Quantifying the direct fire threat to a critically endangered arboreal marsupial using biophysical, mechanistic modelling

Zylstra, Philip

doi:10.1111/aec.13264

Cited by 6 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 78 publications

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“…This is because the calculation relates to horizontal rates of spread and ignores vertical spread through the fuel ladder. Consequently, purportedly low intensity fires can still burn with high severity, and cause mass mortality of species that are sensitive to high severity fire (Zylstra, 2023).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mechanisms by which growth and succession limit the impact of fire in a south‐western Australian forested ecosystem

et al. 2023

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1. Forest wildfire impact is widely believed to increase with time since disturbance, presenting a dilemma for the persistence of fire-sensitive species. However, in south-western Australia, disturbance has been shown to increase wildfire likelihood for some decades before it again declines. It has been proposed that this trend occurs through 'ecological controls' on wildfire such as the self-thinning of fire-stimulated understorey growth.2. Here, we analyse six proposed ecological controls using a surveyed chronosequence of a Eucalyptus jacksonii forest community. We quantify plant growth (growth and self-pruning) and succession (changing plant traits, self-thinning), along with consequent changes in surface and suspended litter. We then use a biophysical, mechanistic model to predict the dynamics of flame height and canopy scorch/consumption, along with suppression difficulty during wildfire conditions.To identify the importance of each potential ecological control, we separately manipulate them to grow hypothetical forests from 1 to 100 years; each with one of the controls removed. We then model flame height in each to compare with the original forest that had all controls present. 3. Fire initially promoted dense understorey regeneration, but ecological controls transferred this biomass from fuel (likely to ignite) to overstorey shelter (unlikely to ignite, creating a less flammable microclimate). The effect of these changes was to alter modelled fire behaviour, such that flame dimensions in mature forest were half those in regrowth, canopy damage greatly reduced, and fire suppression opportunities maximised. The primary controls were self-thinning and self-pruning. Forest growth and succession explains observed trends in flammability dynamicsin south-western Australian forests, and the persistence of fire-sensitive species over time. Approaches that cooperate with, rather than disrupt, these processes therefore provide a pathway to mitigate current climatic effects on fire.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mechanisms by which growth and succession limit the impact of fire in a south‐western Australian forested ecosystem

et al. 2023

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“…One of the central issues identified by Zylstra (2023) was that characterising the rate at which fuels are consumed using the rate of fire spread ignores the vertical dimension of fire spread. In the study by Zylstra (2023), 'torching' fire behaviour with little to no fire spread rate produced very large and highly damaging flames, but because of the low rate of spread, the equation by Byram (1959) described these flames as having very low intensity. By envisioning fuels as a single value, Byram's equation renders the three-dimensional structure of vegetation irrelevant, and assumes that the entire structure is simply represented by weight as the single number termed 'fuel load'.…”

Section: Determinants Of Flammabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Although sound as a conceptual model, the application of this equation to fire behaviour and effects such as crown scorch is problematic. One of the central issues identified by Zylstra (2023) was that characterising the rate at which fuels are consumed using the rate of fire spread ignores the vertical dimension of fire spread. In the study by Zylstra (2023), ‘torching’ fire behaviour with little to no fire spread rate produced very large and highly damaging flames, but because of the low rate of spread, the equation by Byram (1959) described these flames as having very low intensity.…”

Section: Determinants Of Flammabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Identifying and managing disturbance‐stimulated flammability in woody ecosystems

