Recently reported insect declines have raised both political and social concern. Although the declines have been attributed to land use and climate change, supporting evidence suffers from low taxonomic resolution, short time series, a focus on local scales, and the collinearity of the identified drivers. In this study, we conducted a systematic assessment of insect populations in southern Germany, which showed that differences in insect biomass and richness are highly context dependent. We found the largest difference in biomass between semi-natural and urban environments (−42%), whereas differences in total richness (−29%) and the richness of threatened species (−56%) were largest from semi-natural to agricultural environments. These results point to urbanization and agriculture as major drivers of decline. We also found that richness and biomass increase monotonously with increasing temperature, independent of habitat. The contrasting patterns of insect biomass and richness question the use of these indicators as mutual surrogates. Our study provides support for the implementation of more comprehensive measures aimed at habitat restoration in order to halt insect declines.
Changes in climate and land use are major threats to pollinating insects, an essential functional group. Here, we unravel the largely unknown interactive effects of both threats on seven pollinator taxa using a multiscale space-for-time approach across large climate and land-use gradients in a temperate region. Pollinator community composition, regional gamma diversity, and community dissimilarity (beta diversity) of pollinator taxa were shaped by climate-land-use interactions, while local alpha diversity was solely explained by their additive effects. Pollinator diversity increased with reduced land-use intensity (forest < grassland < arable land < urban) and high flowering-plant diversity at different spatial scales, and higher temperatures homogenized pollinator communities across regions. Our study reveals declines in pollinator diversity with land-use intensity at multiple spatial scales and regional community homogenization in warmer and drier climates. Management options at several scales are highlighted to mitigate impacts of climate change on pollinators and their ecosystem services.
1. Climate and land-use change are key drivers of environmental degradation in the Anthropocene, but too little is known about their interactive effects on biodiversity and ecosystem services. Long-term data on biodiversity trends are currently lacking. Furthermore, previous ecological studies have rarely considered climate and land use in a joint design, did not achieve variable independence or lost statistical power by not covering the full range of environmental gradients.2. Here, we introduce a multi-scale space-for-time study design to disentangle effects of climate and land use on biodiversity and ecosystem services. The site selection approach coupled extensive GIS-based exploration (i.e. using a Geographic information system) and correlation heatmaps with a crossed and nested design covering regional, landscape and local scales. Its implementation in Bavaria (Germany) resulted in a set of study plots that maximise the potential range and independence of environmental variables at different spatial scales. 3. Stratifying the state of Bavaria into five climate zones (reference period 1981-2010) and three prevailing land-use types, that is, near-natural, agriculture and | 515 Methods in Ecology and Evoluঞon REDLICH Et aL.
Climate and land-use change are key drivers of environmental degradation in the Anthropocene, but too little is known about their interactive effects on biodiversity and ecosystem services. Long-term data on biodiversity trends are currently lacking. Furthermore, previous ecological studies have rarely considered climate and land use in a joint design, did not achieve variable independence or lost statistical power by not covering the full range of environmental gradients. Here, we introduce a multi-scale space-for-time study design to disentangle effects of climate and land use on biodiversity and ecosystem services. The site selection approach coupled extensive GIS-based exploration and correlation heatmaps with a crossed and nested design covering regional, landscape and local scales. Its implementation in Bavaria (Germany) resulted in a set of study plots that maximizes the potential range and independence of environmental variables at different spatial scales. Stratifying the state of Bavaria into five climate zones and three prevailing land-use types, i.e. near-natural, agriculture and urban, resulted in 60 study regions covering a mean annual temperature gradient of 5.6-9.8 degree C and a spatial extent of 380x360 km. Within these regions, we nested 180 study plots located in contrasting local land-use types, i.e. forests, grasslands, arable land or settlement (local climate gradient 4.5-10 degree C). This approach achieved low correlations between climate and land-use (proportional cover) at the regional and landscape scale with |r<0.33| and |r<0.29|, respectively. Furthermore, using correlation heatmaps for local plot selection reduced potentially confounding relationships between landscape composition and configuration for plots located in forests, arable land and settlements. The suggested design expands upon previous research in covering a significant range of environmental gradients and including a diversity of dominant land-use types at different scales within different climatic contexts. It allows independent assessment of the relative contribution of multi-scale climate and land use on biodiversity and ecosystem services. Understanding potential interdependencies among global change drivers is essential to develop effective restoration and mitigation strategies against biodiversity decline, especially in expectation of future climatic changes. Importantly, this study also provides a baseline for long-term ecological monitoring programs.
Various approaches to coral restoration have been developed to help increase rate of reef recovery from perturbations, among the most common of which is coral transplantation. Success is often evaluated based on short-term observations that capture only the initial phase of space colonization by coral transplants. Here, an individual-based model is developed to quantify uncertainty in future trajectories in experimental plots given past observations. Empirical data were used to estimate probabilistic growth, survival, and fission rates of Acropora pulchra and A. intermedia (order Scleractinia) in a sandy reef flat (Bolinao, Philippines). Simulations were initialized with different densities (25 or 50 transplants per species per 16 m 2 ) to forecast possible coral cover trajectories over a 5-year period. Given current conditions, there is risk of local extinction which is higher in low-density plots for both species, and higher for A. intermedia compared to A. pulchra regardless of density. While total coral cover is projected to increase, species composition in the future is more likely to be highly uneven. The model was used to quantify effect on recovery rate of protection from pulse anthropogenic disturbances, given different initial transplantation densities. When monitoring data are limited in time, stochastic models may be used to assess whether the restoration trajectory is heading toward the desired state and at what rate, and foresee system response to various adaptive interventions. Implications for Practice• Coral cover may be restored in reef patches of several square meters after physical disturbance if the latter will not recur. • Members of the genus Acropora (order Scleractinia) are potential candidates for restoration because they grow quickly and can effectively reproduce asexually, provided local environmental conditions are suitable. • Differences exist among Acropora species in terms of growth and survival as well as competitive ability, factors that should be considered when choosing an appropriate combination, and transplant density of species to initiate coral population and community development in previously degraded reef areas.
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