The advantages of demographic change after the wave: fewer and older, but healthier, greener, and more productive?

Abstract

Population aging is an inevitable global demographic process. Most of the literature on the consequences of demographic change focuses on the economic and societal challenges that we will face as people live longer and have fewer children. In this paper, we (a) briefly describe key trends and projections of the magnitude and speed of population aging; (b) discuss the economic, social, and environmental consequences of population aging; and (c) investigate some of the opportunities that aging societies create. We use Germany as a case study. However, the general insights that we obtain can be generalized to other developed countries. We argue that there may be positive unintended side effects of population aging that can be leveraged to address pressing environmental problems and issues of gender inequality and intergenerational ties.

Reduced Consumption for Transport due to Population Ageing? An Analysis of Expenditures of Private Households in the European Union and Potential Implications for the Public Sector

“…On the one hand, a reduction in CO 2 emissions would be the consequence of less demand in transportation facilities (Kluge et al, 2014). On the other hand, the decrease of work related expenditures and especially mobility, could lead to an increase in economic growth within the living region of retired people due to the shift in demand for regionally offered products and services (Mayerhofer, Aigner and Döring, 2010).…”

Aging Human Populations: Good for Us, Good for the Earth

“…Aging populations pose challenges, yet the literature suggests that they are manageable and often overstated [28,29]. Given smart, long-term economic planning, necessary services can continue to be supported, while smaller populations provide opportunities to advance environmental sustainability and maximize human wellbeing [30][31][32]88]. Thus, under the assumption of such long-term planning, our hypothesis is that reduced population growth and particularly population decline in aging countries benefit people and the environment.…”

“…Lower fertility rates lead to smaller families. One important yet often overlooked economic benefit of this is an increase in the per capita value of bequests, as older generations pass on their wealth to younger ones [31]. Not only through inheritance but throughout life, investment per child is increased when children are fewer [29].…”

“…Aging populations provide a potential for further emission reductions due to declining agespecific consumption at older ages. Although there are sector, timing, and scale-effect discrepancies [33,[58][59][60], in the long run population aging is expected to reduce emissions [31]. For example, by 2050 population aging in China could reduce global energy-related emissions by 700 Mt carbon dioxide [60].…”

Could we all live to 100? Should we?

“…On the other hand, better health might enable more people to stay in the workforce longer and, formal employment aside, to be socially productive in many other ways, as volunteers for example. Demographic change may have other advantages: better‐educated and longer‐lived populations may be more environmentally parsimonious, for example 15 …”