Testing the impact of direct and indirect flood warnings on population behaviour using an agent-based model

Abstract

Abstract. This paper uses a coupled hydrodynamic agent-based model (HABM) to investigate the effect of direct or indirect warnings in flood incident response. This model uses the LISFLOOD-FP hydrodynamic model and the NetLogo agent-based framework and is applied to the 2005 flood event in Carlisle, UK. The hydrodynamic model provides a realistic simulation of detailed flood dynamics through the event, whilst the agent-based model component enables simulation and analysis of the complex, in-event social response. NetLogo enables alternative probabilistic daily routine and agent choice scenarios for the individuals of Carlisle to be simulated in a coupled fashion with the flood inundation. Specifically, experiments are conducted using a novel “enhanced social modelling component” based on the Bass diffusion model. From the analysis of these simulations, management stress points (predictable or otherwise) can be presented to those responsible for hazard management and post-event recovery. The results within this paper suggest that these stress points can be present, or amplified, due to a lack of preparedness or a lack of phased evacuation measures. Furthermore, the methods outlined here have the potential for application elsewhere to reduce the complexity and improve the effectiveness of flood incident management. The paper demonstrates the influence that emergent properties have on systematic vulnerability and risk from natural hazards in coupled socio-environmental systems.

A Cross-Sectional Study on the Flood Emergency Preparedness among Healthcare Providers in Saudi Arabia

“…While future training on general disaster response and preparedness and command center activities to enhance the collaborations between stakeholders seems to be crucial, additional areas of improvement needed for managing the impacts of future episodes of floods requires the development of national preparedness and training guidelines for hospitals in SA, including full-scale disaster exercises to measure the effectiveness of preparedness and response [39][40][41][42]. Directions for future research should focus on the differences in terms of preparedness among hospitals belonging to governmental sectors (MOH, MOE, MODA, MOI, and SANG) in order to tailor training programs according to regional-and/or hospital-specific contexts and needs, and should also direct additional focus on all hazard responses, command center operations, and communications [43][44][45][46][47].…”

Optimal Agent Framework: A Novel, Cost-Effective Model Articulation to Fill the Integration Gap between Agent-Based Modeling and Decision-Making

“…So, the percentage of persons who become users through WOM is called imitation rate, which is denoted by q, and the ones who become users through the advertisement is called innovation rate, which is denoted by p. e original version of the model was an aggregate model based on an SD methodology. To build more realistic models of the diffusion of innovation, some researchers have tried to model the diffusion process with ABM [16,93]. In [94], a suitable literature review of AB models was provided for innovation diffusion.…”

The shape-shifting form of UK floodplains: Fusing analysis of the territorially constructed with analysis of natural terrain processes

“…In the UK, with an urban population of 83%, building has expanded historically onto floodplains. This is exemplified by Carlisle (Figure 1) where city development in all its forms has come to occupy flood-liable zones along the River Eden and its smaller tributaries – but with associated flood damage (O’Shea et al, 2020) and with increasing financial risk as the climate changes (Bates et al, 2022). The fragmenting of physical systems, such as those with disconnected or constricted floodwater flows, can result in serious unintended consequences just as for transformed biological ones (Dasgupta, 2021; Knox et al, 2022; Steiger et al, 2005; Viles and Coombs, 2022).…”

“…It is advancing understanding of deliberated patterns of s ocio-physical floodplain land consumption by human agency in the UK that is the focus here. We stress also that floodplain histories and the drivers of change have been diverse across the globe, and historically evolving trajectories elsewhere will not follow the UK pattern.

Figure 1.Floods at Carlisle in 2015 (see also O’Shea et al, 2020). The floodplain, its relief and near-natural functioning (foreground) have been detached and consumed by urban and railway development.

…”