of social tensions. However, research on anticipating the impact of generative AI is still in its infancy and mostly limited to the views of technology developers and/or researchers. In this paper, we aim to broaden the perspective and capture the expectations of three stakeholder groups (news consumers; technology developers; content creators) about the potential negative impacts of generative AI, as well as mitigation strategies to address these. Methodologically, we apply scenario-writing and use participatory foresight in the context of a survey (n = 119) to delve into cognitively diverse imaginations of the future. We qualitatively analyze the scenarios using thematic analysis to systematically map potential impacts of generative AI on the news environment, potential mitigation strategies, and the role of stakeholders in causing and mitigating these impacts. In addition, we measure respondents' opinions on a specific mitigation strategy, namely transparency obligations as suggested in Article 52 of the draft EU AI Act. We compare the results across different stakeholder groups and elaborate on different expected impacts across these groups. We conclude by discussing the usefulness of scenario-writing and participatory foresight as a toolbox for generative AI impact assessment.

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The anticipatory paradigm

Cited by 4 publications

References 37 publications

The role of priming in anticipatory thinking

The role of priming in anticipatory thinking

A cognitive architecture theory of anticipatory thinking

Anticipating impacts: using large-scale scenario-writing to explore diverse implications of generative AI in the news environment

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