Terrestrial Stilling Projected to Continue in the Northern Hemisphere Mid‐Latitudes

Abstract

The near‐surface wind speed over land has declined in recent decades, a trend known as terrestrial stilling (TS). However, recent studies have indicated a reversal of the TS during the last decade, triggering renovated interest in the future wind speed changes. This study examines the TS over the Northern Hemisphere (NH) land areas and explores its future changes under Model Inter‐comparison Projection Phase 6 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios. The results show that the NH mid‐latitude TS will likely continue during the whole 21st century under mid‐to‐high greenhouse warmings (SSPs‐245, 370, and 585). Nevertheless, if the world reduces carbon emissions substantially (SSP‐126), the TS will be interrupted and likely reversed after the mid‐21st century. The projected TS shows seasonal differences, with the largest (smallest) decreasing trends of wind speed in boreal summer (winter). Moreover, the TS reversal during the last decade is suggested as a multi‐decadal fluctuation related to the Pacific and Atlantic multi‐decadal oscillations. In addition, this study proposes that increased upper‐air warming in the future climate could play a key role in reducing the NH mid‐latitude surface wind speed. The continuing TS provides strong implications for the near‐surface environment and wind energy development, particularly for countries in the NH mid‐latitudes.

Projected changes in synoptic circulations over Europe and their implications for summer precipitation: A CMIP6 perspective

“…This expansion translates into more days with weather more akin to that of southern Europe. That agrees with a projected weakening of near-surface wind speed over land under anticipated high greenhouse warmings (Deng et al, 2022). This increase in summer days dominated by weaker meridional pressure gradients has also been reported in previous studies focusing on central Europe (Herrera-Lormendez et al, 2021) and in the prior generation of CMIP GCMs (Otero et al, 2018).…”

Impact of Surface Roughness Changes on Surface Wind Speed over Western Europe: A Study with a Regional Climate Model

“…These factors were also discussed in other studies, e.g. Azorin-Molina et al (2018); Deng et al (2022); Minola et al (2022); Zha et al (2021). Deng et al (2022) also found that reversal of stilling was reproduced in a group of CMIP6 models, but only for the period of 2010 to 2030.…”

“…Azorin-Molina et al (2018); Deng et al (2022); Minola et al (2022); Zha et al (2021). Deng et al (2022) also found that reversal of stilling was reproduced in a group of CMIP6 models, but only for the period of 2010 to 2030. However, Dunn et al (2022) unveiled that this reversal of global stilling was overestimated due to a change in how calm winds were encoded (as missing if < 1 m.s -1 , before if < 0.5 m.s -1 ) in part of the global station network databases since 2013.…”

Impact of Surface Roughness Changes on Surface Wind Speed Over Western Europe: A Study With the Regional Climate Model RACMO

“…The three main decadal oscillations having the largest impact on wind speed variation are the Tropical Northern Atlantic Index (TNA), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation. These factors were also discussed in other studies, for example, Azorin-Molina et al (2018), Deng et al (2022), Minola et al (2022), andZha et al (2021). Deng et al (2022) also found that reversal of stilling was reproduced in a group of CMIP6 models, but only for the period of -2030.…”

“…Deng et al (2021) suggested that the stilling in the northern hemisphere could be explained by multiple causes including changes in large scale circulation, vegetation and land-use, and greenhouse gas concentration increase. The stilling is likely to be preserved and closely associated with warming intensity till the end of century by CMIP6 simulations, i.e., the higher warming scenario, the larger the decline in SWS (Deng et al, 2022) A review of worldwide terrestrial stilling and its potential causes can be found in McVicar et al (2012) and Wu et al (2018).…”