Testing for a break at an unknown change-point: a test with known size in small samples

Greene, Clinton A.

doi:10.1016/s0165-1765(99)00073-7

Cited by 6 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 3 publications

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“…8,9 The disadvantage of this method is that it locates only one change-point. However, this restriction is not as important if the objective is to find out if and when a significant reduction in crashes began in a time series.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Readers who are interested in interval estimates are encouraged to follow up on the references provided. [7][8][9]12,13 Results Figure 1 shows the number of fatal crashes per month in New Zealand, between January 1990 and December 1997, that involved at least one male driver under the age of 25. The change-point was estimated to be around December 1992.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Since the crash data used is more likely to be Poisson distributed, 5,6 the Poisson change point estimator 7 is selected for this analysis instead of several other recent developments that are based on other types of distribution. 8,9 The disadvantage of this method is that it locates only one change-point. However, this restriction is not as important if the objective is to find out if and when a significant reduction in crashes began in a time series.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Fatal crashes involving young male drivers: a continuous time Poisson change‐point analysis

Tay

2001

Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health

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Background : In an effort to reduce road trauma, the New Zealand government implemented a series of intervention programs over the last decade, with young male drivers as the main target audience. Previous research, however, found little or no evidence that these programs had any impact on this group of drivers despite an apparent decrease in their crash involvement. Objective : To determine the approximate time when the decrease in the number of fatal crashes involving young male drivers occurred. Method : A Poisson change‐point estimator was used to locate the most likely point where a decrease in the average number of monthly crashes had occurred. Results : The most likely time of change was found to coincide with the time when the Transport Act 1992 was debated and passed in Parliament. The publicity given to the issue and the Government's signal of impending actions were sufficient to induce a significant change in the behaviours of young male drivers. Implications : This result can partially reconcile the difference between the apparent reduction in the number of fatal crashes involving young male drivers and the inability of previous studies to find a significant impact of the various intervention programs since the change occurred prior to the actual implementation of the programs. Nevertheless, it was argued that the implementation of the programs subsequently was necessary in sustaining the reduction.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Fatal crashes involving young male drivers: a continuous time Poisson change‐point analysis

Tay

2001

Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health

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“…The baseline specification that adds the GDP and wealth elasticities up to one is the preferred specification, because money adjusts then, as theoretically expected, one‐to‐one to changes in real and financial transactions in the long run. In order to check the stability of the results, Greene (1999) Min P tests are applied for possible breaks in Stage III of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). This stability test is based on the minimum probability value of a sequence of Chow forecast tests with an unknown breakpoint.…”

Section: Empirical Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

New Evidence on the Motives for Holding Euro Area Money

Bondt

2010

The Manchester School

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This study focuses on the role of equity and labour markets for holding euro area money. Equity affects money demand positively through wealth effects (financial transaction motive) and negatively via substitution effects from the expected return on equity (speculative motive). A precautionary motive is captured by the annual change in the unemployment rate. The empirical results show that equity and labour markets do matter for euro area money demand since 1983. This finding is robust across different proxies for the augmented motives and a shorter sample starting in 1994. Copyright � 2010 The Author. Journal compilation � 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd and The University of Manchester.

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“…Furthermore, an econometric model of the determinants of the changes in tariffs would not be appropriate with the limited number of observations available and in the presence of 'non-quantifiable' institutional and political factors on these industries. in the slope of the variables, between the different institutional regimes are significant 10 (Chow 1960, Greene 1999.…”

Section: Data Set and Methodologymentioning

confidence: 97%

Incentive Regulation and Efficient Pricing

Giulietti

Price

2005

Ann Public & Coop Econ

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Abstract**: One objective of introducing incentive regulation to the newly privatized UK utilities over the past 20 years was to encourage efficient pricing structures. Caps have been imposed on average price levels, giving firms freedom to rebalance amongst prices within the basket. We test how firms have responded to the incentives within such discretion through an extensive review of the relative prices charged within UK price capped industries. We find surprisingly little response to these incentives, suggesting that strategic behaviour dominates short‐term profit incentives even after the introduction or threat of competition.

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Testing for a break at an unknown change-point: a test with known size in small samples

Cited by 6 publications

References 3 publications

Fatal crashes involving young male drivers: a continuous time Poisson change‐point analysis

Fatal crashes involving young male drivers: a continuous time Poisson change‐point analysis

New Evidence on the Motives for Holding Euro Area Money

Incentive Regulation and Efficient Pricing

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