The 2002 Midterm Election: A Typical or an Atypical
                                Midterm?

Campbell, James E.

doi:10.1017/s1049096503002087

Cited by 7 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 28 publications

(21 reference statements)

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“…Democrats were predicted to pick up a small but significant 11 seats in the House. This small level of seat change is consistent with the overall reduction in the number of seats that are likely to change hands over time, documented elsewhere (Campbell 2003). Furthermore, the Democrats were forecast to pick up three seats in the Senate.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 88%

Forecasting the 2008 U.S. House, Senate and Presidential Elections at the District and State Level

Klarner

2008

APSC

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This paper applies the forecasting models of Klarner and Buchanan (2006a) for the U.S. Senate and Klarner and Buchanan (2006b) for the U.S. House of Representatives to the upcoming 2008 elections. Forecasts are also conducted for the 2008 presidential race at the state level. The forecasts presented in this article, made July 28, 2008 (99 days before the election), predicted an 11-seat gain for the Democrats in the House of Representatives, a three-seat gain for the Democrats in the Senate, and that Barack Obama would obtain 53.0% of the popular vote and 346 electoral votes. Furthermore, Obama was forecast to have an 83.6% chance of winning the White House and an 85.9% chance of winning the popular vote.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 88%

Forecasting the 2008 U.S. House, Senate and Presidential Elections at the District and State Level

Klarner

2008

APSC

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“…The 1970s saw a 6.7 percent change, the 1980s a 5.0 percent, the 1990s 5.1 percent, and the first decade of the 21 st Century a mere 4.0 percent change. This finding parallels Campbell's (2003) observation that the propensity for seats to change hands in the U.S. House has declined over time.…”

Section: Some Background To the Electionsupporting

confidence: 81%

Forecasting Control of State Governments and Redistricting Authority After the 2010 Elections

Klarner¹

2010

The Forum

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This article makes forecasts for the 2010 state legislative and gubernatorial elections. These forecasts indicate the Republicans will add control of 15 legislative chambers and nine governors offices, leaving them with 51 chambers and 32 governorships. Forecasts about the extent of redistricting authority by the Democratic and Republican parties indicate the Republicans will have authority over 125 U.S. House seats, while the Democrats will have authority over 62. In a chamber level analysis of 2,141 legislative and a state level analysis of 758 gubernatorial elections, four national forces are used in predicting election outcomes from 1950 to present: presidential approval, change in per capita income, midterm loss, and the percentage of respondents who say they will vote for a Democrat for the U.S. House. The differential effect of these forces in states with the straight-ticket option is also taken into account. Monte Carlo simulation that takes into account states different rules regarding redistricting authority is then utilized to assess how many U.S. House seats the Democratic and Republican parties will control.

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“…Απορρίπτοντας όλες τις άλλες θεωρίες για τις ενδιάµεσες εκλογές, παρουσίασε τα αποτελέσµατα του 2002 ως ένα χαρακτηριστικό παράδειγµα της θεωρίας της «διόγκωσης και συρρίκνωσης», πρβλ. J. E Campbell (2003). ό.π.…”

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Οι Ευρωεκλογές Στην Ελλάδα

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Η προσέγγιση των «ενδιάµεσων απωλειών» στο επίπεδο της Ευρωπαϊκής Ένωσης Tο ερµηνευτικό µοντέλο των Ευρωεκλογών……………………………………………… 84 3.1 Εισαγωγικές παρατηρήσεις…………………………………………………………… 84 3.1.1 Το ιστορικό εξέλιξης του Ευρωπαϊκού Κοινοβουλίου και της διεξαγωγής του θεσµού των Ευρωεκλογών (1979-2004)………………………………………………….. 85 3.2 Η προσέγγιση των «εθνικών εκλογών δεύτερης τάξης» (Second order national elections) των K. Reif και H.Schmitt …………………………………………………….. 89 3.2.1 Οι άξονες του µοντέλου των «εκλογών δεύτερης τάξης»…………………………... 93 3.3 Η «διάσταση των περιορισµένων διακυβευµάτων» προσδιοριστικό σηµείο της εκλογικής συµπεριφοράς στις Ευρωεκλογές……………………………………………...

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The 2002 Midterm Election: A Typical or an Atypical Midterm?

Cited by 7 publications

References 28 publications

Forecasting the 2008 U.S. House, Senate and Presidential Elections at the District and State Level

Forecasting the 2008 U.S. House, Senate and Presidential Elections at the District and State Level

Forecasting Control of State Governments and Redistricting Authority After the 2010 Elections

Οι Ευρωεκλογές Στην Ελλάδα

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