Optimal Agent Framework: A Novel, Cost-Effective Model Articulation to Fill the Integration Gap between Agent-Based Modeling and Decision-Making

Abstract

Making proper decisions in today’s complex world is a challenging task for decision makers. A promising approach that can support decision makers to have a better understanding of complex systems is agent-based modeling (ABM). ABM has been developing during the last few decades as a methodology with many different applications and has enabled a better description of the dynamics of complex systems. However, the prescriptive facet of these applications is rarely portrayed. Adding a prescriptive decision-making (DM) aspect to ABM can support the decision makers in making better or, in some cases, optimized decisions for the complex problems as well as explaining the investigated phenomena. In this paper, first, the literature of DM with ABM is inquired and classified based on the methods of integration. Performing a scientometric analysis on the relevant literature lets us conclude that the number of publications attempting to integrate DM and ABM has not grown during the last two decades, while analysis of the current methodologies for integrating DM and ABM indicates that they have serious drawbacks. In this regard, a novel nature-inspired model articulation called optimal agent framework (OAF) has been proposed to ameliorate the disadvantages and enhance the realization of proper decisions in ABM at a relatively low computational cost. The framework is examined with the Bass diffusion model. The results of the simulation for the customized model developed by OAF have verified the feasibility of the framework. Moreover, sensitivity analyses on different agent populations, network structures, and marketing strategies have depicted the great potential of OAF to find the optimal strategies in various stochastic and unconventional conditions which have not been addressed prior to the implementation of the framework.