The 1993 RPA timber assessment update

Haynes, Richard W.; Adams, Darius M.; Mills, John R.

doi:10.2737/rm-gtr-259

Cited by 55 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 13 publications

(14 reference statements)

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“…Base case projections with the FASOM model have intertemporal investment decisions linked to harvest timing and suggest that U.S. private timberlands have considerable potential for sustainable wood production under intensifi ed management. Indeed, forest investment at levels projected by FASOM's optimization approach could lead to substantially greater timber harvest volumes and lower prices than those in the TNAA base case (as presented in Haynes et al 1995). Under FASOM's assumptions of perfect foresight and perfect capital markets, harvest could potentially expand to meet growing demand such that softwood log prices would vary little over the projection.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…When FASOM base case projections of planted areas are compared to the TNAA projections, results differed more in degree than in form. This may refl ect, in part, consideration of data on "economic opportunities" for silvicultural investments by management experts in the TNAA system as they developed their intensity shifting assumptions (Haynes et al 1995). The tendency would be to assume more area moving to higher management intensity classes in regions and ownerships where such opportunities are abundant (see, for example, USDA Forest Service 1990: Chapter 9).…”

Section: Plantation Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…An initial comparison is made between the "base" projections of the models. The assumptions for demand and other market conditions are the same for both models and derive from the USDA Forest Service's 1993 RPA Update (Haynes et al 1995). In the TNAA model management investment shifts are derived from external sources, as described above.…”

Section: Projections Of Private Investment With Tnaa and Fasommentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Private timberland in the United States comprises 145 million hectares and supplies the largest part of the country's wood requirements (Powell et al 1993). Despite increased substitution of nonwood products for wood and slower economic and population growth, the long-term demand for wood products is not expected to decline (Haynes et al 1995). U.S. population will continue to grow, particularly in the southern and western regions, with a projected increase of more than 120 million people by 2050.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Alternative projections of the impacts of private investment on southern forests: a comparison of two large-scale forest sector models of the United States

Alig¹,

Adams²,

Mills³

et al. 2001

Silva Fenn.

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The TAMM/NAPAP/ATLAS/AREACHANGE (TNAA) system and the Forest and Agriculture Sector Optimization Model (FASOM) are two large-scale forestry sector modeling systems that have been employed to analyze the U.S. forest resource situation. The TNAA system of static, spatial equilibrium models has been applied to make 50-year projections of the U.S. forest sector for more than 20 years. Much of its input on forest management behavior and decisions about use of forestland derives from expert-based systems external to the TNAA system. FASOM, a spatial intertemporal optimization model, directly incorporates decisions on management investment and land use options relative to agricultural alternatives as endogenous model elements. The paper contrasts projections of private forest investment from the TNAA and FASOM models, focusing on the southern United States. Comparison of the TNAA base case and an investmentrestricted scenario from FASOM, both of which refl ect a continuation of recent behavioral tendencies by nonindustrial private owners, suggests that Southern private timberlands have considerable biological and economic potential for intensifi ed forest management. Unrestricted FASOM projections confi rm that added investment could lead to substantially larger timber harvest volumes and lower prices than those projected in the base/restricted cases. But even under the more intensive investment scenarios, naturally regenerated forests would cover three-quarters of the future private timberland base and hardwoods would continue to dominate the inventory structure.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Plantation Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Projections Of Private Investment With Tnaa and Fasommentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Alternative projections of the impacts of private investment on southern forests: a comparison of two large-scale forest sector models of the United States

Alig¹,

Adams²,

Mills³

et al. 2001

Silva Fenn.

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show abstract

“…Their study estimated how harvests could shift over time, along with changes in tree planting investment, as part of the dynamic adjustment of markets and capital stocks to global change. The study used timber demand information from the USDA Forest Service's Resources Planning Act (RPA) Assessment database and modeling systems (see, e.g., Haynes et al 1995, Adams & Haynes 1996 and resource information similar to that used in the Joyce et al (1995) study. The treatment by Callaway et al (1994) of existing forests was somewhat unrealistic, however, in that initial tree inventories as well as subsequent growth were adjusted instantaneously for climate change impacts.…”

Section: Past Studies Of the Forestry Effects Of Climate Changementioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of global climate change on the US forest sector: response functions derived from a dynamic resource and market simulator

McCarl¹,

Adams²,

Alig³

et al. 2000

Clim. Res.

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A multiperiod, regional, mathematical programming economic model is used to evaluate the potential economic impacts of global climatic change on the US forest sector. A wide range of scenarios for the biological response of forests to climate change are developed, ranging from small to large changes in forest growth rates. These scenarios are simulated in the economic forest sector model and results are summarized in response functions that may be used instead of rerunning the model as improved or altered biological response scenarios arise. The response functions are used to characterize broad impacts of climate change on the sector. We find that aggregate impacts (across all consumers and producers in the sector) are relatively small but that producers income and future welfare 30 to 40 yr in the future are most at risk. The forest sector is found to have adjustment mechanisms that mitigate climate change impacts, including interregional migration of production, substitution in consumption, and altered stand management. KEY WORDS: Climate change · US forest · Sector analysis · Response functionResale or republication not permitted without written consent of the publisher Clim Res 15: 195-205, 2000 range of possible biological outcomes, the response functions summarize the model projections of an array of measures of sector performance as stimulated by a wide variety of changes in forest growth. Employing these functions, analysts can explore particular climate change scenarios and rapidly generate projections of the associated economic effects as new findings arise on biological growth impacts. The following sections of this paper describe problem background, prior studies and then the methods employed to develop the response functions. Subsequently, we illustrate how the resulting functions can be used to provide specific and general characterizations of impacts. FOREST RESOURCE AND PRODUCT MARKET IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGEGlobal atmospheric change would affect tree growing conditions, but the nature of the altered climate could vary substantially in different regions. Impacts on forests arise from increases in atmospheric CO 2 concentration, change in temperature regimes, and variations in patterns of rainfall over the year. These shifts would alter basic physiological processes in trees and soils, influencing tree growth and the yield of commercial products over time. The actual time pattern of change will be complex, owing to lags between atmospheric changes, climate effects and biological responses (see Winnett 1998 for a review of the growth change issues). Economic impacts resulting from growth changes will be further delayed due to the length of forestry rotations, generally involving 2 or more decades.1 Thus, an examination of the effects of climate change on forests needs to consider forest rotation decisions as well as lags between the onset of climate change and realized biological impacts. These dynamic aspects of climateinduced changes in forest yield need to be addressed with a model...

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Large-Scale Regional Assessments: Lessons Learned from the Southern Appalachian Assessment

Wear¹

Ecological Modeling for Resource Management

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The 1993 RPA timber assessment update

Cited by 55 publications

References 13 publications

Alternative projections of the impacts of private investment on southern forests: a comparison of two large-scale forest sector models of the United States

Alternative projections of the impacts of private investment on southern forests: a comparison of two large-scale forest sector models of the United States

Effects of global climate change on the US forest sector: response functions derived from a dynamic resource and market simulator

Large-Scale Regional Assessments: Lessons Learned from the Southern Appalachian Assessment

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