Alternative projections of the impacts of private investment on southern forests: a comparison of two large-scale forest sector models of the United States

Abstract

The TAMM/NAPAP/ATLAS/AREACHANGE (TNAA) system and the Forest and Agriculture Sector Optimization Model (FASOM) are two large-scale forestry sector modeling systems that have been employed to analyze the U.S. forest resource situation. The TNAA system of static, spatial equilibrium models has been applied to make 50-year projections of the U.S. forest sector for more than 20 years. Much of its input on forest management behavior and decisions about use of forestland derives from expert-based systems external to the TNAA system. FASOM, a spatial intertemporal optimization model, directly incorporates decisions on management investment and land use options relative to agricultural alternatives as endogenous model elements. The paper contrasts projections of private forest investment from the TNAA and FASOM models, focusing on the southern United States. Comparison of the TNAA base case and an investmentrestricted scenario from FASOM, both of which refl ect a continuation of recent behavioral tendencies by nonindustrial private owners, suggests that Southern private timberlands have considerable biological and economic potential for intensifi ed forest management. Unrestricted FASOM projections confi rm that added investment could lead to substantially larger timber harvest volumes and lower prices than those projected in the base/restricted cases. But even under the more intensive investment scenarios, naturally regenerated forests would cover three-quarters of the future private timberland base and hardwoods would continue to dominate the inventory structure.

A Spatial Price Determination Model for Multi‐Market Heterogeneously Distributed Resources: An Application to Forestry Markets in Sweden

“…They measured the price-distance relationship and responsiveness of prices to distance from source through distance elasticity of price. However, the most common approach to analyze spatial price impacts on forest products has been by using spatial equilibrium models (Alig et al 2001;Adams and Latta 2005;Chang and Gaston 2014;Sun and Bogdanski 2017). Specifically, Sun and Bogdanski (2017) explore the price dynamics of imported forest products using a spatial equilibrium price model to simulate actual and hypothetical trade policies.…”

“…They found that the prices are sensitive to the form of program adopted. Alig et al () contrast projections of private forest prices from two large forest sector models (TNAA and FASOM). The TNAA model is a static, spatial equilibrium model while FASOM is a spatial intertemporal optimization model.…”

Climate change, carbon, and forestry in northwestern North America: proceedings of a workshop November 14-15, 2001 Orcas Island, Washington.

“…Although the planting of trees to create forest plantations has emerged as a major activity in recent decades, about 90 percent of U.S. forestland area has naturally regenerated stands. Major U.S. forest regions have widely different potentials to attract private investments in tree planting and in forest production more generally (Alig et al 2001). Rapid tree growth generally translates into higher potential economic returns to investors; tree growth is fastest in the South and high-rainfall areas of the Pacific Northwest.…”