Rabalais, N. N., Turner, R. E., Díaz, R. J., and Justić, D. 2009. Global change and eutrophication of coastal waters. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 66: 1528–1537. The cumulative effects of global change, including climate change, increased population, and more intense industrialization and agribusiness, will likely continue and intensify the course of eutrophication in estuarine and coastal waters. As a result, the symptoms of eutrophication, such as noxious and harmful algal blooms, reduced water quality, loss of habitat and natural resources, and severity of hypoxia (oxygen depletion) and its extent in estuaries and coastal waters will increase. Global climate changes will likely result in higher water temperatures, stronger stratification, and increased inflows of freshwater and nutrients to coastal waters in many areas of the globe. Both past experience and model forecasts suggest that these changes will result in enhanced primary production, higher phytoplankton and macroalgal standing stocks, and more frequent or severe hypoxia. The negative consequences of increased nutrient loading and stratification may be partly, but only temporarily, compensated by stronger or more frequent tropical storm activity in low and mid-latitudes. In anticipation of the negative effects of global change, nutrient loadings to coastal waters need to be reduced now, so that further water quality degradation is prevented.

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A 20+ year data set of the size of the hypoxic zone off the Louisiana-Texas coast is analyzed to reveal insights about what causes variation in the size of the hypoxic zone in summer, the accumulation of carbon storage in sediments, and pelagic and sediment oxygen demand. The results of models support the conclusion that some of this variation can be explained by a higher sedimentary oxygen demand, which may be larger than water column respiration rates in summer. Proxies for organic loading to sediments reveal that carbon losses continue after accumulation, and results from other studies indicate that sediment oxygen demand is directly related to surface water phytoplankton production, which has increased because of higher nutrient loading from the Mississippi River watershed. The potential size of the hypoxic zone for a given nitrogen load has increased as a result and has doubled from 1980 to 2000. The development of widespread hypoxia after the early 1980s and its consequences could, therefore, be considered a shift to an alternate ecosystem state. The Action Plan for Reducing, Mitigating, and Controlling Hypoxia in the Northern Gulf of Mexico goal of reducing the size of the hypoxic zone to an average of 5000 km2 by 2015 becomes more difficult to achieve for every year there is no significant reduction in nutrient loading. The decisions made to reduce the size of the hypoxic zone must incorporate these nonlinear responses and, we think, err on the side of caution in assuming that existing management efforts are sufficient to restore water quality on this shelf. The legacy of a higher sediment respiratory demand following eutrophication should apply to other coastal systems.

The effects of nutrient loading from the Mississippi River basin on the areal extent of hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico were examined using a novel application of a dissolved oxygen model for a river. The model, driven by river nitrogen load and a simple parameterization of ocean dynamics, reproduced 17 yr of observed hypoxia location and extent, subpycnocline oxygen consumption, and cross-pycnocline oxygen flux. With Monte Carlo analysis, we illustrate through hindcasts back to 1968 that extensive regions of low oxygen were not common before the mid-1970s. The Mississippi River Watershed/Gulf of Mexico Hypoxia Task Force set a goal to reduce the 5-yr running average size of the Gulf's hypoxic zone to less than 5,000 km 2 by 2015 and suggested that a 30% reduction from the 1980-1996 average nitrogen load is needed to reach that goal. Here we show that 30% might not be sufficient to reach that goal when year-to-year variability in ocean dynamics is considered.

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Marine diatoms require dissolved silicate to form an external shell, and their growth becomes Si-limited when the atomic ratio of silicate to dissolved inorganic nitrogen (Si:DIN) approaches 1:1, also known as the ''Redfield ratio.'' Fundamental changes in the diatom-to-zooplanktonto-higher trophic level food web should occur when this ratio falls below 1:1 and the proportion of diatoms in the phytoplankton community is reduced. We quantitatively substantiate these predictions by using a variety of data from the Mississippi River continental shelf, a system in which the Si:DIN loading ratio has declined from around 3:1 to 1:1 during this century because of land-use practices in the watershed. We suggest that, on this shelf, when the Si:DIN ratio in the river decreases to less than 1:1, then (i) copepod abundance changes from >75% to <30% of the total mesozooplankton, (ii) zooplankton fecal pellets become a minor component of the in situ primary production consumed, and (iii) bottom-water oxygen consumption rates become less dependent on relatively fast-sinking (diatom-rich) organic matter packaged mostly as zooplankton fecal pellets. This coastal ecosystem appears to be a pelagic food web dynamically poised to be either a food web composed of diatoms and copepods or one with potentially disruptive harmful algal blooms. The system is directed between these two ecosystem states by Mississippi River water quality, which is determined by land-use practices far inland.Estuarine and marine primary productivity is generally related directly to nutrient (especially nitrogen) loading (1-6), which is increasing widely (4, 7), sometimes causing noxious algal blooms, low bottom-water oxygen concentrations, and fisheries losses (7-11). When nutrient loads increase, the ratios of essential nutrients may change, as they have in several large rivers (12). The constraints of ecological stoichiometry can be used to trace causal interactions within ecosystems, most commonly as DIN (dissolved inorganic nitrogen-the sum of ammonia, nitrite, and nitrate):phosphorus ratios (13,14). Nitrate is Ͼ95% of the DIN in the Mississippi River (15), and the dissolved elemental silicate:nitrate ratios in the lower Mississippi River have changed from around 3:1 to 1:1 during the past 40 years (Fig. 1). These ratio changes have been hypothesized to have affected diatoms in the offshore phytoplankton community (15, 16) through physiological limitations imposed on diatoms when forming their silica shells. Marine diatoms have a 1:1::Si:N atomic ratio in their biomass (17), implying that reductions in silicate supply below a Si:DIN ratio of 1:1 may inhibit their growth. The supply of silicate to surface waters of the equatorial Pacific, for example, appears to regulate new phytoplankton production, which is mostly diatoms (18). Large zooplankton predators that consume diatoms or diatom predators produce fecal pellets that sink at a rate around 50-100 m per day (19). These fecal pellets are important substrates for aerobic decomposition in the w...

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