Lindenmayer,

Zylstra

2023

Biological Reviews

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Many forest types globally have been subject to an increase in the frequency of, and area burnt by, high‐severity wildfire. Here we explore the role that previous disturbance has played in increasing the extent and severity of subsequent forest fires. We summarise evidence documenting and explaining the mechanisms underpinning a pulse of flammability that may follow disturbances such as fire, logging, clearing or windthrow (a process we term disturbance‐stimulated flammability). Disturbance sometimes initiates a short initial period of low flammability, but then drives an extended period of increased flammability as vegetation regrows. Our analysis initially focuses on well‐documented cases in Australia, but we also discuss where these pattens may apply elsewhere, including in the Northern Hemisphere. We outline the mechanisms by which disturbance drives flammability through disrupting the ecological controls that limit it in undisturbed forests. We then develop and test a conceptual model to aid prediction of woody vegetation communities where such patterns of disturbance‐stimulated flammability may occur. We discuss the interaction of ecological controls with climate change, which is driving larger and more severe fires. We also explore the current state of knowledge around the point where disturbed, fire‐prone stands are sufficiently widespread in landscapes that they may promote spatial contagion of high‐severity wildfire that overwhelms any reduction in fire spread offered by less‐flammable stands.We discuss how land managers might deal with the major challenges that changes in landscape cover and altered fire regimes may have created. This is especially pertinent in landscapes now dominated by extensive areas of young forest regenerating after logging, regrowing following broadscale fire including prescribed burning, or regenerating following agricultural land abandonment.Where disturbance is found to stimulate flammability, then key management actions should consider the long‐term benefits of: (i) limiting disturbance‐based management like logging or burning that creates young forests and triggers understorey development; (ii) protecting young forests from disturbances and assisting them to transition to an older, less‐flammable state; and (iii) reinforcing the fire‐inhibitory properties of older, less‐flammable stands through methods for rapid fire detection and suppression.

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“…High environmental temperatures predispose animals to heat stress, including physiological and behavioral disturbances such as hyperventilation and loss of coordination. For any species, there is a body temperature threshold beyond which cells undergo denaturation of proteins and membrane structures degrade, causing the individual's death [14,34]. Beyond the heat from flames, reduced oxygen and exposure to toxic compounds following smoke inhalation may be critical factors that increase animal mortality during a fire [35].…”

Section: During Firementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Decreased sensitivity: Fast runners that can reach higher maximum speeds and escape the flames or travel greater distances, increasing the chances of finding safe shelter away from the fire [71]; birds that can fly higher and avoid the rising column of gasses, smoke, ash, particulates, and other debris produced by a fire [72,73]; lizards with longer limbs, larger toe pads, and more lamellae can run faster, exert stronger cling forces, and perch higher [74]; skilled climbers able to reach the tops of taller trees (at least 4-5 m above) [7,34]; larger jumpers with great effective jump height and other jumping specialists (e.g., arthropods that use catapult mechanisms [67,68].…”

Section: Mobilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

In Case of Fire, Escape or Die: A Trait-Based Approach for Identifying Animal Species Threatened by Fire

Batista

Figueira

Solar

et al. 2023

Fire

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Recent studies have argued that changes in fire regimes in the 21st century are posing a major threat to global biodiversity. In this scenario, incorporating species’ physiological, ecological, and evolutionary traits with their local fire exposure might facilitate accurate identification of species most at risk from fire. Here, we developed a framework for identifying the animal species most vulnerable to extinction from fire-induced stress in the Brazilian savanna. The proposed framework addresses vulnerability from two components: (1) exposure, which refers to the frequency, extent, and magnitude to which a system or species experiences fire, and (2) sensitivity, which reflects how much species are affected by fire. Sensitivity is based on biological, physiological, and behavioral traits that can influence animals’ mortality “during” and “after” fire. We generated a Fire Vulnerability Index (FVI) that can be used to group species into four categories, ranging from extremely vulnerable (highly sensible species in highly exposed areas), to least vulnerable (low-sensitivity species in less exposed areas). We highlight the urgent need to broaden fire vulnerability assessment methods and introduce a new approach considering biological traits that contribute significantly to a species’ sensitivity alongside regional/local fire exposure.

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Quantifying the direct fire threat to a critically endangered arboreal marsupial using biophysical, mechanistic modelling

Cited by 6 publications

References 78 publications

Mechanisms by which growth and succession limit the impact of fire in a south‐western Australian forested ecosystem

Mechanisms by which growth and succession limit the impact of fire in a south‐western Australian forested ecosystem

Identifying and managing disturbance‐stimulated flammability in woody ecosystems

In Case of Fire, Escape or Die: A Trait-Based Approach for Identifying Animal Species Threatened by Fire

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