Planning for climate change impacts on hydropower in the Far North

Abstract

Abstract. Unlike much of the contiguous United States, new hydropower development continues in the Far North, where climate models project precipitation will likely increase over the next century. Regional complexities in the Arctic and subArctic, such as glacier recession and permafrost thaw, however, introduce uncertainties about the hydrologic responses to climate change that impact water resource management. This work reviews hydroclimate changes in the Far North and their impacts on hydropower; it provides a template for application of current techniques for prediction and estimating uncertainty, and it describes best practices for integrating science into management and decision-making. The growing number of studies on hydrologic impacts suggests that information resulting from climate change science has matured enough that it can and should be integrated into hydropower scoping, design, and management. Continuing to ignore the best available information in lieu of status quo planning is likely to prove costly to society in the long term.

Using MODIS estimates of fractional snow cover area to improve streamflow forecasts in interior Alaska

“…All of these shifts are leading to increased streamflow variability (Stuefer et al, 2017), which has strong impacts on the infrastructure and economy of Alaska, and the Arctic as a whole (Instanes et al, 2016), leading to a substantial task in terms of observing, understanding, mitigating, and adapting to these effects. The Far North (Arctic and subarctic) is also rapidly developing its hydroelectric water resources, unlike the contiguous US, and needs accurate decision support for managing this infrastructure (Cherry et al, 2017;Sturm et al, 2017).…”

“…There are two main ways that these data have been used to date: to either directly insert a time series of fSCA data into the model (McGuire et al, 2006;Rodell et al, 2004) or use complex assimilation procedures to filter the snow series and merge it with observational data (Andreadis and Lettenmaier, 2006;Sun et al, 2004;Zaitchik and Rodell, 2009). There is a concern that direct insertion methods are ineffective at improving streamflow models and do not perform better than uninformed models because melt can occur before snow cover drops below 100 % (Clark et al, 2006). In addition, the melt season duration is often short, transitioning rapidly from snow covered to snow free, although this is largely basin dependent (Clark et al, 2006).…”

“…There is a concern that direct insertion methods are ineffective at improving streamflow models and do not perform better than uninformed models because melt can occur before snow cover drops below 100 % (Clark et al, 2006). In addition, the melt season duration is often short, transitioning rapidly from snow covered to snow free, although this is largely basin dependent (Clark et al, 2006). Assimilation approaches have yet to be integrated into operational models, in part because of the limited research showing the impacts of assimilation on the hydrologic forecast.…”

Arctic permafrost landscapes in transition: towards an integrated Earth system approach

“…For example, the development and assessment of new hydroelectric schemes in the far North must now consider not only the changing precipitation regime, but also changes in flow paths through eroding permafrost landscapes, and the increased sediment loads that may accelerate infilling of reservoirs and affect turbine operations (Cherry et al 2017). In Canada, an extensive consultation with northern communities, engineers and permafrost specialists has led to a set of national standards for geotechnical surveys before construction on permafrost (BNQ 2017).…”

Effects of Climate Change and Flow Regulation on the Flow Characteristics of a Low-Relief River within Southern Boreal Climate Area

“…Therefore, it is essential to consider the local conditions (such as geographical, geological, topographical, and climatological conditions) when assessing climate change impacts. Global-and regional-scale studies on climate change impacts on hydrology by hydrological modeling have been performed widely [24,[34][35][36][37][38][39], and the impact of climate change on river discharge and reservoir hydropower production has been studied, for example, in Alpine [40] and Arctic regions [41], as well as in northern countries [42][43][44][45]. However, studies investigating the co-effects of climate change and discharge regulation on the river morphology in low-altitude and low-relief, seasonally ice-covered areas, are lacking in the literature [7,46,47].…”