Ten years of modeling the Deepwater Horizon oil spill

Ainsworth, Cameron H.; Chassignet, Eric P.; French-McCay, Deborah; Beegle-Krause, CJ; Berenshtein, Igal; Englehardt, James D.; Fiddaman, T.; Huang, Haosheng; Huettel, Markus; Justić, Dubravko; Kourafalou, Villy; Liu, Yonggang; Mauritzen, Cecilie; Murawski, Steven A.; Morey, Steven L.; Özgökmen, Tamay M.; Paris, Claire B.; Ruzicka, James J.; Saul, Steven; Shepherd, J. G.; Socolofsky, Scott A.; Gabriele, H. Solo; Sutton, Tracey; Weisberg, Robert H.; Wilson, Charles A.; Zheng, Lianyuan; Zheng, Yangxing

doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2021.105070

Cited by 22 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 155 publications

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“…However, these toxicological studies have shown to be poor predictors of population impacts in real-world situations, both in response to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, as well as other spills (Fodrie et al 2014;Shelton et al 2018). This growing body of ecosystem modeling research at varying levels of complexity indicates both pathways for stability, as we demonstrated, as well as pathways for major population scale impacts, depending on model assumptions and domain (Ainsworth et al 2021).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 63%

Fishery Closures, More Than Predator Release, Increased Persistence of Nearshore Fishes and Invertebrates to the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill

Oken

Able

Mutsert

et al. 2023

Estuaries and Coasts

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The Deepwater Horizon disaster released 4.9 million barrels of oil into the Gulf of Mexico.Despite clear evidence of exposure and toxicity, there has been little evidence of population-level declines of most nearshore fish and invertebrate populations. Several hypotheses have been proposed to explain this paradox. Two possibilities include a fishing moratorium following the spill and reductions in predation pressure following predator die-offs. We tested both using mass-balance food web models to quantify direct and indirect population sensitivity to perturbations in fishing pressure and bird and dolphin mortality. In doing so, we developed a new method allowing us to quantify responses of one functional group to changes in fishing pressure across all fished groups. We inferred support for a compensatory mechanism, either release from fishing or predation, when populations modeled without any oil-induced mortality displayed large increases to negative perturbations in fishing or predation. We found the fishing moratorium to be the most likely potential mitigating mechanism, especially for penaeid shrimp, menhaden, and blue crabs. Dolphin mortality may explain the stability of small sciaenids.Increased seabird mortality did not lead to major changes in any functional group we examined.The consideration of indirect trophic pathways within the food web model produced a wide range of plausible population responses, especially responses to increases in predator mortality.Broadly, this work shows that oil spills are one driver of population dynamics within a broader socioecological system, and understanding oil spill impacts on populations requires consideration of this complexity.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 63%

Fishery Closures, More Than Predator Release, Increased Persistence of Nearshore Fishes and Invertebrates to the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill

Oken

Able

Mutsert

et al. 2023

Estuaries and Coasts

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“…In oil spill modeling NAM has been applied at 12 km horizontal resolution, with 1-h time step, by French-McCay et al [62]. In addition, the NOAA NCEP provides the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) system for weather reanalysis, (http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/rreanl/, accessed on 12 March 2023) having a 3-h time step and 0.3 • (~32 km) spatial resolution over North America [82,83]. The NARR project has been applied in oil-spill modeling by French-McCay et al [62,84].…”

Section: Wind Fieldsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modes of Operation and Forcing in Oil Spill Modeling: State-of-Art, Deficiencies and Challenges

Keramea

Kokkos

Zodiatis

et al. 2023

JMSE

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Oil spills may have devastating effects on marine ecosystems, public health, the economy, and coastal communities. As a consequence, scientific literature contains various up-to-date, advanced oil spill predictive models, capable of simulating the trajectory and evolution of an oil slick generated by the accidental release from ships, hydrocarbon production, or other activities. To predict in near real time oil spill transport and fate with increased reliability, these models are usually coupled operationally to synoptic meteorological, hydrodynamic, and wave models. The present study reviews the available different met-ocean forcings that have been used in oil-spill modeling, simulating hypothetical or real oil spill scenarios, worldwide. Seven state-of-the-art oil-spill models are critically examined in terms of the met-ocean data used as forcing inputs in the simulation of twenty-three case studies. The results illustrate that most oil spill models are coupled to different resolution, forecasting meteorological and hydrodynamic models, posing, however, limited consideration in the forecasted wave field (expressed as the significant wave height, the wave period, and the Stokes drift) that may affect oil transport, especially at the coastal areas. Moreover, the majority of oil spill models lack any linkage to the background biogeochemical conditions; hence, limited consideration is given to processes such as oil biodegradation, photo-oxidation, and sedimentation. Future advancements in oil-spill modeling should be directed towards the full operational coupling with high-resolution atmospheric, hydrodynamic, wave, and biogeochemical models, improving our understanding of the relative impact of each physical and oil weathering process.

