The 24 July 2008 outburst flood at the western Zyndan glacier lake and recent regional changes in glacier lakes of the Teskey Ala-Too range, Tien Shan, Kyrgyzstan

Narama, Chiyuki; Duishonakunov, Murataly; Kääb, Andreas; Daiyrov, Mirlan; Abdrakhmatov, Kanatbek

doi:10.5194/nhess-10-647-2010

Cited by 75 publications

(113 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…Hence, it could be expected that the number and area of potentially dangerous lakes increases in the study area, a fact which is confirmed by this study. Other studies on glacial lakes in the same and adjacent mountain ranges of the Tien Shan show similar results (Erohin and Cerny 2009;; Jansky et al 2011;; Narama et al 2009; Narama et al , 2010a; Popov 1988). Further glacier shrinkage will probably lead to higher danger of a GLOF.…”

Section: Potentially Dangerous Glacial Lakes (Pdgl)supporting

confidence: 72%

Identification of potentially dangerous glacial lakes in the northern Tien Shan

et al. 2011

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Like in many other parts of the world, the glaciers in northern Tien Shan are receding, and the permafrost is thawing. Concomitantly, glacial lakes are developing. Historically, outbursts of these glacial lakes have resulted in severe hazards for infrastructures and livelihood. Multi-temporal space imageries are an ideal means to study and monitor glaciers and glacial lakes over large areas. Geomorphometric analysis and modelling allows to estimate the potential danger for glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). This paper presents a comprehensive approach by coupling of remote sensing, geomorphometric analyses aided with GIS modelling for the identification of potentially dangerous glacial lakes. We suggest a classification scheme based on an additive ratio scale in order to prioritise sites for detailed investigations. The identification and monitoring of glacial lakes was carried out semi-automatically using band ratioing and the normalised difference water index (NDWI) based on multi-temporal space imagery from the years 1971 to 2008 using Corona, ASTER and Landsat data. The results were manually edited when required. The probability of the growth of a glacial lake was estimated by analysing glacier changes, glacier motion and slope analysis. A permafrost model was developed based on geomorphometric parameters, solar radiation and regionalised temperature conditions which permitted to assess the influence of potential permafrost thawing. Finally, a GIS-based model was applied to simulate the possibly affected area of lake outbursts. The findings of this study indicate an increasing number and area of glacial lakes in the northern Tien Shan region. We identified several lakes with a medium to high potential for an outburst after a classification according to their outburst probability and their downstream impact. These lakes should be investigated more in detail. Bolch, T., Peters, J., Pradhan, B., Yegorov, A., Buchroithner, M.F., Blagoveshchensky,V. (2011) Geomorphometric analysis and modelling allows to estimate the potential danger for glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). This paper presents a comprehensive approach by coupling of remote sensing, geomorphometric analyses aided with GIS modelling for the identification of potentially dangerous glacial lakes. We suggest a classification scheme based on an additive ratio scale in order to prioritize sites for detailed investigations. The identification and monitoring of glacial lakes was carried out semi-automatically using band ratioing and the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) based on multi-temporal space imagery from the years 1971 to 2008 using Corona, ASTER and Landsat data. The results were manually edited when required. The probability of the growth of a glacial lake was estimated by analysing glacier changes, glacier motion, and slope analysis. A permafrost model was developed based on geomorphometric parameters, solar radiation and regionalised temperature conditions which permitted to assess the influence of potential permafrost tha...

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Section: Potentially Dangerous Glacial Lakes (Pdgl)supporting

confidence: 72%

Identification of potentially dangerous glacial lakes in the northern Tien Shan

et al. 2011

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“…hazardous glacial lakes may evolve within less than one year. This phenomenon was illustrated not only by the Dasht event, but also by the outburst of the western Zyndan glacier lake in the Tien-Shan (Kyrgyzstan) in 2008 (Narama et al, 2010). This means that careful monitoring of the glacial environment is required in order to keep updated on developing hazards.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, several events are known from the Tien Shan, most recently the outbursts of the Archa-Bashy glacier lake in 1998 and of the western Zyndan glacier lake in 2008 (Narama et al, 2010).…”

Section: The Dasht 2002 Eventmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Clarke, 1982;Hewitt, 1982;Haeberli, 1983;Watanabe and Rothacher, 1996;Richardson and Reynolds, 2000;Vilímek et al, 2005;Narama et al, 2010). Climate change, with its impact on the glacial extent, the hydrological cycle and the condition of ice-bearing dams, may condition the occurrence of GLOFs in manifold ways and on different time scales (Evans and Clague, 1994;IPCC, 2007;Dussaillant et al, 2009;Haeberli et al, 2010a).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Regional-scale analysis of lake outburst hazards in the southwestern Pamir, Tajikistan, based on remote sensing and GIS

Mergili

Schneider

2011

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. This paper presents an analysis of the hazards emanating from the sudden drainage of alpine lakes in SouthWestern Tajik Pamir. In the last 40 yr, several new lakes have formed in the front of retreating glacier tongues, and existing lakes have grown. Other lakes are dammed by landslide deposits or older moraines. In 2002, sudden drainage of a glacial lake in the area triggered a catastrophic debris flow. Building on existing approaches, a rating scheme was devised allowing quick, regional-scale identification of potentially hazardous lakes and possible impact areas. This approach relies on GIS, remote sensing and empirical modelling, largely based on medium-resolution international datasets. Out of the 428 lakes mapped in the area, 6 were rated very hazardous and 34 hazardous. This classification was used for the selection of lakes requiring in-depth investigation. Selected cases are presented and discussed in order to understand the potentials and limitations of the approach used. Such an understanding is essential for the appropriate application of the methodology for risk mitigation purposes.

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“…Very little is known or understood about groundwater in the Far North, or how it might be changing because observations are so sparse (Bense et al, 2009;Moran and Solin, 2006). There are considerable unknowns about the timing of glacial retreat, thawing of permafrost, and change in subsurface storage of water (Walsh et al, 2014;Murray et al, 2010).…”

Section: Estimating and Reducing Uncertaintymentioning

confidence: 99%

Planning for climate change impacts on hydropower in the Far North

Cherry

Knapp

Trainor

et al. 2017

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Unlike much of the contiguous United States, new hydropower development continues in the Far North, where climate models project precipitation will likely increase over the next century. Regional complexities in the Arctic and subArctic, such as glacier recession and permafrost thaw, however, introduce uncertainties about the hydrologic responses to climate change that impact water resource management. This work reviews hydroclimate changes in the Far North and their impacts on hydropower; it provides a template for application of current techniques for prediction and estimating uncertainty, and it describes best practices for integrating science into management and decision-making. The growing number of studies on hydrologic impacts suggests that information resulting from climate change science has matured enough that it can and should be integrated into hydropower scoping, design, and management. Continuing to ignore the best available information in lieu of status quo planning is likely to prove costly to society in the long term.

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The 24 July 2008 outburst flood at the western Zyndan glacier lake and recent regional changes in glacier lakes of the Teskey Ala-Too range, Tien Shan, Kyrgyzstan

Abstract: The 24 July 2008 outburst flood at the western Zyndan glacier lake and recent regional changes in glacier lakes of the Teskey Ala-Too range,

Cited by 75 publications

References 24 publications

Identification of potentially dangerous glacial lakes in the northern Tien Shan

Identification of potentially dangerous glacial lakes in the northern Tien Shan

Regional-scale analysis of lake outburst hazards in the southwestern Pamir, Tajikistan, based on remote sensing and GIS

Planning for climate change impacts on hydropower in the Far North

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