The African SWIFT Project: Growing Science Capability to Bring about a Revolution in Weather Prediction

Abstract

Africa is poised for a revolution in the quality and relevance of weather predictions, with potential for great benefits in terms of human and economic security. This revolution will be driven by recent international progress in nowcasting, numerical weather prediction, theoretical tropical dynamics and forecast communication, but will depend on suitable scientific investment being made. The commercial sector has recognized this opportunity and new forecast products are being made available to African stakeholders. At this time, it is vital that robust scientific methods are used to develop and evaluate the new generation of forecasts. The GCRF African SWIFT project represents an international effort to advance scientific solutions across the fields of nowcasting, synoptic and short-range severe weather prediction, subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction, user engagement and forecast evaluation. This paper describes the opportunities facing African meteorology and the ways in which SWIFT is meeting those opportunities and identifying priority next steps.Delivery and maintenance of weather forecasting systems exploiting these new solutions requires a trained body of scientists with skills in research and training; modelling and operational prediction; communications and leadership. By supporting partnerships between academia and operational agencies in four African partner countries, the SWIFT project is helping to build capacity and capability in African forecasting science. A highlight of SWIFT is the coordination of three weather-forecasting “Testbeds” – the first of their kind in Africa – which have been used to bring new evaluation tools, research insights, user perspectives and communications pathways into a semi-operational forecasting environment.

Experiences of co‐producing sub‐seasonal forecast products for agricultural application in Kenya and Ghana

“…Although sub‐seasonal forecasts have been found to be skilful over Africa and could be of immense value to the agriculture sector, limited data availability and capacity within NMHS has meant that previously such products have not been available for the majority of farmers across sub‐Saharan Africa. Recently through the Global Challenges Research Fund (GCRF) African SWIFT project (Science for Weather Information and Forecasting Techniques1; Parker et al ., 2022) and the S2S Prediction project Real‐time Pilot Initiative (Vitart et al, 2017; WMO, 2018), tailored sub‐seasonal forecast products have been made available to specific users in the agriculture sectors in Kenya and Ghana. Here, we present our experiences of co‐producing sub‐seasonal forecast products for two different agricultural applications in Ghana and Kenya, including the products produced, examples of how they assist in decision‐making and lessons learnt for future applications.…”

Economic value and latent demand for agricultural drought forecast: Emerging market for weather and climate information in Central-Southern Nigeria

“…Market values for nonmarket goods such as weather and climate information which are not typically paid for by the public in an established market can be estimated using the Contingent Valuation Method (CVM) (Freebairn and Zillman, 2002). This method is an economic valuation which refers to the assignment of monetary values of changes in environmental services and functions and to stocks of environmental assets (Pearce and Turner, 1990).…”

Tropical Africa’s First Testbed for High-Impact Weather Forecasting and Nowcasting

“…The African Science for Weather Information and Forecasting Techniques (African SWIFT, Parker et al 2022) program was designed to bring significant improvements in African forecasting capability. African SWIFT is built on collaboration between researchers and operational forecast services in four African countries -Kenya, Nigeria, Ghana, and Senegaland the UK, as well as several regional and pan-African weather and climate services.…”