Do differences in future sulfate emission pathways matter for near-term climate? A case study for the Asian monsoon

Bartlett, R. E.; Bollasina, Massimo; Booth, Ben B. B.; Dunstone, Nick; Marenco, Franco; Messori, Gabriele; Bernie, Dan

doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3726-6

Cited by 28 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 74 publications

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“…They must be calculated through coupled climate models, but these models have known and persistent biases, for example, in their representation of clouds and wind patterns 21 . Their simulated response of the monsoons to aerosol perturbations is under debate 22,23 , as are their representation of precipitation and temperature extremes 24,25 .…”

Section: Uncertain Implicationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Emerging Asian aerosol patterns

et al. 2019

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Section: Uncertain Implicationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Emerging Asian aerosol patterns

et al. 2019

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“…Extension of the response into the Atlantic basin typically arises via tropically generated Rossby waves (Hoskins and Karoly, 1981;Ting et al, 1996;Held et al, 2002;Scaife et al, 2017). Stratospheric pathways for teleconnections between the tropical Pacific and the North Atlantic have also been proposed (Bell et al, 2009;Allen and Sherwood, 2011;Domeisen et al, 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mechanisms for a remote response to Asian anthropogenic aerosol in boreal winter

et al. 2019

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Asian emissions of anthropogenic aerosols and their precursors have increased rapidly since 1980, with half of the increase since the pre-industrial era occurring in this period. Transient experiments with the HadGEM3-GC2 coupled model were designed to isolate the impact of Asian anthropogenic aerosols on global climate in boreal winter. It is found that this increase has resulted in local circulation changes, which in turn have driven decreases in precipitation over China, alongside an intensification of the offshore monsoon flow. No large temperature changes are seen over China. Over India, the opposite response is found, with decreasing temperatures and increasing precipitation. The dominant feature of the local circulation changes is an increase in low-level convergence, ascent, and precipitation over the Maritime Continent, which forms part of a tropical Pacificwide La Niña-like response.HadGEM3-GC2 also simulates pronounced far-field responses. A decreased meridional temperature gradient in the North Pacific leads to a positive Pacific-North American circulation pattern, with associated temperature anomalies over the North Pacific and North America. Anomalous northeasterly flow over northeast Europe drives advection of cold air into central and western Europe, causing cooling in this region. An anomalous anticyclonic circulation over the North Atlantic causes drying over western Europe. Using a steadystate primitive equation model, LUMA, we demonstrate that these far-field midlatitude responses arise primarily as a re-sult of Rossby waves generated over China, rather than in the equatorial Pacific.Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union.

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“…The uncertainty in the emission pathway alone represents a key limiting factor to a robust quantification and isolation of the overall aerosol impact on climate. Yet, possible differences in the climate response to varying aerosol emissions trajectories, all the other forcings being the same, have been mostly overlooked so far (e.g., Sillmann et al (2013); Pendergrass et al 10 (2015); Bartlett et al (2016)).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Significant climate impacts of aerosol changes driven by growth in energy use and advances in emissions control technology

Zhao¹,

Bollasina²,

Crippa³

et al. 2019

Preprint

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Abstract. Anthropogenic aerosols have increased significantly since the industrial revolution, driven largely by growth in emissions from energy use in sectors including power generation, industry, and transport. Advances in emission control technologies since around 1970, however, have partially counteracted emissions increases from the above sectors. Using the fully-coupled Community Earth System Model, we quantify the effective radiative forcing (ERF) and climate response to 1970&#8211;2010 aerosol emission changes associated with the above two policy-relevant emission drivers. Emissions from energy use growth generate a global mean aerosol ERF of &#8722;0.31&#8201;W&#8201;m&#8722;2, and result in a global mean cooling of &#8722;0.35&#8201;K and a precipitation reduction of &#8722;0.03&#8201;mm&#8201;day&#8722;1. By contrast, the avoided emissions from advances in emission control technology, which benefit air quality, generate a global mean ERF of +0.21&#8201;W&#8201;m&#8722;2, a global warming of +0.10&#8201;K and global mean precipitation increase of +0.01&#8201;mm&#8201;day&#8722;1. The total net aerosol impacts on climate are dominated by energy use growth, from Asia in particular. However, technology advances outweigh energy use growth over Europe and North America. Also, the Arctic climate is significantly affected by aerosol emission changes from Europe, North America, and Asia. Various non-linear processes are involved along the pathway from aerosol emissions to radiative forcing and ultimately to climate responses, suggesting that the diagnosed aerosol forcing and effects must be interpreted in the context of experiment designs. Further, the temperature response per unit aerosol ERF varies significantly across many factors, including location and magnitude of emission changes, implying that ERF, and the related metrics, need to be used very carefully for aerosols. Future aerosol emission pathways have large temporal and spatial uncertainties; our findings provide useful information for both assessing and interpreting such uncertainties, and may help inform future climate change impact reduction strategies.

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Do differences in future sulfate emission pathways matter for near-term climate? A case study for the Asian monsoon

Cited by 28 publications

References 74 publications

Emerging Asian aerosol patterns

Emerging Asian aerosol patterns

Mechanisms for a remote response to Asian anthropogenic aerosol in boreal winter

Significant climate impacts of aerosol changes driven by growth in energy use and advances in emissions control technology

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