The analysis of monitoring data with the aid of time-series analysis

Latesteijn, H.C. van; Lambeck, R.H.D.

doi:10.1007/bf00418022

Cited by 16 publications

(5 citation statements)

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“…A sudden increase in the numbers of Oystercatcher and Bar-tailed Godwit using the Roggenplaat, a tidal flat in the western sector of the Oosterschelde, was shown to coincide with this ( Van Latesteijn & Lambeck, 1986, Lambeck et al, 1989. Wader numbers in the adjacent Krammer-Volkerak increased substantially, while total numbers in the Delta region as a whole did not clearly decrease (Leewis et al ., 1984) .…”

Section: Possible Mechanisms Of Population Declinementioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in the waterbird populations of the Oosterschelde (SW Netherlands) as a result of large-scale coastal engineering works

Schekkerman

Meininger²,

Meire

1994

Hydrobiologia

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Between 1982 and 1987, the construction of a storm-surge barrier and two secondary dams in the eastern and northern parts of the Oosterschelde/Krammer-Volkerak area resulted in the loss of 33% of the 170 km2 of intertidal area in the estuary. Consequences for non-breeding waterbirds were evaluated on the basis of monthly high-tide counts during five seasons before and three seasons after the construction period .In the entire Oosterschelde/Krammer-Volkerak area, numbers of wintering waders decreased but those of ducks increased . Peak numbers and total number of bird-days changed little, but the seasonal pattern shifted from a midwinter maximum to a peak in autumn .In the Oosterschelde (excluding the Krammer-Volkerak), where 17% of the tidal flats disappeared, species feeding mainly on open water remained stable or increased . Species dependent on intertidal areas for foraging (mainly waders and dabbling ducks) generally decreased . Total density of intertidal foragers decreased slightly . In most intertidal species, the Oosterschelde wintering population showed a stronger decrease, or smaller increase, than was shown during the same period by numbers in Britain and Ireland which were taken as an index of the total W-European winter populations . Changes varied considerably between species, and were correlated with their distribution within the estuary . Species concentrated in the eastern sector, where most habitat loss occurred, declined more than species with a more westerly distribution .Results indicate that intertidal foragers forced to move from the enclosed parts of the estuary were not generally able to settle into the remaining intertidal areas . Both dispersal to adjacent areas (mainly by dabbling ducks) and mortality during severe winter weather (in some wader species) may have contributed to the declines, Populations of intertidal foragers apparently were (and consequently still are) close to carrying capacity, and further changes in capacity, as foreseen from geomorphological changes still under way in the estuary, are likely to be reflected in bird populations .Numbers of waders moulting in the Oosterschelde in late summer declined strongly compared to numbers in other seasons . Increased disturbance due to recreational activities may have played a role during this time of the year . 509 5 1 0

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Section: Possible Mechanisms Of Population Declinementioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in the waterbird populations of the Oosterschelde (SW Netherlands) as a result of large-scale coastal engineering works

Schekkerman

Meininger²,

Meire

1994

Hydrobiologia

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“…Analyses vary from a simple comparison of means before and after an impact to designs where samples taken over time are nested within before, after, control, and impact factors, seasonality is accounted for, and the significance of in-teraction terms determines the presence of effects. Less frequently used are those based on a time series of measurements designed to investigate natural variability over time (Poole 1978, Garsd and Howard 1981, Van Latesteijn and Lambeck 1986. Time-series techniques take advantage of any temporal patterns that are present in the data (Box and Jenkins 1976).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Time-series analyses are valid for ecological data (Eberhardt and Thomas 1991), but they are not frequently used (Osenberg and Schmitt 1996; but see Pallesen et al [1985], Van Latesteijn and Lambeck [1986], Aebischer [1990], Carpenter [1990], and Jassby and Powell [1990]). Osenberg and Schmitt (1996) suggested this was due to lack of knowledge as to how systems respond.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, such studies can easily suffer from an inability to incorporate natural spatial and temporal variability observed in empirical data appropriate to the scale of an impact. Some studies have compared time-series intervention analyses with AN-OVA by analyzing a real impact with more than one method (e.g., Madenjian et al 1986, Van Latesteijn and Lambeck 1986, Aebischer 1990, Osenberg and Schmitt 1996. These studies focus on a specific impact of unknown magnitude, and they assess effects on one to two species, thus they potentially lack ecological generality.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Assessing Environmental Impacts: Effects of Spatial and Temporal Variability at Likely Impact Scales