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“…9. Methods development included improved data collection, analysis of synthesized datasets, and expanded and improved models, which can be transferred and applied to other systems (e.g., Hole et al 2019;Androulidakis et al 2020a, b;Ainsworth et al 2021). Process understanding helps guide future research and sets up a framework for determining the relative importance of processes influencing transport at multiple spatial scales (submeso-and meso-scale to regional to Gulf-wide) within the GoM and positions us to compare the importance of these factors to other large river-dominated coastal systems.…”

Section: Gomri Legacymentioning

confidence: 99%

Transport Processes in the Gulf of Mexico Along the River-Estuary-Shelf-Ocean Continuum: a Review of Research from the Gulf of Mexico Research Initiative

Justić

Kourafalou

Mariotti

et al. 2021

Estuaries and Coasts

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Estuarine and coastal geomorphology, biogeochemistry, water quality, and coastal food webs in river-dominated shelves of the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) are modulated by transport processes associated with river inputs, winds, waves, tides, and deep-ocean/continental shelf interactions. For instance, transport processes control the fate of river-borne sediments, which in turn affect coastal land loss. Similarly, transport of freshwater, nutrients, and carbon control the dynamics of eutrophication, hypoxia, harmful algal blooms, and coastal acidification. Further, freshwater inflow transports pesticides, herbicides, heavy metals, and oil into receiving estuaries and coastal systems. Lastly, transport processes along the continuum from the rivers and estuaries to coastal and shelf areas and adjacent open ocean (abbreviated herein as “river-estuary-shelf-ocean”) regulate the movements of organisms, including the spatial distributions of individuals and the exchange of genetic information between distinct subpopulations. The Gulf of Mexico Research Initiative (GoMRI) provided unprecedented opportunities to study transport processes along the river-estuary-shelf-ocean continuum in the GoM. The understanding of transport at multiple spatial and temporal scales in this topographically and dynamically complex marginal sea was improved, allowing for more accurate forecasting of the fate of oil and other constituents. For this review, we focus on five specific transport themes: (i) wetland, estuary, and shelf exchanges; (ii) river-estuary coupling; (iii) nearshore and inlet processes; (iv) open ocean transport processes; and (v) river-induced fronts and cross-basin transport. We then discuss the relevancy of GoMRI findings on the transport processes for ecological connectivity and oil transport and fate. We also examine the implications of new findings for informing the response to future oil spills, and the management of coastal resources and ecosystems. Lastly, we summarize the research gaps identified in the many studies and offer recommendations for continuing the momentum of the research provided by the GoMRI effort. A number of uncertainties were identified that occurred in multiple settings. These include the quantification of sediment, carbon, dissolved gasses and nutrient fluxes during storms, consistent specification of the various external forcings used in analyses, methods for smooth integration of multiscale advection mechanisms across different flow regimes, dynamic coupling of the atmosphere with sub-mesoscale and mesoscale phenomena, and methods for simulating finer-scale dynamics over long time periods. Addressing these uncertainties would allow the scientific community to be better prepared to predict the fate of hydrocarbons and their impacts to the coastal ocean, rivers, and marshes in the event of another spill in the GoM.

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Ten years of modeling the Deepwater Horizon oil spill

Cited by 22 publications

References 155 publications

Fishery Closures, More Than Predator Release, Increased Persistence of Nearshore Fishes and Invertebrates to the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill

Fishery Closures, More Than Predator Release, Increased Persistence of Nearshore Fishes and Invertebrates to the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill

Modes of Operation and Forcing in Oil Spill Modeling: State-of-Art, Deficiencies and Challenges

Transport Processes in the Gulf of Mexico Along the River-Estuary-Shelf-Ocean Continuum: a Review of Research from the Gulf of Mexico Research Initiative

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