Testing Near-Rationality Using Detailed Survey Data

Palmqvist, Stefan; Bryan, Michael

doi:10.2139/ssrn.938731

Cited by 5 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 16 publications

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“…With respect to inflation expectations, Inoue et al (2009)provide evidence that the response of consumers' expectations on news on inflation depend on the level of education. Palmqvist and Bryan (2005) emerge. For instance, the more educated people are the stronger is the link between HICP and inflation perceptions.…”

Section: Socioeconomic Characteristicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Euro Cash Changeover, Inflation Perceptions and the Media

Lamla

Lein

2010

SSRN Journal

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In the aftermath of the euro cash changeover consumers' inflation perceptions rose substantially in the euro area countries while actual inflation figures remained almost unchanged. During that period media reporting on the potentially large inflationary effect of the euro introduction intensified. In this paper we argue that the information set of the public has been distorted through the significant slant in the media. Employing an unique dataset for Germany, we provide evidence that media reporting has a statistically significant and economically meaningful impact on inflation perceptions and contributed to their sharp rise in the aftermath of the euro cash changeover.

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Section: Socioeconomic Characteristicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Euro Cash Changeover, Inflation Perceptions and the Media

Lamla

Lein

2010

SSRN Journal

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Formation of Rationally Heterogeneous Expectations

Pfajfar

2012

SSRN Journal

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This paper models expectation formation by taking into account that agents produce heterogeneous expectations due to model uncertainty, informational frictions and di¤erent capacities for processing information. We show that there are two general classes of steady states within this framework: those where strictly dominated forecasting rules vanish, and intrinsic heterogeneous steady states where a positive proportion of agents use a more costly perfect foresight. This demonstrates that intrinsic heterogeneity can also arise in a model where the forecasting rules are not equally costly, and do not exhibit identical performance in the long run.

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