Testing the empirical shock arrival model using quadrature observations

Gopalswamy, Ν.; Mäkelä, P.; Xie, H.; Yashiro, S.

doi:10.1002/2013sw000945

Cited by 57 publications

(78 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…They showed that the leading-edge height and half-angular width of CMEs can be determined more accurately using multi-view data. Colaninno et al (2013) tracked nine CMEs continuously from the Sun to near Earth in SOHO and STEREO images and found that the time of arrival was within ±13 h. Gopalswamy et al (2013e) considered a set of 20 Earth-directed halos viewed by SOHO and STEREO in quadrature, so as to obtain the true earthward speed of CMEs. When the speeds were input to the empirical shock arrival (ESA) model, they found that the ESA model predicts the CME travel time within about 7.3 h, which is similar to the predictions by the ENLIL model.…”

Section: Cme Arrival At Earthmentioning

confidence: 99%

Short-term variability of the Sun-Earth system: an overview of progress made during the CAWSES-II period

Gopalswamy

Tsurutani

Yan

2015

Prog. in Earth and Planet. Sci.

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This paper presents an overview of results obtained during the CAWSES-II period on the short-term variability of the Sun and how it affects the near-Earth space environment. CAWSES-II was planned to examine the behavior of the solar-terrestrial system as the solar activity climbed to its maximum phase in solar cycle 24. After a deep minimum following cycle 23, the Sun climbed to a very weak maximum in terms of the sunspot number in cycle 24 (MiniMax24), so many of the results presented here refer to this weak activity in comparison with cycle 23. The short-term variability that has immediate consequence to Earth and geospace manifests as solar eruptions from closed-field regions and high-speed streams from coronal holes. Both electromagnetic (flares) and mass emissions (coronal mass ejections -CMEs) are involved in solar eruptions, while coronal holes result in high-speed streams that collide with slow wind forming the so-called corotating interaction regions (CIRs). Fast CMEs affect Earth via leading shocks accelerating energetic particles and creating large geomagnetic storms. CIRs and their trailing high-speed streams (HSSs), on the other hand, are responsible for recurrent small geomagnetic storms and extended days of auroral zone activity, respectively. The latter leads to the acceleration of relativistic magnetospheric 'killer' electrons. One of the major consequences of the weak solar activity is the altered physical state of the heliosphere that has serious implications for the shock-driving and storm-causing properties of CMEs. Finally, a discussion is presented on extreme space weather events prompted by the 23 July 2012 super storm event that occurred on the backside of the Sun. Many of these studies were enabled by the simultaneous availability of remote sensing and in situ observations from multiple vantage points with respect to the Sun-Earth line.

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Section: Cme Arrival At Earthmentioning

confidence: 99%

Short-term variability of the Sun-Earth system: an overview of progress made during the CAWSES-II period

Gopalswamy

Tsurutani

Yan

2015

Prog. in Earth and Planet. Sci.

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“…The black stars represent the higher of the two CME speeds derived from a geometric fit of observations from each of the two STEREO spacecraft (HELCATS catalogue). The green inverted triangles show the higher of the two CME speeds measured in the STEREO/ COR2 images by Gopalswamy et al (2013). The blue circles and blue triangles are the speeds resulting from multi-spacecraft modelling by Möstl et al (2014) and Shi et al (2015).…”

Section: Prediction Of Icme Arrival Timesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The inverted green triangles are the speed measurements in that STEREO/COR2 FOV in which the CME was closest to the limb (Tab. 1 in Gopalswamy et al 2013). The speeds resulting from multi-spacecraft modelling by Möstl et al (2014) or Shi et al (2015) are represented by filled blue circles and triangles, respectively.…”

Section: Cme Speed Determinationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We selected 12 more ICME events to increase our sample: six (between 2011 and 2012) from the ISEST catalogue 4 , one from Table 1 in Shi et al (2015) and five (in the years 2013 and 2014) from Table 1 in Mays et al (2015). In addition, the 20 events listed in Table 1 in Gopalswamy et al (2013) were also considered. Eight events in this list were already in our original sample.…”

Section: Nomentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Rouillard 2011;Colaninno et al 2013;Möstl et al 2014) and, as a consequence, to develop and validate new prediction techniques (e.g. Gopalswamy et al 2013). …”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Microwave radio emissions as a proxy for coronal mass ejection speed in arrival predictions of interplanetary coronal mass ejections at 1 AU

Matamoros

Klein

Trottet

2017

J. Space Weather Space Clim.

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The propagation of a coronal mass ejection (CME) to the Earth takes between about 15 h and several days. We explore whether observations of non-thermal microwave bursts, produced by near-relativistic electons via the gyrosynchrotron process, can be used to predict travel times of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) from the Sun to the Earth. In a first step, a relationship is established between the CME speed measured by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (SoHO/LASCO) near the solar limb and the fluence of the microwave burst. This relationship is then employed to estimate speeds in the corona of earthward-propagating CMEs. These speeds are fed into a simple empirical interplanetary acceleration model to predict the speed and arrival time of the ICMEs at Earth. The predictions are compared with observed arrival times and with the predictions based on other proxies, including soft X-rays (SXR) and coronographic measurements. We found that CME speeds estimated from microwaves and SXR predict the ICME arrival at the Earth with absolute errors of 11 ± 7 and 9 ± 7 h, respectively. A trend to underestimate the interplanetary travel times of ICMEs was noted for both techniques. This is consistent with the fact that in most cases of our test sample, ICMEs are detected on their flanks. Although this preliminary validation was carried out on a rather small sample of events (11), we conclude that microwave proxies can provide early estimates of ICME arrivals and ICME speeds in the interplanetary space. This method is limited by the fact that not all CMEs are accompanied by non-thermal microwave bursts. But its usefulness is enhanced by the relatively simple observational setup and the observation from ground, which makes the instrumentation less vulnerable to space weather hazards.

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Current status of CME/shock arrival time prediction

Zhao

Dryer

2014

Space Weather

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One of the major solar transients, coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and their related interplanetary shocks have severe space weather effects and become the focus of study for both solar and space scientists. Predicting their evolutions in the heliosphere and arrival times at Earth is an important component of the space weather predictions. Various kinds of models in this aspect have been developed during the past decades. In this paper, we will present a view of the present status (during Solar Cycle 24 in 2014) of the space weather's objective to predict the arrival of coronal mass ejections and their interplanetary shock waves at Earth. This status, by implication, is relevant to their arrival elsewhere in the solar system. Application of this prediction status is clearly appropriate for operational magnetospheric and ionospheric situations including A À > B À > C…solar system missions. We review current empirical models, expansion speed model, drag-based models, physics-based models (and their real-time prediction's statistical experience in Solar Cycle 23), and MHD models. New observations in Solar Cycle 24, including techniques/models, are introduced as they could be incorporated to form new prediction models. The limitations of the present models and the direction of further development are also suggested.

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Testing the empirical shock arrival model using quadrature observations

Cited by 57 publications

References 33 publications

Short-term variability of the Sun-Earth system: an overview of progress made during the CAWSES-II period

Short-term variability of the Sun-Earth system: an overview of progress made during the CAWSES-II period

Microwave radio emissions as a proxy for coronal mass ejection speed in arrival predictions of interplanetary coronal mass ejections at 1 AU

Current status of CME/shock arrival time prediction

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