Various approaches to coral restoration have been developed to help increase rate of reef recovery from perturbations, among the most common of which is coral transplantation. Success is often evaluated based on short-term observations that capture only the initial phase of space colonization by coral transplants. Here, an individual-based model is developed to quantify uncertainty in future trajectories in experimental plots given past observations. Empirical data were used to estimate probabilistic growth, survival, and fission rates of Acropora pulchra and A. intermedia (order Scleractinia) in a sandy reef flat (Bolinao, Philippines). Simulations were initialized with different densities (25 or 50 transplants per species per 16 m 2 ) to forecast possible coral cover trajectories over a 5-year period. Given current conditions, there is risk of local extinction which is higher in low-density plots for both species, and higher for A. intermedia compared to A. pulchra regardless of density. While total coral cover is projected to increase, species composition in the future is more likely to be highly uneven. The model was used to quantify effect on recovery rate of protection from pulse anthropogenic disturbances, given different initial transplantation densities. When monitoring data are limited in time, stochastic models may be used to assess whether the restoration trajectory is heading toward the desired state and at what rate, and foresee system response to various adaptive interventions.
Implications for Practice• Coral cover may be restored in reef patches of several square meters after physical disturbance if the latter will not recur. • Members of the genus Acropora (order Scleractinia) are potential candidates for restoration because they grow quickly and can effectively reproduce asexually, provided local environmental conditions are suitable. • Differences exist among Acropora species in terms of growth and survival as well as competitive ability, factors that should be considered when choosing an appropriate combination, and transplant density of species to initiate coral population and community development in previously degraded reef areas.