Hewitt

Thrush

Cummings

2001

Ecological Applications

112

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Ecological and environmental variability in natural ecosystems precludes the widespread use of simplistic design and analysis tools to detect the effects of human activities on natural ecosystems. BACI (Before–After and Control–Impact) sampling and analysis is often recommended to overcome the problem of inferring that changes are due to an impact rather than natural variability. Using five different BACI design and analysis techniques (from nested ANOVA to time‐series intervention) on data with spatial, temporal, and sampling variability at scales relevant to impact assessments, we investigated how BACI designs cope with interactions between spatial and temporal variability and whether natural variability is best treated as random. A number of simulated impacts of different sizes and types were imposed on long‐term observations of six macrofaunal species and three diversity indices. A major problem in detecting the impacts was the differences in variability between sites, although the statistical detection of impacts was aided by treating temporal variability as an underlying process with structure, rather than random noise. However, the sensitivity of any method depended on the spatial and temporal variability exhibited by the ecological measure. Our results emphasize that scale is one of the most important concepts in impact assessment. As spatial or temporal scale increases, both the number of processes and their importance in influencing local populations and communities will change, increasing the variability encompassed by the study. We suggest monitoring a number of variables (populations) and developing sampling strategies that enable a number of methods of analysis to be employed.

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“…Bird numbers following embankments in the Tees, for instance, were difficult to interpret because of interactions between species (Evans, 1981). "Natural" fluctuations in bird numbers between years (Smit & Wolff, 1981) and the apparent possibilities of at least some birds to compensate for area loss (van Latesteijn & Lambeck, 1986) make interpretations even more difficult. In order to understand the consequences of human activities more fully, additional information should be collected, next to information on bird numbers, on how migratory birds are exploiting the available wetlands.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Perspectives in using shorebird counts for assessing long-term changes in wader numbers in the Wadden Sea

Smit¹

1989

Helgolander Meeresunters

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Over the past 20 years, a tradition has developed in western Europe of carrying out shorebird surveys in estuaries. These counts are mostly conducted by amateur ornithologists, usually well acquainted with the area in which they are active. The results of these surveys are well reproducible for at least the abundant species, and information is available on the size of the errors which occur. In several parts of Europe, shorebird surveys have been carried out long enough to allow trend analysis of population size. Four examples from Great Britain demonstrate that monitoring schemes may also be used for management purposes, especially if combined with specific research projects. Long-term shorebird surveys can be used not only for simple analysis of trends in bird numbers, but also to provide a deeper understanding of the functioning of the ecosystem. They may also act as a tool to document the .effects of management activities in the area concerned. Shorebird surveys in the Wadden Sea have not only revealed the extremely large importance of the area, especially for waders, but also show that different areas are exploited in different ways. They have also provided data on changes in bird numbers throughout the year.

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The analysis of monitoring data with the aid of time-series analysis

Cited by 16 publications

References 1 publication

Changes in the waterbird populations of the Oosterschelde (SW Netherlands) as a result of large-scale coastal engineering works

Changes in the waterbird populations of the Oosterschelde (SW Netherlands) as a result of large-scale coastal engineering works

Assessing Environmental Impacts: Effects of Spatial and Temporal Variability at Likely Impact Scales

Perspectives in using shorebird counts for assessing long-term changes in wader numbers in the Wadden Sea

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