The 2019–2020 Australian forest fires are a harbinger of decreased prescribed burning effectiveness under rising extreme conditions

Abstract

There is an imperative for fire agencies to quantify the potential for prescribed burning to mitigate risk to life, property and environmental values while facing changing climates. The 2019–2020 Black Summer fires in eastern Australia raised questions about the effectiveness of prescribed burning in mitigating risk under unprecedented fire conditions. We performed a simulation experiment to test the effects of different rates of prescribed burning treatment on risks posed by wildfire to life, property and infrastructure. In four forested case study landscapes, we found that the risks posed by wildfire were substantially higher under the fire weather conditions of the 2019–2020 season, compared to the full range of long-term historic weather conditions. For area burnt and house loss, the 2019–2020 conditions resulted in more than a doubling of residual risk across the four landscapes, regardless of treatment rate (mean increase of 230%, range 164–360%). Fire managers must prepare for a higher level of residual risk as climate change increases the likelihood of similar or even more dangerous fire seasons.

Incorporating burn heterogeneity with fuel load estimates may improve fire behaviour predictions in south-east Australian eucalypt forest

“…Thus, improved models of fine fuel loads, particularly bark fuels that affect spotting distance, can further improve predictions of fire spread. However, we note that improved fuel load mapping may not necessarily lead to improved fire behaviour simulations under all weather conditions, with fuel exerting less influence on fire behaviour under more extreme fire weather conditions (Clarke et al 2022).…”

Quantifying the direct fire threat to a critically endangered arboreal marsupial using biophysical, mechanistic modelling

“…Despite this and the fact that observed wildfire rates of spread have no relationship to fuel load (Storey et al, 2021), McArthur's model continues to underpin Amicus and other major Australian fire management tools (e.g. Clarke et al, 2019; Tolhurst et al, 2008).…”

A Wildfire Smoke Detection System Using Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Images Based on the Optimized YOLOv5

“…In addition, dry soil and crop destruction caused by fires have a negative effect on agricultural activities and crop productivity in areas closest to the blazes. The United States, Australia, Brazil, and Canada are just a few countries with a history of devastating wildfires [ 5 , 6 , 7 , 8 ]. More than 1500 buildings were destroyed in the recent Australian wildfire, along with approximately half a million animals and 23 people.…”