Despite the increasing evidence of drastic and profound changes in many ecosystems, often referred to as regime shifts, we have little ability to understand the processes that provide insurance against such change (resilience). Modelling studies have suggested that increased variance may foreshadow a regime shift, but this requires long-term data and knowledge of the functional links between key processes. Field-based research and ground-truthing is an essential part of the heuristic that marries theoretical and empirical research, but experimental studies of resilience are lagging behind theory, management and policy requirements. Empirically, ecological resilience must be understood in terms of community dynamics and the potential for small shifts in environmental forcing to break the feedbacks that support resilience. Here, we integrate recent theory and empirical data to identify ways we might define and understand potential thresholds in the resilience of nature, and thus the potential for regime shifts, by focusing on the roles of strong and weak interactions, linkages in meta-communities, and positive feedbacks between these and environmental drivers. The challenge to theoretical and field ecologists is to make the shift from hindsight to a more predictive science that is able to assist in the implementation of ecosystem-based management.

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There is a growing threat of habitat change in estuarine and coastal regions, yet there are few models that enable ecologists and resource managers to forecast the response of macrofaunal species to long-term changes in sediment type. This study details a novel strategy that enabled us to rapidly collect data on macrofaunal densities and sediment characteristics by sampling mud-to-sand transition zones in 19 estuaries. Species-specific models that predict probability of occurrence relative to sediment mud content were developed for 13 common macrofaunal species. However, the roles played by many macrofaunal species are influenced by density, not just occurrence. Over broad spatial scales, the constraint an environmental variable places on density can be represented by the upper (or lower) limit on density. Thus, the distribution of maximum density along the gradient from mud to sand was modelled as another indicator of a species' preference. Both the maximum and minimum values for number of taxa, number of individuals, Shannon-Wiener diversity and taxonomic distinctness were also modelled. For most variables, good models (r 2 > 0.6) were developed. The models developed for the different species exhibited a wide variety of functional forms, highlighting the potential variation in response to habitat change even for closely related species with similar natural history characteristics. Probability-of-occurrence models and maximum-density models for a specific species also varied in functional form, emphasising that changes in both occurrence and density need to be considered when predicting likely responses to changes in habitat.

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JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact support@jstor.org.. Ecological Society of America is collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and extend access to Ecology.Abstract.An important ecological issue is developing an understanding of how patterns and processes vary with scale. We designed a field experiment to test how differences in the aerial extent of disturbance affected macrofaunal recolonization on a sandflat. Three different plot sizes (0.203 m2, 0.81 m2, and 3.24 m2) were defaunated, and samples were collected to assess recovery over a 9-mo period. As the sandflat used for the experiment was prone to disturbance by wind-driven waves, we also measured changes in sediment bed height (an indicator of sediment stability) over the course of the experiment. Most common species revealed significant relationships between density and disturbance plot size. Scale-dependent recovery was also demonstrated by differences in species assemblage structure over the course of the experiment. Relative rates of colonization varied by -50% between large and small experimental plots. However, these differences were not related to specific species, particular functional groups, or potential modes of colonization. The results revealed an unusually slow rate of faunal recovery following defaunation. Both increasing numbers of colonists and density changes in ambient sediments made an important contribution to recovery. The relationship found between changes in sediment bed height and wind velocity indicated that wind-driven wave disturbance was an important factor influencing sediment instability. Sediment instability was higher in all experimental plots than in the ambient sediments, due to the initial removal of a dense spionid polychaete tube mat characteristically found at the study site. Sediment instability also increased with increasing plot size. Thus in this dynamic sandflat habitat, faunal emigration from recovering disturbed patches of sediment may significantly slow rates of recolonization. These results demonstrate that incorporating patch size, emigration, recovery time, and interactions between hydrodynamic conditions and habitat stability (particularly where colonists influence sediment stability) are crucial to generating a general understanding of recovery processes in soft-sediment habitats. While our results demonstrate the need for caution in scaling-up from small-scale studies, they do indicate that larger scale disturbances that destroy organisms with a role in maintaining habitat stability are likely to result in very slow recovery dynamics, particularly in wave-disturbed soft-sediment habitats.Ecological communities are commonly affected by disturbance events that vary in extent, intensity, and frequency; consequently they...

