Current status of CME/shock arrival time prediction

Abstract

One of the major solar transients, coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and their related interplanetary shocks have severe space weather effects and become the focus of study for both solar and space scientists. Predicting their evolutions in the heliosphere and arrival times at Earth is an important component of the space weather predictions. Various kinds of models in this aspect have been developed during the past decades. In this paper, we will present a view of the present status (during Solar Cycle 24 in 2014) of the space weather's objective to predict the arrival of coronal mass ejections and their interplanetary shock waves at Earth. This status, by implication, is relevant to their arrival elsewhere in the solar system. Application of this prediction status is clearly appropriate for operational magnetospheric and ionospheric situations including A À > B À > C…solar system missions. We review current empirical models, expansion speed model, drag-based models, physics-based models (and their real-time prediction's statistical experience in Solar Cycle 23), and MHD models. New observations in Solar Cycle 24, including techniques/models, are introduced as they could be incorporated to form new prediction models. The limitations of the present models and the direction of further development are also suggested.

The Physical Processes of CME/ICME Evolution

“…Finally, it should be noted that there are also various forms of empirical forecasting methods that rely on relationships between CME-driven shocks and CMEs, CME-associated flares, or type II radio bursts. Analytical models also exit as well as hybrid approaches that combine components of empirical and analytical models (e.g., Feng and Zhao 2006;Zhao and Dryer 2014;Zhao and Feng 2015;Zhao et al 2016, and references therein).…”

Scientific challenges in thermosphere-ionosphere forecasting – conclusions from the October 2014 NASA JPL community workshop

“…Zhao & Dryer 2014). For example, ToA predictions for individual events can be off by several hours (Colaninno et al 2013;Möstl et al 2014).…”

Climate, weather, space weather: model development in an operational context

“…The different types of perturbations (X-ray flares, SEPs, CMEs, coronal holes) find their correspondence in rather separated modeling communities (Zhao & Dryer, 2014;Luhmann et al, 2015;Barnes et al, 2016;Reiss et al, 2016;Cranmer et al, 2017;Murray et al, 2017). Further splitting of modeling activity occurs for regions closer to Earth (magnetosphere, ionosphere/thermosphere, Earth atmosphere and surface) because of traditional scientific domains, specific customer needs, as well as the physical processes involved (Lathuillère et al, 2002).…”