Forecasting Control of State Governments and Redistricting Authority After the 2010 Elections

Abstract

This article makes forecasts for the 2010 state legislative and gubernatorial elections. These forecasts indicate the Republicans will add control of 15 legislative chambers and nine governor’s offices, leaving them with 51 chambers and 32 governorships. Forecasts about the extent of redistricting authority by the Democratic and Republican parties indicate the Republicans will have authority over 125 U.S. House seats, while the Democrats will have authority over 62. In a chamber level analysis of 2,141 legislative and a state level analysis of 758 gubernatorial elections, four national forces are used in predicting election outcomes from 1950 to present: presidential approval, change in per capita income, midterm loss, and the percentage of respondents who say they will vote for a Democrat for the U.S. House. The differential effect of these forces in states with the straight-ticket option is also taken into account. Monte Carlo simulation that takes into account states’ different rules regarding redistricting authority is then utilized to assess how many U.S. House seats the Democratic and Republican parties will control.

A Paradox of Political Reform: Shadow Interests in the U.S. States

“…Party polarization within legislatures does not seem to attenuate this connection (Gray, Cluverius, Harden, Shor, & Lowery, 2015). As in Gray et al (2015), I employ modified Ranney indices (Klarner, 2010) that accurately reflect party competition within legislatures. Specifically, I include 6-year averages within my models that are folded so that higher values indicate greater one-party dominance.…”

Party Competition, Party Polarization, and the Changing Demand for Lobbying in the American States

“…14. For more information on Carl Klarner's measures of chamber switch probability, and other applications of these measures, see Klarner (2010). When incorporating gubernatorial elements, this measure predicts 96% of the variance in the Ranney Index in 2007.…”

“…Therefore, we substitute a folded version of the Klarner index of party control; Klarner's (2010) index measures the probabilities of Democratic Party control of a legislative chamber 9 months in advance, averaged between the two chambers. Our measure reflects the conditions of the chambers at the beginning of the 1997 or 2007 legislative session and adjusts for states without elections in 1997 or 2007.…”

2018 State Legislative Election Forecasts

“…In 2010, the PS forecast made on July 22, 2010 predicted that the Republicans would pick up 11 chambers, while they actually picked up 21, with 82% of chambers being correctly called (see Klarner 2010; 2011). A later forecast, made on September 18 (Klarner 2010b) predicted the Republicans would gain 15 chambers, and called 89% of them correctly.…”