Ocean acidification is a well recognised threat to marine ecosystems. High latitude regions are predicted to be particularly affected due to cold waters and naturally low carbonate saturation levels. This is of concern for organisms utilising calcium carbonate (CaCO3) to generate shells or skeletons. Studies of potential effects of future levels of pCO2 on high latitude calcifiers are at present limited, and there is little understanding of their potential to acclimate to these changes. We describe a laboratory experiment to compare physiological and metabolic responses of a key benthic bivalve, Laternula elliptica, at pCO2 levels of their natural environment (430 µatm, pH 7.99; based on field measurements) with those predicted for 2100 (735 µatm, pH 7.78) and glacial levels (187 µatm, pH 8.32). Adult L. elliptica basal metabolism (oxygen consumption rates) and heat shock protein HSP70 gene expression levels increased in response both to lowering and elevation of pH. Expression of chitin synthase (CHS), a key enzyme involved in synthesis of bivalve shells, was significantly up-regulated in individuals at pH 7.78, indicating L. elliptica were working harder to calcify in seawater undersaturated in aragonite (ΩAr = 0.71), the CaCO3 polymorph of which their shells are comprised. The different response variables were influenced by pH in differing ways, highlighting the importance of assessing a variety of factors to determine the likely impact of pH change. In combination, the results indicate a negative effect of ocean acidification on whole-organism functioning of L. elliptica over relatively short terms (weeks-months) that may be energetically difficult to maintain over longer time periods. Importantly, however, the observed changes in L. elliptica CHS gene expression provides evidence for biological control over the shell formation process, which may enable some degree of adaptation or acclimation to future ocean acidification scenarios.

The wider effects of fishing on marine ecosystems have become the focus of growing concern among scientists, fisheries managers and the fishing industry. The present review examines the role of habitat structure and habitat heterogeneity in marine ecosystems, and the effects of fishing (i.e. trawling and dredging) on these two components of habitat complexity. Three examples from New Zealand and Australia are considered, where available evidence suggests that fishing has been associated with the degradation or loss of habitat structure through the removal of large epibenthic organisms, with concomitant effects on fish species which occupy these habitats. With ever‐increasing demands on fish‐stocks and the need for sustainable use of fisheries resources, new approaches to fisheries management are needed. Fisheries management needs to address the sustainability of fish‐stocks while minimizing the direct and indirect impacts of fishing on other components of the ecosystem. Two long‐term management tools for mitigating degradation or loss of habitat structure while maintaining healthy sustainable fisheries which are increasingly considered by fisheries scientists and managers are: (1) protective habitat management, which involves the designation of protected marine and coastal areas which are afforded some level of protection from fishing; and (2) habitat restoration, whereby important habitat and ecological functions are restored following the loss of habitat and/or resources. Nevertheless, the protection of marine and coastal areas, and habitat restoration should not be seen as solutions replacing conventional management approaches, but need to be components of an integrated programme of coastal zone and fisheries management. A number of recent international fisheries agreements have specifically identified the need to provide for habitat protection and restoration to ensure long‐term sustainability of fisheries. The protection and restoration of habitat are also common components of fisheries management programs under national fisheries law and policy.

When changes in the frequency and extent of disturbance outstrip the recovery potential of resident communities, the selective removal of species contributes to habitat loss and fragmentation across landscapes. The degree to which habitat change is likely to influence community resilience will depend on metacommunity structure and connectivity. Thus ecological connectivity is central to understanding the potential for cumulative effects to impact upon diversity. The importance of these issues to coastal marine communities, where the prevailing concept of open communities composed of highly dispersive species is being challenged, indicates that these systems may be more sensitive to cumulative impacts than previously thought. We conducted a disturbance-recovery experiment across gradients of community type and environmental conditions to assess the roles of ecological connectivity and regional variations in community structure on the recovery of species richness, total abundance, and community composition in Mahurangi Harbour, New Zealand. After 394 days, significant differences in recovery between sites were apparent. Statistical models explaining a high proportion of the variability (R2 > 0.92) suggested that community recovery rates were controlled by a combination of physical and ecological features operating across spatial scales, affecting successional processes. The dynamic and complex interplay of ecological and environmental processes we observed driving patch recovery across the estuarine landscape are integral to recovery from disturbances in heterogeneous environments. This link between succession/recovery, disturbance, and heterogeneity confirms the utility of disturbance-recovery experiments as assays for cumulative change due to fragmentation and habitat change in estuaries.