The analysis of aridity in Central Serbia from 1949 to 2015

Radaković, Milica G.; Tošić, Ivana; Bačević, Nikola; Mladjan, Dragan; Gavrilov, Milivoj B.; Marković, Slobodan B.

doi:10.1007/s00704-017-2220-8

Cited by 39 publications

(37 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…In Hrnjak et al [17], very similar results in aridity trends with the De Martonne's aridity index and the Pinna combinative index were obtained, for the territory of Vojvodina, for the period 1949-2006. Very similar results in aridity trends for the previous two indices have been obtained for other Serbian regions, namely Kosovo and Metohija [18] and Central Serbia [19], where it has also been found that there is no trend. The same result, but without the FAI trend, in Vojvodina was obtained for the period 1949-2006 [32].…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 84%

“…MK tests are used widely in the environmental sciences, assisting in measurements and analyses of temperature, precipitation, sunshine hours, cloud cover, relative humidity and wind speed [68]; temperature and precipitation [66]; precipitation [69]; extreme temperatures [42,43,67,70]; hail [71][72][73][74]; aridity [17][18][19]32,75]; evapotranspiration [76]; and atmospheric deposition [77]. MK tests are simple, robust, and can cope with missing values.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It has been almost a century since the French climatologist De Martonne created the DM Aridity Index. It has been used in many countries, including Greece [12], Turkey [9], Romania [13], Iran [51], Spain [14], as well as Serbia [17][18][19].…”

Section: The De Martonne Aridity Indexmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This index can be calculated for different time scales, such as months, seasons and years. The DM index is used worldwide in order to identify the dry/humid climate conditions of any given region or regions [9,[12][13][14][15][16], and provides a satisfactory description of the climate regions and climatic changes in the territory of Serbia, for the period 1949-2015 as well [17][18][19]. Similar to the DM index, the Pinna [20] combinative aridity index can be calculated using the annual amount of precipitation and the mean annual surface temperature.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Independent Aridity and Drought Pieces of Evidence Based on Meteorological Data and Tree Ring Data in Southeast Banat, Vojvodina, Serbia

Gavrilov

et al. 2019

Atmosphere

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In this study, aridity data and tree ring data were collected in Northern Serbia, in Southeast (SE) Banat, a subregion within Vojvodina, and Vojvodina at large. They were each investigated independently. The De Martonne Aridity Index and the Forestry Aridity Index are derived from examining the relationship between precipitation and surface air temperature data sets sourced from seven meteorological stations in SE Banat, and from 10 meteorological stations located in Vojvodina as a whole. Vojvodina is a large territory and used as the control area, for the period 1949–2017. The Palmer Drought Severity Index was derived for the period 1927–2016, for both SE Banat and the totality of Vojvodina. The results of the Tree Ring Width Index were obtained from samples collected in or around the villages of Vlajkovac and Šušara, both located in SE Banat, for the period 1927–2017. These tree ring records were compared with three previous aridity and drought indices, and the meteorological data on the surface air temperature and the precipitation, with the objective being to evaluate the response of tree growth to climate dynamics in the SE Banat subregion. It was noted that the significant positive temperature trends recorded in both areas were too insufficient to trigger any trends in aridity or the Tree Ring Width Index, as neither displayed any change. Instead, it appears that these climatic parameters only changed in response to the precipitation trend, which remained unchanged during the investigated period, rather than in response to the temperature trend. It appears that the forest vegetation in the investigated areas was not affected significantly by climate change in response to the dominant temperature increase.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 84%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: The De Martonne Aridity Indexmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Independent Aridity and Drought Pieces of Evidence Based on Meteorological Data and Tree Ring Data in Southeast Banat, Vojvodina, Serbia

Gavrilov

et al. 2019

Atmosphere

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“…Northern Serbia is characterized by arid climate [25,26]. The western part of Serbia has humid climate characteristics [27], as well as areas with higher altitude [28]. The combination of climate and forest coverage leads to a high potential danger for fire in southern and eastern Serbia, especially in the warmest and driest months of the year, which are July and August.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential influence of meteorological variables on forest fire risk in Serbia during the period 2000-2017

et al. 2019

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To examine potential relationships between meteorological variables and forest fires in Serbia, daily temperature, precipitation, relative humidity and wind speed data for 15 meteorological stations across Serbia were used to construct fire indices. The daily values of the Ångström and Nesterov indices were calculated for the period 2000-2017. A high number of forest fires occurred in 2007 and 2012 in Serbia, during a period of extremely high air temperatures in 2007, followed by the longest heat wave and the worst drought in 2012. In order to identify the ideal weather conditions for fire break outs, different combinations of input variables, e.g., meteorological variables (mean temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, maximum temperature, minimum temperature and wind speed), fire danger indices or a combination of both, for the Belgrade area during the period 1986-2017, were tested. It was found that using relative humidity or precipitation as a predictor only generates a satisfactory model for forecasting of number of forest fires.

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Projected changes in air temperature, precipitation and aridity in Serbia in the 21st century

Milovanović

Schubert

Radovanović

et al. 2021

Intl Journal of Climatology

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In this study, the projected changes of the average monthly and annual air temperatures, precipitation amounts and De Martonne aridity index in Serbia in the 21st century are examined. For that purpose, the spatial distribution of air temperature and precipitation amount is statistically modelled using data of 64 climatologic stations and 421 precipitation stations for the period 1976-2005 using multiple linear regression. The De Martonne aridity index is calculated from the spatially distributed data. In order to obtain regional averages and variability, we divide Serbia into three subdomains: the western zone (the Dinarides), eastern mountainous (Carpathian-Balkan) zone and the terrains with altitudes lower than 500 m a.s.l. (Lowland). As a second step, the members of the COordinated Regional Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX) for Europe (EURO-CORDEX) are evaluated in terms of near-surface air temperature and precipitation for Serbia. By comparing respective values for the period 1976-2005 with future periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100, we derive the climate change signal for near-surface air temperature, precipitation and the De Martonne index for both scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Hereby, the ensemble averages are calculated as weighted averages using the inverse standardized Euclidean distance by comparing observation and model results for nearsurface air temperature and precipitation as a weight. We find for the period 2071-2050 that most ensemble members predict a statistically significant increase in monthly and annual near-surface air temperature in both scenarios in all three subdomains, and a statistically significant decrease in the yearly De Martonne index in the RCP8.5 scenario in the Carpathian-Balkan and Dinarides. For the last decades of the 21st century, our findings indicate much higher temperatures and increased risks of drought for the RCP 8.5 scenario compared to both the observations from 1976 to 2005 and the RCP 4.5 scenario.

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The analysis of aridity in Central Serbia from 1949 to 2015

Cited by 39 publications

References 27 publications

Independent Aridity and Drought Pieces of Evidence Based on Meteorological Data and Tree Ring Data in Southeast Banat, Vojvodina, Serbia

Independent Aridity and Drought Pieces of Evidence Based on Meteorological Data and Tree Ring Data in Southeast Banat, Vojvodina, Serbia

Potential influence of meteorological variables on forest fire risk in Serbia during the period 2000-2017

Projected changes in air temperature, precipitation and aridity in Serbia in the 21st century

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