Fatal crashes involving young male drivers: a continuous time Poisson change‐point analysis

Abstract

Background : In an effort to reduce road trauma, the New Zealand government implemented a series of intervention programs over the last decade, with young male drivers as the main target audience. Previous research, however, found little or no evidence that these programs had any impact on this group of drivers despite an apparent decrease in their crash involvement. Objective : To determine the approximate time when the decrease in the number of fatal crashes involving young male drivers occurred. Method : A Poisson change‐point estimator was used to locate the most likely point where a decrease in the average number of monthly crashes had occurred. Results : The most likely time of change was found to coincide with the time when the Transport Act 1992 was debated and passed in Parliament. The publicity given to the issue and the Government's signal of impending actions were sufficient to induce a significant change in the behaviours of young male drivers. Implications : This result can partially reconcile the difference between the apparent reduction in the number of fatal crashes involving young male drivers and the inability of previous studies to find a significant impact of the various intervention programs since the change occurred prior to the actual implementation of the programs. Nevertheless, it was argued that the implementation of the programs subsequently was necessary in sustaining the reduction.

A Multinomial Logit Model of Pedestrian–Vehicle Crash Severity

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Developing Buy-In for Positive Behavior Support in Secondary Settings

“…Also, it is possible that substantive decreases and maintained lower levels of ODRs were sustained by additional training and support. This is similar to findings by Tay (2001), who found that awareness of a policy may lead to actual decreases in a targeted outcome and that implementation of policy ensures that the desired outcomes are maintained.…”

Drivers’ perceptions and reactions to roadside memorials

“…Also, 47% of our sample felt that roadside memorials were an eyesore while only 10.5% of their sample felt the same. Again, these differences could be attributed to the fact that younger drivers had higher crash fatality rates (Tay, 2001(Tay, , 2005a and were often the ones memorialised (Collins and Rhine, 2003).…”

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