The 2014 Hot, Dry Summer in Northeast Asia

Wilcox, Laura; Dong, Buwen; Sutton, Rowan; Highwood, Ellie

doi:10.1175/bams-d-15-00123.1

Cited by 21 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 14 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The sensitivity of precipitation to sulfate aerosols has been investigated (e.g. Wu et al 2013, Haywood et al 2013and Wilcox et al 2015. Detection and attribution in regional water cycles including drought and precipitation remains difficult.…”

Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Climate models are widely used for attribution studies, but the fidelity of precipitation and regional water cycles simulated by state of the art climate models is generally low (Kusunoki andArakawa 2015, Sperber et al 2013). A recent study on severe drought over Northeast China in the summer of 2014 found that precipitation responses to forcing are small, partly related to climate model bias in simulating precipitation (Wilcox et al 2015). An intermediate approach is needed to best utilize currently available climate model information to support climate change impact assessment and adaptation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Aerosol forcing of extreme summer drought over North China

Zhang

Zhou

2017

Environ. Res. Lett.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The frequency of extreme summer drought has been increasing in North China during the past sixty years, which has caused serious water shortages. It remains unclear whether anthropogenic forcing has contributed to the increasing extreme droughts. Using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) re-analysis data and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model simulations with various combinations of historical forcings, the authors investigated the driving mechanism behind the observed changes. Metrological drought is usually measured by precipitation anomalies, which show lower fidelity in current climate models compared to largescale circulation patterns. Based on NCEP/NCAR re-analysis, a linear relationship is firstly established between the weakest regional average 850 hPa southerly winds and extreme summer drought. This meridional winds index (MWI) is then used as a proxy for attribution of extreme North China drought using CMIP5 outputs. Examination of the CMIP5 simulations reveals that the probability of the extreme summer droughts with the first percentile of MWI for 1850-2004 under anthropogenic forcing has increased by 100%, on average, relative to a pre-industrial control run. The more frequent occurrence of extremely weak MWIs or drought over North China is ascribed from weakened climate and East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) circulation due to the direct cooling effect from increased aerosol.Environ. Res. Lett. 12 (2017) 034020

show abstract

Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Aerosol forcing of extreme summer drought over North China

Zhang

Zhou

2017

Environ. Res. Lett.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Secondly, the experiments only consist of three ensemble members; this is consistent with experiments used in other studies but the availability of more members would help to more robustly isolate the forced response from the background of internal variability. Finally, we acknowledge that the simulated response might be affected by model biases in reproducing certain characteristics of the Asian monsoon (Wilcox et al 2015a).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Do differences in future sulfate emission pathways matter for near-term climate? A case study for the Asian monsoon

et al. 2017

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Continent convective region. Remote impacts across the Northern Hemisphere are also generated, including a northwestward shift of West African monsoon rainfall induced by the westward displacement of the Indian Ocean Walker cell, and temperature anomalies in northern midlatitudes linked to propagation of Rossby waves from East Asia. These results indicate that aerosol emissions are a key source of uncertainty in near-term projection of regional and global climate; a careful examination of the uncertainties associated with aerosol pathways in future climate assessments must be highly prioritised.

show abstract

“…Overall, attribution using statistical analysis of observed time series works best for temperature or variables that are closely related to temperature, as global and many regional results are available that quantify the human contribution to long-term temperature change. For example, regional temperature scales reasonably well with the global temperature evolution on longer timescales for many, but by far not all regions (see Sutton et al, 2015). Studies that rely on such supporting evidence attributing the trend should point this out clearly.…”

Section: Statistical Analysis Of Observed Change In Eventsmentioning

confidence: 89%